Wednesday, October 23

In Celebration (Type of) of Matt Harvey

Matt Harvey
Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

On July 16, 2013, Tom Seaver threw out the primary pitch on the All-Star Game at Citi Field in New York. It was an unforgettable second in isolation, however the context thickened the environment to mugginess with implication.

Warming up within the bullpen was Matt Harvey, a 24-year-old from Connecticut who’d been chosen to start out the sport for the National League. Ten days shy of a yr within the majors, Harvey had turn out to be one of the vital efficient, and most-discussed, pitchers within the sport. From the day of his debut till the day of his All-Star begin, he was fifth amongst certified starters in WAR, third in Ok%, and sixth in ERA-.

But he wasn’t simply efficient; he was electrical. He overpowered hitters together with his upper-90s velocity and merciless breaking pitches. And he was doing it in a Mets ecosystem that, after a number of years of being squished by division rivals, cried out desperately for… truly, it simply cried out desperately generally. Harvey wasn’t simply branded a future Cy Young winner, however the subsequent nice New York baseball star. Seaver was genuinely handing the ball to his inheritor presumptive.

That 2013 All-Star look can be Harvey’s sole journey to the Midsummer basic. He by no means obtained a single Cy Young vote after that season. Tommy John surgical procedure value him all of 2014, and after a return to dominance in 2015 — punctuated by a fateful run to the World Series — he was by no means the identical once more.

That yr, he returned from UCL reconstruction to throw 216 innings between the common season and playoffs, a document for a participant in his first yr after Tommy John surgical procedure. By that time, he had been surpassed in status by two teammates: Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. But the rotation shook out in such a means that it was Harvey who began Game 1 of the World Series. And it was Harvey on the mound within the ninth inning of Game 5, with 102 pitches in his arm and a shutout on the scoreboard.

At Harvey’s urging, Terry Collins left him in to complete the job, to say the glory of the series-saving shutout the way in which Seaver or Dwight Gooden may need accomplished. He didn’t retire a batter. (Such a memorable inning on the time, by some means forgotten solely by individuals who griped about Blake Snell getting pulled 5 years later, however that’s a unique argument.) The Royals tied the sport within the ninth, Salvador Perez bringing house Eric Hosmer, who’d doubled off Harvey earlier within the inning. Then they gained the sport and the collection within the twelfth.

Harvey toiled on for six extra years within the majors, taking part in for 5 groups in his final 4 huge league seasons. And after an encore with the Italian nationwide staff in the latest World Baseball Classic, he introduced his retirement on Friday at age 34, having thrown simply 966.1 innings within the main leagues.

Had Harvey continued as regular after 2015, a spot within the Hall of Fame was certainly not assured, however it was potential. Projecting his profession ahead from 2016, ZiPS has him ending his profession with 43.4 WAR and a couple of,019 strikeouts. That’s within the Hall of Very Good zone populated by Bret Saberhagen, David Cone, and Johan Santana, to call three different dominant Mets. Only a barely extra optimistic projection would have had the hypothetical Harvey in Cooperstown:

ZiPS Projection – Matt Harvey (Pre-2016)

Year W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2016 10 6 2.91 26 26 170.3 143 55 12 41 161 123 3.7
2017 9 6 2.95 25 25 161.7 137 53 12 38 152 121 3.5
2018 9 5 2.96 25 25 161.3 136 53 12 38 151 121 3.5
2019 8 5 2.93 23 23 147.3 124 48 11 35 138 122 3.2
2020 8 5 2.92 21 21 138.7 116 45 10 33 131 122 3.0
2021 7 4 2.98 20 20 130.0 109 43 10 31 124 120 2.7
2022 7 4 3.02 19 19 122.0 103 41 10 30 117 118 2.5
2023 6 4 3.07 18 18 114.3 98 39 10 29 110 116 2.3
2024 6 4 3.24 17 17 105.7 91 38 9 27 102 110 1.9
2025 5 4 3.34 15 15 97.0 85 36 9 26 93 107 1.6
2026 5 4 3.49 14 14 87.7 78 34 8 24 83 102 1.2
2027 4 3 3.59 12 12 77.7 70 31 8 22 73 99 1.0
2028 3 3 3.86 10 10 64.0 60 27 7 18 59 93 0.6
2029 2 3 4.01 8 8 52.0 50 23 6 16 47 89 0.4
2030 1 2 4.38 5 5 33.0 33 16 4 10 29 82 0.1

The nice pitchers of baseball historical past individuals the document books and the Hall of Fame. They overlap solely sometimes with the nice pitchers of baseball folklore. This latter group captures our creativeness by means of excellence, sure, but in addition uncommon method, charisma, or strangeness. They burn brightly however briefly: Denny McLain, Mark Fidrych, Dontrelle Willis. Harvey appeared destined for greatness earlier than he was laid low by thoracic outlet syndrome, after which for everlasting notoriety afterward. Now, I ponder if he’ll be remembered in any respect in 20 years’ time, and whether or not that could be the best, and most perverse, measure of his influence.

