Giancarlo Stanton Tries to Change Issues Up After a Dreadful 2023

Following a career-worst season and a few stinging public criticism from Yankees normal supervisor Brian Cashman, Giancarlo Stanton is making some modifications. Earlier this week, the oft-injured 34-year-old slugger reported to spring coaching wanting considerably leaner than up to now, and on Wednesday offered the general public with the primary glimpse of his reworked swing. Sure, this all matches into the realm of spring coaching clichés, and batting observe cuts received’t inform us whether or not the modifications can reverse his decline or enhance his probabilities of staying wholesome, however a rebound would definitely be welcome because the Yankees try to get better from their worst file in 31 years.

Amid a season wherein so many key Yankees wound up sidelined by accidents for important spells, Stanton performed in simply 101 video games, his lowest full-season complete since 2019, when he was restricted to 19 video games by left biceps and proper knee accidents. This time round, he missed 46 days because of a left hamstring pressure, the newest in a litany of decrease physique accidents he’s incurred for the reason that begin of 2019:

That’s 301 days on the injured checklist, not together with his lacking three video games within the 2019 ALCS towards the Astros. Meanwhile, Stanton has performed 391 common season video games, which prorates to a median of 89 over a 162-game season.

It was with that irritating collection of absences in thoughts that Cashman vented throughout a media session on the GM conferences in Arizona final November, “I’m not going to tell you he’s gonna play every game next year because he’s not. He’s gonna wind up getting hurt again, more likely than not, because it seems to be part of his game.” To be honest, Cashman instantly added, “But I know that when he’s right and healthy – other than this past year – the guy’s a great hitter and has been for a long time.”

Stanton kept away from public remark on the time, letting agent Joel Wolfe commerce volleys with the GM, who went into injury management mode. “I value Giancarlo Stanton as a player,” he instructed reporters. “Without a doubt, he’s one of the big drivers when we do win. He’s one of the few players you bring to New York that hasn’t backed down, that has handled himself in a professional manner through thick and thin.” The GM moreover spoke with each participant and agent to clear the air, and since then, each Cashman and Stanton have stored the substance of their dialogue non-public. “He knows my reaction to that,” stated the latter on the Yankees’ spring coaching advanced on Monday.

Until 2023, Stanton’s absences have been mitigated at the very least considerably by his productiveness. He hit .248/.338/.493 for a 130 wRC+ from 2019–22, together with .273/.354/.516 (138 wRC+) in his 139-game ’21 marketing campaign, his healthiest certainly one of that stretch. He made the AL All-Star staff in 2022, however his ugly closing line (.211/.297/.462, 116 wRC+) hid a drastic break up: He hit .285/.339/.523 (142 wRC+) by May 24, his final day earlier than touchdown on the IL because of proper ankle irritation, however simply .166/.272/.425 thereafter, and to get to a fair 100 wRC+ for that stretch required hitting residence runs in his closing three video games. That sorry batting line appears to be like quite a bit like final 12 months’s one (.191/.275/.420), although with rising scoring ranges, the latter was good for simply an 89 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR. Since that ankle-related IL stint, he owns a 93 wRC+ and -0.6 WAR in 699 PA. It ain’t nice.

As ever, Stanton struck out quite a bit, however that wasn’t his main downside. In phrases of total strikeout fee, his 29.9% was down 0.4 factors from 2022, and useless even with ’18. His 34.1% whiff fee was proper at his Statcast-era common, down 2.4 factors from 2022, and down 0.3 factors from ’18. His 13.7% swinging strike fee and his 29.4% chase fee have been each equally under 2018, ’22, and his profession marks.

Likewise, Stanton continued to place a cost within the ball when he linked, if not fairly as exhausting as in recent times (I’ve omitted 2019 and ’20 because of their small samples):

Not all contact is created equal, in fact. Stanton pulled the ball 41.1% of the time in 2023, up from 36.5% in ’22 and his highest full-season fee since ’17, when he was nonetheless a Marlin. In normal, pulled fly balls are typically the best, whereas reverse subject groundballs are typically extra productive than pulled ones even after the banning of infield shifts. What we see with Stanton is that his outcomes on pulled groundballs — which was fairly good, as a result of he hit them so exhausting — have deteriorated drastically, as have his outcomes on pulled fly balls:

Because xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA don’t account for spray angle, I’ve as an alternative used the annual league-wide averages for right-handed hitters the place I’d often put these figures. You can see that Stanton was approach under these averages final 12 months regardless of exit velos about 5 mph above the league-wide averages. His launch angles have been notably excessive, provided that righties averaged -12.0 levels on pulled grounders and 34.7 levels on pulled fly balls. His 37.2-degree common on the latter was so excessive as to be unproductive; he was over 500 factors wanting the league common slugging share on fly balls. I couldn’t match it into the desk, however the estimated common distance on his pulled fly balls in 2023 was 344 toes, a full 20 toes shorter than his common from the 12 months earlier than; he averaged 356 toes in 2018 and 348 in ’21.

Some of the lacking manufacturing in all probability owes to Stanton’s pace, or lack of it. His dash pace fell from the 69th percentile in 2018 to the thirteenth percentile by ’21, and was all the way down to the fourth percentile final 12 months. It’s probably that a few of that is intentional — his not operating exhausting at occasions is a solution to stop accidents or to keep away from turning minor aches into main issues — however it’s little doubt costing him hits right here and there, contributing to his shortfalls in batting common relative to xBA. In reality, a fast have a look at his participant web page exhibits that his fee of infield hits per groundball (IFH% on his participant web page) has fallen from 12.8% in 2018 to 4.4% in ’21, 4.1% in ’22 and a couple of.8% final 12 months.

