Haysed and Confused: What’s Fueling Austin’s Breakout?

On Wednesday night time, an eight-run seventh-inning outburst towards the Yankees catalyzed one other Orioles win, bringing their report to 32–17, second greatest within the majors. Among the highlights within the body: Adam Frazier introduced house three with a shot off the foul pole, and Gunnar Henderson plated two with a pinch-hit double. Understandably misplaced within the scrum was the primary hit within the rally, a 109.6 mph scorcher off the bat of Austin Hays that snuck by way of the infield.

With two hits in 4 at-bats Wednesday, Hays introduced his season slash as much as .308/.351/.484 and his wRC+ to 131. The pleasure that has come together with the Baby Birds — particularly Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez — has overshadowed what appears to be like to be a breakout season for the left fielder regardless of his personal former prospect standing. It’s simple to overlook that again in 2017, Hays homered 32 instances as a 21-year-old between High-A and Double-A, incomes a call-up with no single Triple-A look. He was the first 2016 draftee to make the majors.

But he struggled in his cup of espresso after which once more within the minors the following season, working round an ankle damage that in the end required surgical procedure. He made it again to the majors in 2019 and have become a daily in 2020, although he missed extra time with a sprained thumb within the latter yr and performed by way of a hernia in 2021. Throughout this era, he developed a popularity as a bruiser, however his manufacturing settled in round league common.

Coming into this yr in good bodily form and getting into his prime at 27 years previous, Hays appeared poised for a breakout. At instances a free-swinger, he’s reached peak selectivity this yr, one other indicator of his maturity. But he’s additionally made some tweaks to his swing, leaving me to marvel: what’s actually answerable for his higher numbers this season? In a spring coaching interview with former Baltimore Sun beat reporter Jon Meoli, the right-handed slugger described the modifications as half of a bigger try and faucet again into his pure all-fields energy. What higher time to take action than after the Orioles moved the fences again in left subject?

But has Hays ever actually harnessed his supposed all-fields means in his skilled profession? Prior to this yr, his Oppo% on flyballs within the majors was simply 34.1%, significantly beneath the most important league common of 39% from 2017 to ’22 (the identical timespan). For his stints within the minors, we don’t have the power to separate flies by spray course, however we can have a look at Hays’ Oppo% throughout all batted ball varieties. During that glorious 2017 marketing campaign within the minors, when he was maybe final at full energy, his Oppo% barely topped 25% and 23% in High-A and Double-A, respectively. The major-league common Oppo% from 2017 to ’22 was 25%, a mark he solely exceeded within the minors by a noteworthy margin throughout poor 2018 and ’19 campaigns at Double-A and Triple-A, respectively. Additionally, previous to this yr, his Oppo% within the majors was simply 23.4%, although he’s posted decrease pull charges than he did within the minors.

Regardless, in 2023, Hays’ general Oppo% has risen to twenty-eight.9%, and also you guessed it: most of that is because of his outcomes on fly balls. Granted, he’s solely hit 40 of them this season, however 21 of them have gone to proper subject. In his main league profession prior, solely 34.1% of his flies went in that course. So he’s achieved his aim, however has it been value it?

I wasn’t certain why Hays determined to go on this course. In addition to by no means breaching this territory of maximum spray hitter earlier than in his skilled profession, proof from his time within the minors prompt that it may not be the most effective thought. But extra importantly, think about the next from his time within the majors:

This yr, his wOBA on oppo flies has improved considerably, and whereas it handily outpaces this season’s league common wOBA of .184 (.192 for righties) on these balls, it nonetheless doesn’t appear value sacrificing pulled or middle ones. On 19 pulled and middle flies this yr, he’s managed 10 hits, together with 4 homers, 4 doubles, and a triple. Historically, his oppo flies have underperformed relative to his pulled and middle ones, and this yr has been no completely different.

Well, besides that his efficiency on middle flies has been otherworldly. There’s actually an argument to be made that the revamped swing is behind these numbers, however the pattern is absolutely small. Plus, even when the swing is the trigger, it seems to permit just for a restricted variety of these huge middle flies; the oppo fly balls actually appear to be coming on the expense of different fly balls greater than the rest.

Surprisingly, Hays’ groundball and line drive distributions haven’t actually modified. Before this yr, 17.1% of these batted balls went oppo; this yr, 16.2% of them have. That’s in all probability factor, as a result of Hays was shifted extra usually — with three infielders to the left of second base, as decided by Baseball Savant — than the common righty final season, albeit solely 18.1% of the time. Either manner, sustaining his groundball and line drive distributions will no less than permit him to win a number of bonus factors of batting common utilizing that additional actual property to the left facet. On 74 grounders and line drives this yr, his .446 BABIP is a major enchancment over his earlier .389 mark.

In case you’re questioning, that .446 quantity comes from a 72/28 grounder/liner break up, and the .389 comes from a 70/30 break up, in order that isn’t what’s driving the change. But shift ban isn’t the only real trigger both, as a result of his Hard% on these batted balls this yr has been at 41.9% in comparison with a mere 26.9% earlier than. And whereas Hard% is considerably subjective, Statcast agrees, placing his general hard-hit charge (p.c of balls with an exit velocity of no less than 95 mph) at a career-high 43.9%. His 13.2% barrel charge, additionally a career-high, is greater than double his major-league common beforehand.

But once more, none of that is coming from his oppo flies. Just 4 of his 21 have been hit onerous in response to Hard%; at a 19% charge, that’s barely beneath his profession prior (19.8%). On the opposite hand, he’s crushing his fly balls to left and middle.

If I needed to guess what’s answerable for Hays’ enchancment in 2023, his career-bests in touch high quality, I’d put my cash on his clear invoice of well being. His general wOBA on fly balls has improved, and it’s potential the revamped swing is behind his success on balls hit to middle. But whether it is, it could be inadvertently, as a result of in his interview he particularly emphasised desirous to drive the ball to the open swath of grass in proper middle. Here, his spray chart is especially telling:

That acreage is nearly totally devoid of hits, making it onerous to imagine the swing is doing what it’s meant to. So it’s potential there’s one other gear ready for Hays if he can shift a few of his flies again to middle and left. That can be a dangerous experiment, although, simply in case the brand new swing actually is driving a few of these enhancements. It’s anybody’s guess if the Orioles, who have been content material to take a seat out many of the offseason however are off to such a powerful begin, can be prepared to tackle such a danger.

Statistics are as of end-of-day Tuesday, May 23 except in any other case specified.