When Harvey got here alongside, the Mets had not but morphed into baseball’s reply to Newcastle United (the richest staff within the sport, financed by ridiculously rich however morally suspect possession). Instead, they had been Newcastle United (a traditionally necessary however underachieving big-market staff with embarrassingly inept possession). As David Wright aged into the second decade of his profession, Harvey was the brand new and thrilling Met.

Only that kind of undersells what Harvey was. New York has amplified ballplayers’ profiles within the twenty first century, however to not the extent that it as soon as did Reggie Jackson, Mickey Mantle, and Joe DiMaggio. And whereas Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, and to some extent Aaron Judge now, have picked up the native halo, it’s been in a Yankees-specific means — “classy,” should you can say that with out wrinkling your nostril in irony. Famous, however in a studiously, nearly uncannily mannered means. Harvey embraced New York. As a younger participant, he was not solely wonderful but in addition brash, fearless, and unapologetic.

And like the town, he by no means slept. Even on the time, a lot of the fascination with Harvey, even amongst his supporters, concerned speculating about how lengthy he might hold going. How lengthy he might go on pitching like this: high-velocity, high-spin, high-effort. Off the sector he was equally high-effort: seeing final name at nightclubs, relationship fashions, displaying up on Page Six practically as usually as on the tabloids’ again pages.

Eventually, as accidents piled up and Harvey’s ERA crawled from the 2s to the 5s, followers — and the Mets themselves — discovered this aspect of him much less fascinating than they as soon as did. In May 2017, Harvey referred to as out sick on a day he wasn’t scheduled to pitch. But when it got here out that he was struggling not from a migraine however from the aftereffects of a visit to the parodically cool nightclub 1Oak, the Mets suspended him. Later that month, Harvey suffered a stress response in his scapula and went on the injured record.

I occurred to be on the first sport Harvey pitched afterward, the primary sport of a doubleheader in Houston on September 2, 2017. It was the primary Astros house sport after the town was devastated by a hurricane the week earlier than. Justin Verlander additionally threw a bullpen session that day, marking his first public look in an Astros uniform. Apart from one awkward query in a pregame press convention — Harvey shared a reputation with the hurricane that had simply swept by means of Texas — the Mets starter’s return went unremarked upon.

Two years earlier than, he was one of the vital well-known gamers in baseball. Now, he was an afterthought. The Astros duly laid into Harvey, piling up seven earned runs in two innings. He wouldn’t see his main league profession finish for an additional 4 years, wouldn’t quit hope of a return for greater than 5, however he was accomplished. The organizations that employed him thereafter — the Reds, Angels, A’s, Orioles, and Royals — had been in search of pitchers beneath rocks at that time. He was as a lot a final resort to them as they had been to him.

Harvey’s final important involvement with main league baseball was his testimony within the 2022 trial of Eric Kay, the previous Angels communications staffer who was later discovered responsible of distribution of a managed substance leading to dying and conspiracy to own with intent to distribute managed substances, and sentenced to 22 years in jail. The investigation started after the 2019 drug overdose dying of Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs. Harvey testified beneath oath that he’d used cocaine throughout his profession, each earlier than and through his stint with the Angels, and that he and Skaggs had offered medication to one another throughout their time as teammates. Harvey’s testimony received him immunity from prosecution and a 60-game suspension from MLB. He apprehensive that testifying would imperil his profession, and he was proper. He by no means pitched within the majors once more.

This is the define of a profession — alternately spectacular and woeful, enviable and piteous — that ought to cement Harvey as an necessary, although ambivalent, determine in baseball folklore. And he may get misplaced, as a result of he so completely prefigured every part that was to come back. He emerged into public consciousness not simply within the good place for myth-building, but in addition on the good time. In 2012, pitching pedagogy was transitioning from the volume-based enterprise it was for all of baseball historical past into what it’s right this moment: centered on velocity and spin, acknowledging that Tommy John was the price of doing enterprise. Seven innings a sport and 200 innings a yr (or six a sport and 150 a yr now) may simply not be within the playing cards for everybody. Meanwhile, prospect protection was simply starting to blossom into an trade in and of itself. Social media and democratized blogs and unbiased media had been maturing into what they’re right this moment.

In brief, when Harvey got here up, we weren’t used to pitchers trying like him, pitching like him. It was novel that we’d know as a lot about Harvey as we did. It was revolutionary.

Now, if a top-10 pitching prospect hits the majors, he’s throwing 97 mph or more durable with unhittable breaking stuff. Every prospect value understanding does anymore. And informal followers can have identified about him since his sophomore yr of school. Diehards can have identified about him since his junior yr at Our Lady of the Bastard Slider High School in Katy, Texas. Thanks to social media, we all know what films he enjoys, which gamers on the staff he’s associates with, and typically (if he’s careless together with his likes) whose Instagram he enjoys a bit an excessive amount of.

Harvey was the primary drop by means of the fireplace hose. Perhaps his reminiscence shall be washed away by the flood that got here after.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com