Even because the Rangers Slide, Corey Seager Is Raking

The Rangers have been sputtering, dropping 15 of their final 19 since August 15 to show a 3.5-game AL West lead right into a three-game deficit, with the Astros, who simply swept a three-game sequence from them at Globe Life Field, and Mariners each above them. Yet even because the group’s offense has dried up, Corey Seager has been on a tear. Since getting back from a sprained proper thumb initially of August, the Rangers shortstop has homered 13 occasions in 30 video games; this previous week, he lastly amassed sufficient plate appearances to take over the AL leads in each batting common and wRC+. If not for Shohei Ohtani, Seager would have a fairly first rate case for an MVP award, even along with his absences.

Seager solely missed 9 video games as a consequence of his thumb sprain, which he suffered on July 21 sliding into second base in a sport in opposition to the Dodgers. That was his second journey to the injured record this 12 months, as he additionally missed 31 video games from April 12–May 17 as a consequence of a left hamstring pressure. Yet the interruptions haven’t hindered him in any respect.

The form of his contribution has various at occasions, however Seager’s WRC+ has been fairly constant throughout these three stretches. Looking at his month-to-month splits, he’s posted a 177 wRC+ in each month save for May (130) and September (118), although after all the latter is barely underway (it doesn’t assist that he’s 0-for-6 since I began scripting this, sigh). Because of his time missed, he didn’t have sufficient plate appearances to qualify for the league lead in any fee stats — a participant should have 3.1 per group sport — till September 1:

Seager entered Thursday with a 19-point lead over the Rays’ Yandy Díaz in batting common and nearly tied with Ohtani in wRC+ (he was two factors forward getting into Wednesday). Ohtani is now six factors forward in slugging share and 11 in on-base share.

Ohtani’s offensive contributions as a DH are sufficient to put him within the AL lead in our model of place participant WAR with 6.5, 1.1 WAR forward of Seager and 1.0 forward of Julio Rodríguez. But in Baseball Reference’s model of WAR, Seager has a 6.1–5.9 edge over Ohtani, although the purpose is quite moot given the latter’s 4.1 pitching WAR.

Ohtani, who received’t pitch once more this 12 months as a consequence of a UCL tear, is near a lock to win the league’s MVP award, however absent a two-way unicorn, Seager can be effectively positioned to win regardless of his missed time. Even leaving apart pitchers who’ve often received the award, there’s precedent in honoring a dominant participant even when he was shelved for a major stretch. The finest instance of that is George Brett, who performed in simply 117 video games in 1980, the 12 months he chased a .400 batting common and received the slash-stat Triple Crown with a .390/.454/.664 line, that whereas additionally main the majors in wRC+ (198) and WAR (9.1). Among pre-expansion period place gamers, Cubs catcher Gabby Hartnett received in 1935 after taking part in in 116 out of 154 video games and hitting .344/.404/.545 (154 wRC+, third-best within the NL).

The presence of Ohtani signifies that Seager received’t win, however there’s no disgrace in that. What the 29-year-old shortstop is doing is spectacular sufficient and deserves a more in-depth look. The very first thing that stands out when appraising his 2023 stats is simply how exhausting he’s hitting the ball:

Seager is setting profession highs in exit velocity and barrel fee and is close to a excessive in hard-hit fee as effectively, all whereas inserting within the 98th percentile in all three of these stats. Only within the pandemic-shortened 2020 season did he even method these numbers, however he now has almost 80% extra batted ball occasions than in that shortened season.

Beyond that, you may see that he’s been fairly constant by way of his groundball and fly ball charges save for 2021, his remaining season with the Dodgers and one which was marred by his lacking two and a half months as a consequence of a proper hand fracture. Similar to this season, he was an absolute beast upon returning, batting .335/.417/.592 (168 wRC+) from July 30 onward, in comparison with .265/.361/.422 (115 wRC+) earlier than; even so, his groundball charges had been up in each segments of his season.

Seager isn’t pulling the ball greater than ordinary, however he’s pulling it within the air at a career-high clip. Of the 26 occasions he’s pulled a fly ball this 12 months, 14 have left the yard; final 12 months, he set profession highs in each classes, with 15 homers on 37 pulled flies, for a fee slightly below this 12 months’s mark. By comparability, in 2021, he hit simply 9 such balls, 5 of which changed into homers. A great little bit of this owes one thing to Seager’s transfer from Dodger Stadium to Globe Life Field; his newish ballpark is 4 ft shorter to the appropriate subject nook than his outdated one (326 versus 330) and 11 ft shorter to proper middle (374 ft versus 385). That solely interprets to a two-point distinction in our park dwelling run components for lefties (104 for Globe Life Park, 102 for Dodger Stadium), however it does seem that Seager has been taking intention at proper subject greater than ever.

