How On Earth Is Geraldo Perdomo Pulling This Off?

It looks like all of our protection of the 2023 Diamondbacks right here at FanGraphs has centered on the pitching, and it’s not laborious to see why. Zac Gallen has appeared phenomenal (at instances traditionally so), Madison Bumgarner was abominable (finally too abominable to roster), and the D-backs have given some intriguing younger arms the possibility to show their value within the massive league rotation.

Yet all that being so, the actual story of the 2023 Diamondbacks has been the offense. They lead the National League in hitting and rank third with 257 runs scored. They’re fourth in OBP, fourth in slugging proportion, and fifth in wRC+. By and huge, the pitching employees has carried out as anticipated – Gallen good, MadBum dangerous, everybody else someplace in between – however the offense has been stronger than anybody might have envisioned.

It’s been a staff effort in Arizona; among the many 9 Diamondbacks hitters with no less than 100 PA, seven have been above-average on the plate. Corbin Carroll is off to the races. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has taken a large step ahead. Ketel Marte and Christian Walker have been predictably stable, whereas Gabriel Moreno and Pavin Smith are holding their very own. Leading the way in which, nonetheless, has been none aside from Geraldo Perdomo, who’s pacing the membership in OBP, wRC+, and WAR. What?

Perdomo is slashing .315/.413/.519. I’m a sucker for a .300/.400/.500 batting line; like a superb strain washing video, there’s simply one thing so satisfying about these three numbers in a row. Moreover, slashing .300/.400/.500 is a tough activity, and even at this early level within the season, solely a choose few hitters are within the membership (minimal 100 plate appearances): Ronald Acuña Jr., Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, Will Smith, and Perdomo. That’s a superb group to be part of, and it displays notably effectively on Perdomo that he’s a member. Indeed, in 38 video games, his 153 wRC+ ranks seventh within the National League (once more, min. 100 PA), and his 2.0 WAR ranks eighth. By wRAA and BsR, he has been the very best shortstop within the NL, and he’s inside putting distance of Bo Bichette’s crown as the most efficient offensive shortstop within the recreation. That’s all of the extra spectacular contemplating he ranks simply twenty seventh at his place in plate appearances.

If you’re not particularly acquainted with Perdomo, you may presume from all this info that he’s a younger hotshot and a just lately graduated high prospect – and also you’d be appropriate! He ranked 83rd total on our 2022 Top 100 listing and made his massive league debut at simply 21 years outdated. However, when you’re a little bit extra acquainted with the D-backs shortstop, you’ll know he was all the time a defense-first prospect, and energy was by no means part of his recreation. Last yr, in his first full season, he slashed .195/.285/.262 with a 58 wRC+ in 500 PA. He hit so poorly, in reality, that he had almost as many sacrifice hits as extra-base hits; if solely sacrifice hits had been truly hits, he might need completed with a batting common above .200.

Long story quick, it’s past shocking to see Perdomo taking part in this effectively, and the surprises simply preserve coming if you take a look at his Statcast web page. The first two rows of sliders are a sea of blue, from his fifth-percentile common exit velocity to his first-percentile hard-hit fee. There is a large gulf between his .402 wOBA and .285 xwOBA, simply the biggest such hole within the league. If Perdomo retains this up (extremely unlikely, however extra on that later), he’ll set a Statcast-era file for wOBA-xwOBA in a season:

Without a doubt, Perdomo is due for some severe regression. For one factor, a driving drive behind his success this yr has been a .370 BABIP. As a soft-contact service provider with a mean dash velocity and groundball fee, he received’t be capable of preserve that perpetually (RIP .300/.400/.500 slashline). As a matter of truth, his BABIP has been steadily declining for the reason that first week of the season. Truth be instructed, it appears to have overcorrected — his BABIP in May has change into unsustainably low:

Hitters expertise peaks and valleys yearly, and fluctuations in BABIP are not often newsworthy. Instead, what pursuits me most about Perdomo is his energy. Even over his final 15 video games, by which his BABIP sits at .212, he had managed to keep up a wonderfully respectable .326 wOBA. That’s due partially to his excessive stroll fee and low strikeout numbers, but additionally his 4 extra-base hits. While his BABIP has been on the decline, his remoted energy has stayed comparatively constant all season:

Power is tougher to faux than batting common, particularly for a participant whose common exit velocity may very well be confused with a residential velocity restrict. Yet Perdomo already has 13 extra-base hits in 130 PA this yr (Patrick Dubuque broke all of them down as a part of his take a look at Perdomo for Baseball Prospectus yesterday). He’s on tempo to triple his extra-base hits from final yr, however his high quality of contact numbers have barely modified. So how on earth is he pulling it off? Well, by pulling it off.

