How Have the New Guidelines Modified the Game?

This is an enormous 12 months for the MLB rulebook. After many years of tiny incremental adjustments, the league made three big ones in 2023. They instituted a pitch timer, modified the dimensions of the bases, and restricted defensive positioning for the primary time in trendy historical past. But how have these new guidelines modified how the sport seems to be on the sphere? I broke down every one to seek out out.

Games Are Shorter

The greatest change to the sport this 12 months was the introduction of a pitch timer, and it’s had a big impact on sport size. Per Baseball Reference, the typical nine-inning sport has lasted two hours and 37 minutes this 12 months, down from three hours and three minutes final 12 months. You have to return to 1985 to discover a shorter common sport size.

Despite that drastic change, the quantity of motion in a sport hasn’t modified a lot. Plate appearances per sport are roughly unchanged: there are 75.6 this 12 months, fairly near the 76.4 common within the twenty first century. Pitcher per plate look are steady: 3.9 this 12 months, 3.9 for the final 10 years on common.

The distinction is all tempo. Per Statcast, pitchers are taking three fewer seconds to throw with the bases empty and 4.5 fewer seconds to throw with a runner on base. The bases-empty change is welcome however solely will get us again to the numbers that prevailed 15 years in the past or so. The change with runners on base is much extra vital; we’ve seemingly by no means seen a sooner tempo when pitchers are holding runners, although the info solely goes again to 2010.

This sooner tempo issues for extra than simply time of sport. It additionally issues for opposing baserunners, who now face fewer throws, fewer lengthy freezes, and fewer intentional adjustments of tempo. There’s solely a lot you are able to do to disrupt a baserunner’s timing lately. Speaking of which…

Stolen Bases Are Up

You already knew this one. The bigger bases and new restrict on pickoff throws have mixed to unleash a torrent of stolen bases not seen because the Nineteen Nineties:

That graph tells numerous the story, however the particulars are attention-grabbing as nicely. It’s not only a story of rampant operating within the sport; extra importantly, runners are getting caught far much less usually. This 12 months’s 79.6% stolen base success fee can be the best mark on report, and the one occasions that baseball beforehand approached this clip have been within the slowdown period of the Nineteen Forties, when groups stole at roughly half at the moment’s fee:

If you place two and two collectively, that implies that the rise in stolen bases has handily outstripped the rise in stolen base makes an attempt. Teams aren’t operating at an unprecedented fee; they’re merely succeeding like by no means earlier than. There are 1.78 stolen base makes an attempt per sport this 12 months, a mark that has been eclipsed as lately as 2012. Every 12 months from 1981 by 1997 featured greater than two stolen base makes an attempt per sport.

As you’d count on, these steals are coming due to higher leads, not worse throwing by catchers. Statcast calculates pop time for each stolen base try, so we are able to examine previous years to the present one. It’s barely budged. In 2022, the mixture league pop time on throws to second base was 1.98 seconds; this 12 months, it’s 1.97 seconds. Catchers are getting the ball to second simply as shortly, however that point merely isn’t sufficient anymore, due to the elevated leads that runners can take.

What does that imply for run scoring? To a tough approximation, nearly nothing. I tallied up what number of runs have been created by profitable stolen base makes an attempt, in addition to what number of have been misplaced by unsuccessful makes an attempt, by evaluating the bottom/out conditions earlier than and after every try. This 12 months, groups are including roughly 0.07 runs to their per-game run totals due to steals. That isn’t a lot, and it’s a fair smaller change from final 12 months, when groups added roughly 0.035 runs per sport due to the operating sport.

How a lot of a change is that? Run scoring is up by roughly 0.3 runs per sport this 12 months; groups scored 4.283 runs per sport final 12 months and 4.581 per sport this 12 months. Steals have accounted for 10% of that. The further steals would possibly make the sport look completely different than it did prior to now, however they haven’t achieved a lot to vary the best way it’s performed at a basic stage.

Pitch Violations Haven’t Mattered Much

While the pitch timer has had an enormous impact on stealing, it hasn’t had a lot impact on balls and strikes. Pitchers and batters have each tailored to the brand new regime shortly, as you’ll be able to see from our helpful pitch violation leaderboards. Joe Musgrove leads baseball in pitch timer violations with six. That’s six pitches that routinely depend as balls. Turned into run worth, that works out to 0.2 runs he’s price himself by holding the ball too lengthy. That works out to roughly 0.06 factors of ERA — and keep in mind, that’s the pitcher who has been the worst at it.

If that impact sounds miniscule, it’s. The Yankees have racked up 20 timer violations on their pitchers, essentially the most in baseball. That’s 1.5 runs price of free balls for his or her opponents. They’ve even gotten a few of these runs again: opposing hitters have been referred to as for 5 violations of their very own, resulting in free strikes. That’s simply not a lot impact, even for essentially the most frequent violators.

