Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Defensive Rebirth Paints Path to MVP Future

If I’ve one criticism of Shohei Ohtani, it’s that he has singlehandedly ruined baseball’s nice parlor discussions. Admittedly, that is the one legitimate criticism of Ohtani that I can consider. But questions like “Which player would you want to start a franchise with?” or “Who’s the most talented ballplayer you’ve ever seen?” are a lot much less enjoyable now than they have been a decade in the past. First particular person to reply simply says, “Ohtani,” and there’s a short however grave silence till somebody pipes up and asks if anybody is watching the brand new season of Billions.

Setting Ohtani apart, Fernando Tatis Jr. could be on my quick listing of most proficient or dynamic baseball gamers I’ve had the great fortune to witness. In the previous, I’d in contrast his physicality to that of a 3–4 exterior linebacker, however watching him scramble across the diamond is like watching an alien who’s holding one thing in reserve so he doesn’t get outed by the people. If that’s his purpose, Tatis isn’t doing a terrific job of mixing in.

When Tatis returned from his injury- and suspension-enforced absence, he discovered Xander Bogaerts taking part in shortstop for a staff that already had extra shortstops than it may use. When it grew to become clear that Tatis was sure for the outfield, seemingly completely, I felt no small measure of unhappiness. That’s to not say that he was shortstop. As a rookie, he had the worst fielding proportion and second-worst defensive WAR of any of the 27 gamers who spent greater than 700 innings on the place. He made some defensive strides in 2020, and if his ’21 season hadn’t been partially derailed by a shoulder harm that compelled the transfer to the outfield, then the PED suspension, then Bogaerts, and so forth, perhaps expertise would have molded him right into a spectacular defensive shortstop.

But there’s a silver lining to this: the bodily presents that made Tatis such a tantalizing shortstop have already turned him into an distinctive defensive outfielder. Obviously that was going to be the case; this is likely one of the quickest gamers in baseball with one of many strongest throwing arms and nil compunction about flinging himself across the area in pursuit of a batted ball. And a transfer to the outfield would give him extra time to react to the ball off the bat and cut back the complexity of the performs he’d need to make. If it comes right down to operating, catching, and throwing, virtually no one does any of these issues higher than Tatis.

The Athletic’s Padres beat author, Dennis Lin, posed this query two months in the past, principally as quickly because it grew to become affordable to surprise out loud: “Is Fernando Tatis Jr. already the best defensive right fielder in baseball?” Padres supervisor Bob Melvin in contrast Tatis, who on the time had about 70 profession skilled begins in proper area, to Ichiro Suzuki and Mookie Betts.

Tatis has the spectacular just about beneath management. He has had 9 alternatives to catch what Baseball Savant calls a four-star fly ball, or one which has a catch chance between 26% and 50%. He’s hauled in eight of them. Out of 93 outfielders on Baseball Savant’s catch chance leaderboard, the one one with the next ratio on such catches is Cody Bellinger, who’s had solely two four-star makes an attempt taking part in most of his video games in tiny Wrigley Field. But the routine, or the slightly-more-difficult-than-routine, is what dogged Tatis when he was on the grime. That’s not the case. On fly balls with a catch chance between 26% and 95%, Tatis is 49-for-52. Only Bellinger, by a 3rd of a proportion level, has a greater catch ratio on these performs.

Exactly 100 gamers present up on all three of Baseball Savant’s leaderboards for dash velocity, outfield arm power, and outfield leap. Tatis is considered one of simply 4 outfielders within the prime 20 in all three classes, plus OAA.

He’s maintaining good firm; Rodríguez leads all outfielders in OAA this season, and Kiermaier is likely one of the finest defenders of his era.

Here’s the enjoyable half: Tatis has velocity and arm power the likes of which few different outfielders can match, however after a bit rummage round within the numbers, it looks as if he’s nonetheless a bit uncooked. As good as he’s now, he may get higher.

Baseball Savant breaks outfield leap into two elements: response, which is distance coated within the first 1.5 seconds after the ball is hit; and burst, which is distance coated within the 1.5 seconds after that. Tatis is top-10 in burst however merely common in each response distance and route effectivity. Even being common after taking part in lower than a season of outfield within the execs is fairly spectacular, but when Tatis needs to, he may most likely squeeze one other few ft of vary out of his bodily presents by refining his outfield play.

There’s additionally the potential of an eventual transfer to middle area. Tatis would most likely be taking part in there already if the Padres didn’t have already got a reasonably good middle fielder in Trent Grisham. (If Tatis is Betts, Grisham is Jackie Bradley Jr. on this metaphor.)

Tatis is already the one nook outfielder within the prime 10 in OAA. The solely nook outfielders forward of him in dash velocity are Perkins and the Arizona duo of Jake McCarthy and Corbin Carroll, each of whom are within the backside 5 in max arm power. Tatis is fifteenth in outfield leap, behind 10 middle fielders, Perkins, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Seiya Suzuki, and Jake Fraley. There is little question in my thoughts that if Grisham ever leaves the Padres, Tatis could be an outstanding defensive middle fielder.

When the Padres tried to nook the market on shortstops, my huge query relating to Tatis was whether or not his defensive capability could be wasted in an outfield nook; it’s attainable to generate actual defensive worth there, however exceedingly troublesome. It appears he is likely one of the few gamers with that capability.

The solely query now’s whether or not his bat returns to pre-suspension kind. (The finest praise I may give Tatis is that he’s such all-around participant that I’m going to rag on him a bit for his offensive manufacturing when he has a 115 wRC+ and an outdoor shot at going 30–30.) From 2019 to ’21, he was top-of-the-line hitters in baseball at any place. This yr, he’s been merely above-average. He’s nonetheless giving the Padres higher offensive manufacturing than your backyard selection proper fielder, however within the first three seasons of his profession, he was the very best offensive shortstop in baseball by a huge margin. That isn’t the case this season.

There are loads of causes to hope for an offensive rebound to that 150 wRC+ degree. Tatis is coming off a season that featured a bike crash, a number of surgical procedures, and no significant video games performed. His xwOBA is 45 factors decrease than his wOBA, which is the fifth-biggest detrimental discrepancy amongst 269 hitters with at the least 2.1 plate appearances per staff recreation. So plenty of this might be rust and/or unhealthy batted ball luck. It’s additionally price making an allowance for that Tatis continues to be solely 24, or in different phrases, six weeks older than Heston Kjerstad.

Even after every part he’s been by, self-inflicted and in any other case, Tatis is likely one of the few gamers with the potential to be among the many finest within the recreation on each side of the ball. And when that potential comes by, simply ask Betts or Mike Trout; an MVP award often follows.