In 2022, Perdomo had a league-average pull fee of 40.9%. This yr, that quantity is as much as 47.2%. That’s a significant enchancment, particularly for a participant who makes as a lot contact as Perdomo. His pull fee is 15% increased than league common (115 Pull%+), whereas his reverse subject fee is 27% decrease (73 Oppo%+). Even higher, all of that additional pull contact is approaching balls within the air, which is the place it’s truly going to result in extra hits and extra-base knocks. His pull fee on groundballs is basically unchanged, however his pull fee on balls within the air is up from 30.8% to 43.8%. Better nonetheless, his reverse subject fee on fly balls and line drives is down from 34.9% to 25%. That means he’s already hit six extra pulled balls within the air and 5 fewer reverse subject pictures than he would have final yr. That’s not an insignificant distinction.

Pulled balls within the air are way more harmful, even when adjusting for exit velocity and launch angle. Consider, for example, that pulled barrels have an ISO of two.240 this season, whereas reverse subject barrels have an ISO of 1.419. Similarly, pulled balls categorised as stable contact have a .754 ISO, whereas reverse subject stable contact has a .358 ISO. In different phrases, all else being equal, it’s higher to tug balls within the air. Therefore, pulling the ball is an effective way to maximise one’s power. You don’t must hit fairly as laborious if you may make constant pull contact.

What’s extra, Perdomo has additionally been optimizing his launch angle. His sweet-spot proportion (launch angle between eight and 32 levels) is up from 28.1% to 34.8%. If you take away his six bunt makes an attempt from the calculation, it’s even increased; 37.3% of his batted balls have been hit within the candy spot. That places him within the seventy fifth percentile, which means he makes contact at an optimum launch angle extra typically than three-quarters of the league. This makes an actual distinction, as a result of the softer a batter hits the ball, the extra essential launch angle turns into. Think about it this manner: A ball hit over 116 mph may be categorised as a barrel with a launch angle wherever from eight to 50 levels. Conversely, a ball hit beneath 100 mph can solely be categorised as a barrel if it has launch angle between 25 and 31 levels. Thus, by optimizing his launch angle, Perdomo has discovered one other approach to profit from the minimal energy he possesses.

That all sounds nice, however now, in fact, we have to ask the million-dollar query: Can Perdomo proceed to optimize his launch and spray angles to compensate for his restricted energy? The boring reply is that it’s too quickly to say. Stats like pull tendency and common launch angle don’t stabilize almost as shortly as common exit velocity, and Perdomo’s 130 PA is a fairly small pattern to work with. Thankfully, nonetheless, I even have a extra enjoyable response. What if Perdomo is utilizing his wonderful bat-to-ball expertise and sharp eye on the plate to assist to optimize his high quality of contact? Directional hitting, in any case, is essentially about timing.

Perdomo has all the time been a disciplined hitter, however he’s been extra disciplined than ever this season, and that’s a superb indication that he’s seeing pitches effectively and feeling extra in management on the plate. He’s putting out simply 17.7% of the time and strolling at a 12.3% clip. His chase fee is within the 96th percentile, and his in-zone contact fee additionally ranks among the many finest within the league. What’s extra, Perdomo has been particularly selective on the primary pitch this yr, swinging solely 16.4% of the time. He solely takes a rip if he likes what he sees, and that method has labored effectively. His 54.6% first-pitch strike fee is considerably higher than his 61.4% mark final yr. Consequently, he has been more likely to begin his at-bats forward within the depend. That, in flip, permits him to keep up his selective method all through the at-bat.

As additional proof that Perdomo’s eye helps him thrive, he has improved tremendously towards breaking pitches this season. In 2022, breaking pitches had been his greatest weak spot. Be it the curveball, slider, or sweeper, Perdomo fell into the identical traps repeatedly. He posted a .151 wOBA, .195 xwOBA, and 20.2% put-away proportion towards breaking balls. This yr, these numbers are a lot improved: a .496 wOBA, .323 xwOBA, and 10.5% put-away fee. He is chasing much less and swinging at extra breaking balls within the zone. When he makes contact, he hits ’em tougher, and he’s extra prone to pull breaking pitches and hit them within the air:

There’s an outdated saying across the recreation – one re-popularized by Aaron Judge on his quest for 62 – that the majority dwelling runs are thrown, not hit. By that logic, it stands to cause {that a} batter might maximize his energy through the use of a pointy eye to establish the pitches he can hit and by understanding easy methods to hit them. So far in 2023, that seems to be the key to Geraldo Perdomo’s success. Indeed, none of his 4 dwelling runs this yr had been crushed, however they had been all well-deserved. They got here on pitches that missed their spots and which Perdomo proceeded to tug into the seats.

Will Perdomo proceed to hit this effectively all yr lengthy? Almost actually not. There are some stuff you simply can’t do with out a little bit of brute power, and sustaining a .400 wOBA is certainly one in every of them. But can he proceed outperforming his anticipated stats, even by just a bit, and preserve contributing to the Diamondbacks’ surging offense, even simply right here and there? I’m optimistic he can pull it off.

All stats and rankings by May 25.