Meanwhile, Stanton bought below much more balls than standard, no matter path, resulting in the next share of innocent popups and flies. His 26.6% Under fee was his highest of the Statcast period, effectively above his 19.7% in 2022; he hadn’t been above 22% since ’16. He went 6-for-66 on these balls in 2023, which was really higher than his 2-for-52 in ’22 or his 4-for-70 in ’21; the issue was that these balls occupied a bigger share of his contact.

Though he nonetheless slugged .533 towards four-seamers and .516 towards sinkers, Stanton was a lot much less productive towards fastballs of each sorts than up to now. He struggled with sliders, as he often does, and was totally helpless towards curveballs, which was comparatively new. In 2018, he hit .233 and slugged .517 towards curves, and even in ’22, he was at .222 AVG/.389 SLG; final 12 months, he plummeted to .115 AVG/.269 SLG. His warmth maps present that he has critical holes in his swing. Here’s a comparability between his warmth maps for barreled balls towards fastballs (the highest pair) and breaking balls (the underside pair); 2018 is on the left and ’23 on the proper. Note how a lot smaller the protection of the latter is — he didn’t barrel a single ball towards pitches exterior these areas — and the way there may be a lot much less purple.

Here’s a have a look at the development of Stanton’s total xwOBAs by Gameday zone:

Check out the sequence within the decrease proper nook of the strike zone. Within this timespan, Stanton’s xwOBAs in that cell have dropped from .287 to .252 to .207 to .129 (see right here to zoom in on the numbers). Meanwhile, the entire purple has disappeared from the higher and outer thirds of the zone. As Alex Chamberlain wrote final week, that higher third is especially essential in terms of producing pulled fly balls, so it doesn’t assist that Stanton’s whiff fee in that a part of the zone has climbed from 23.1% in 2018 to a decimal or two on both aspect of 30% within the final two seasons — greater than double the league-wide fee.

Particularly in mild of the info, I’m hardly the primary to marvel if Stanton’s collection of decrease physique accidents has compromised his flexibility, contributing to these open holes in his swing. Indeed, in September at Pinstripe Alley, Malachi Hayes constructed on FanGraphs contributor Esteban Rivera’s visible breakdown of some mechanical points Stanton was having, declaring the slugger’s elevated problem with low breaking balls and the best way pitchers have been going even decrease towards him:

Sliders and changeups, making up a couple of third of the pitches he sees, are crossing the plate rather less than two inches decrease and a bit bit farther away than they’ve over the previous couple of years. It feels like a small change, however the distinction exhibits up in warmth maps — particularly towards right-handed pitchers — and it appears more and more clear that he simply can’t go down and get these pitches like he used to.

Stanton, whose work ethic and conditioning have by no means been unsure inside the group, instructed reporters he spent the offseason specializing in mobility and on altering his swing. Improved mobility ought to assist him discover time in an outfield combine that may embody Alex Verdugo in left, Aaron Judge in middle, and Juan Soto in proper. Light-hitting Trent Grisham might help in middle, and whereas that would imply Judge spending time in left subject, as supervisor Aaron Boone steered final month, it’s in all probability going to imply loads of DH obligation for No. 99 as effectively, given his personal damage historical past. The scenario will solely turn into extra crowded as soon as Jasson Domínguez returns from the Tommy John surgical procedure he had in September. Unless Stanton can play the outfield — extra probably proper subject, with Soto slotting in left — he stands to lose taking part in time. He performed simply 33 video games within the outfield final 12 months, and 38 the 12 months earlier than, and the outcomes have been fairly poor (a mixed -7 DRS, -4 RAA, and -0.8 UZR in 567 innings for the 2 seasons). More mobility actually couldn’t harm.

As for the promised modifications, right here’s a glimpse of the 6-foot-4 Stanton (listed at 245 kilos however wanting lighter) showing type of skinny subsequent to the 6-foot-7, 282-pound Judge, by way of Newsday’s Erik Boland:

Judge and Stanton after taking part in catch pic.twitter.com/kxZUjVx2sE

— Erik Boland (@eboland11) February 19, 2024

Here’s a side-by-side comparability of Stanton’s stance, from final season to this 12 months, courtesy of The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner:

Side by aspect look of Giancarlo Stanton’s stance from movies I shot. Left is as we speak. Right is final 12 months.

We will see what it appears to be like like with the sport angle digital camera.

Stanton stated he was making some modifications to his swing https://t.co/i2MsLICKPA pic.twitter.com/cs3Tmmp9m8

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) February 21, 2024

And right here he takes a BP reduce:

Here’s Giancarlo Stanton pic.twitter.com/e9QOSWCgGy

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) February 20, 2024

Stanton is extra upright, along with his again leg nearer to the plate than earlier than, however at this degree of depth and the restricted variety of angles, it’s powerful to say greater than that. Given that it’s February, his modifications — and people of everyone else who reported to camp speaking about swing tweaks, new pitches, and improved coaching regimens — must be thought of a piece in progress. With the addition of Soto, there’s a bit much less strain on Stanton to be one of many lineup’s main producers, however the Yankees can’t justify taking part in him if he remans under alternative degree. We’ll see quickly sufficient whether or not he can return to being near the damaging hitter he was.