On the opposite facet of the ledger, the Mariners have obtained 24 free balls whereas batting and been referred to as for under 4 computerized strikes on their hitters. We calculate that distinction as price 1.3 runs of extra offense. They’ve scored 246 runs this 12 months. The timer hasn’t achieved a lot to vary groups’ fortunes; it’s merely saved the sport shifting.

BABIP Is Up, But Not Much

The shift is lifeless; lengthy dwell the shift. One of 2023’s noisiest rule adjustments was a ban on infield shifting. Teams now have to put two infielders on both facet of second base and with each ft beginning on the infield filth. The rule change was a counter to years of accelerating overshifts; in 2022, lefties hit extra batted balls right into a shift than right into a “normal” defensive alignment.

This 12 months, lefties have hit precisely zero batted balls into an overshift. That’s been a tailwind in the case of batting common on grounders. Last 12 months, lefties hit .226 after they hit a ball on the bottom. This 12 months, that quantity is as much as .236. They’re hitting their grounders barely tougher, however the principle change is in defensive alignment. That stated, the change additionally isn’t notably impactful. As lately as 2017, lefties have been batting .241 on grounders in a world of authorized shifts. In 2021, lefties batted .232 on grounders. This isn’t a lot of a change.

Shifts assistance on extra than simply grounders, to be honest. Lefties have posted a .643 BABIP on line drives this 12 months, up from a mean of .619 from 2015 by ’22. That’s an additional handful of hits — 250 or so for the complete season if line drive charges keep the identical as final 12 months. Every little bit helps, however we’re actually speaking about little bits right here. There’s not a lot likelihood of an enormous, weather-based enchancment, both. BABIP on grounders hit by lefties has ticked up barely in summer time months of current years, however solely by a couple of factors:

Meanwhile, righties have barely been affected. As Tom Tango regularly notes, shifting towards right-handed batters by no means made a lot sense. Now that groups can’t do it, not a lot has modified. Righties are batting .251 on grounders this 12 months, as in comparison with .252 in that 2015–22 span. In different phrases, eliminating the shift didn’t change something in the case of their balls in play.

The odds of issues betting higher for the offense don’t appear excessive. Teams are getting extra knowledge on how their new modified shifts work with each batted ball. Worst of all, the hits that the shift ban was speculated to resuscitate haven’t been taking place. Grounders up the center have been hits since time immemorial earlier than the shift acquired to them. From 2008 by ’14, which I roughly consider because the period earlier than shifts went wild (my knowledge begins in 2008), lefties hit .284 on grounders up the center. From 2015 by ’22, they hit .239 on these balls; there was instantly a defender standing there. This 12 months, they’re hitting .243, as a result of the shift restrictions simply imply opposing shortstops stand behind second base.

If the league hoped to revive manufacturing on grounders, this set of shift restrictions seems to be like a failure. A wedge of area behind second base the place nobody can stand would possibly do the trick, however merely requiring two infielders on all sides doesn’t change the truth that groups now know that they’ll align their defenders based mostly on hitter tendencies. You can’t put the toothpaste again within the tube; these singles up the center all the time made sense to defend, and groups are actually doing so even with out the advantage of a full shift.

For essentially the most half, I feel MLB’s rule adjustments have been a hit. The predominant observable change is tempo; video games are lasting much less time regardless of an identical quantity of motion. That’s an enormous change, and as measured by pitch violations, it hasn’t excessively affected any explicit staff or participant. Instead, the sport is simply shifting sooner, which was the acknowledged objective of the adjustments.

Changing the principles to extend stolen bases appears to have labored roughly as anticipated: Teams are operating extra regularly and with extra success. Those steals aren’t making the sport unrecognizable, although; we’re speaking about an additional half a steal per sport, give or take. I feel there was cause to fret whether or not steals would turn out to be undefendable, however the proof means that hasn’t occurred. Catchers who management the operating sport are extra priceless than lately, however that’s additionally hardly an unwelcome change. For essentially the most half, I feel that the additional steals depart the sport wanting like a barely sooner model of itself, identical to the pitch timer adjustments.

On the draw back, the brand new restrictions on infield shifts haven’t achieved a lot of something. Lefties are reaching base extra regularly after they put the ball on the bottom, however not at pre-shift charges. Defensive positioning continues to be taking hits away, notably in the midst of the sphere. Righty batters nonetheless have a slight BABIP benefit on lefties due to infield positioning. If the league desires to repair that disparity, there must be stricter shift restrictions, in all probability centered round retaining the world behind second base empty.

If you have been hoping for largely the identical baseball, congratulations: you’ve acquired it. If you have been hoping for groups to start out prioritizing speedy lefty singles hitters, or for batters to start out making an attempt to maintain the ball on the bottom to benefit from the brand new defensive restrictions, that hasn’t panned out. Teams are scoring extra this 12 months, however that’s largely unrelated to guidelines adjustments. I feel that’s nice; from my perspective, the league has threaded the needle by affecting how video games look with out placing their thumb on the dimensions of offensive and defensive stability.