I’ll return to the topic of Seager’s pull fee, however first, let’s observe that even when he’s not pulling the ball, he’s doing a ton of harm:

That’s all grounders, liners, and fly balls hit to middle or the alternative subject. Seager was equally productive on this realm in 2020, however he’s carried out it this 12 months for nearly twice as lengthy. This is a day behind, however getting into Wednesday, his 210 wRC+ on this context ranked ninth within the majors:

Back to the topic of Seager’s pull tendency: as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello famous this previous winter, he was damage greater than any hitter final 12 months as a consequence of infield shifts, which he confronted a staggering 93% of the time. By Statcast’s numbers, Seager went 6-for-107 (.056) on grounders pulled in opposition to the shift, an enormous a part of the rationale he completed the season at .245/.317/.455 (115 wRC+) general, setting full-season lows in all 4 of these marks. By Petriello’s estimate, taking into consideration varied Statcast measures (exit velocity, launch angle, hit distance, and spray angles), Seager would have hit .278/.347/.489 had he not been shifted in opposition to.

With the shift now banned, Seager stood to enhance in 2023. I can’t replicate Petriello’s full evaluation, however I can illustrate Seager’s enchancment in different methods. Here’s a year-to-year comparability of his precise and estimated efficiency on batted balls that traveled lower than 220 ft (the cutoff Petriello used), no matter infield alignment:

The first set of numbers covers batted balls of all stripes. Seager has hit these balls a bit tougher this 12 months, however the anticipated numbers are very related. His precise numbers present an enormous enchancment, with good points of 129 factors of batting common and 168 of slugging share. He’s only one hit shy of matching final 12 months’s whole on such balls in 100 fewer at-bats. Wow!

Looking at simply the groundballs, the good points are even greater, and we are able to see the impression in anticipated stats that comes with Seager including some further oomph within the type of exit velo. It’s value noting that he’s pulled fewer of these grounders this 12 months relative to final (50.4% versus 56.3%), in order that’s having some impression upon the stats as effectively. You can get a way of the impression within the comparability of the anticipated stats on pulled groundballs, and once more observe that the precise good points for 2023 relative to ’22 are large.

Where I in contrast Seager’s 2022 and ’23 outcomes on balls not pulled utilizing our knowledge from Sports Info Systems, I assumed it will be value exhibiting the Statcast precise and anticipated numbers after filtering out solely the pulled grounders:

Even after we exclude the kind of batted balls most certainly to be swallowed up by infield shifts, which account for about 29% of his batted balls final 12 months and 24.6% of his batted balls this 12 months, Seager has posted large good points. Keep in thoughts that his general xwOBAs on contact (xwOBACON) had been .413 for final 12 months and .504 for this this 12 months; excluding these largely unproductive pulled grounders, the previous rises 55 factors, the latter 59 factors, which is to say that that side is definitely fairly even. We may also see from the final set of numbers that Seager was far in need of his anticipated stats final 12 months, however he’s proper on the cash this 12 months; observe that his xSLG is simply three factors increased than his precise SLG.

This is the model of Seager the Rangers hoped they had been getting once they signed him to that large 10-year, $325 million deal simply earlier than the lockout in 2021. Unfortunately, his sturdiness — or lack thereof — is a part of the bundle; we’re speaking a few participant who’s appeared in over 100 video games simply twice within the final six seasons, although barring disaster, he’ll accomplish that once more this 12 months. As I famous beforehand, Ezeqiuel Duran did a superb job of filling in at shortstop throughout Seager’s absences, batting .291/.354/.478 in 147 PA, although he’s slumped currently filling in for the injured Josh Jung at third base, hitting .263/.326/.325 (80 wRC+) since August 7, when he took over the recent nook.

Duran is hardly the one Ranger who has slumped in the course of the group’s skid (Adolis García, Jonah Heim, and Leody Taveras have all been significantly unproductive throughout their 4–15 slide), which has knocked the Rangers to half a sport out of the third Wild Card spot behind the Blue Jays (77–63). As so typically occurs, the group’s spot within the playoffs could come right down to these video games key gamers have missed as a consequence of accidents. It’s robust to pin the blame on Seager on condition that he’s tied for his profession excessive in WAR, but when the Rangers blow this, these absences might be remembered.