J.P. Crawford Is Choosier and Bruisier

Have I acquired information for you. The J.P. Crawford and love is now 50% extra highly effective! After operating an ISO of .099 over the past two seasons, the Mariners shortstop is at .150 in 2023. And that’s not all. With that energy has come elevated manufacturing: Crawford’s 133 wRC+ is not only the very best of his profession, it’s second amongst all shortstops, trailing solely Corey Seager’s 179 wRC+. Let’s act now and work out what Crawford is doing otherwise this season.

With Crawford, plate self-discipline is at all times an excellent place to begin. Crawford has at all times run low chase charges, however this season, he’s right down to 21.2%. That’s fifth-lowest amongst all certified gamers, and it’s led to a 15.6% stroll fee, fourth-highest. However, whereas Crawford is chasing much less and strolling extra, he’s additionally putting out extra. While his 19% strikeout fee remains to be higher than the common participant, it’s a bounce of greater than 5 share factors from final season.

Crawford is operating a career-best 37.3% hard-hit fee. That’s nonetheless properly under common, however it’s an enormous bounce for somebody who was within the fifth percentile in 2022. It could seem to be Crawford has made the traditional power-for-contact tradeoff, however that’s solely true to an extent. Players who make that tradeoff normally whiff extra as a result of they’re being extra aggressive on the plate. Crawford is hitting the ball more durable and putting out extra, however he’s truly been extra passive than ever. His swing fee has dropped by nearly precisely the identical quantity on pitches contained in the zone and out of doors the zone.

I’m going to point out you three warmth maps. The one within the center is Crawford’s slugging share on balls in play over the course of his profession. It exhibits the place he does injury. On the left is Crawford’s swing fee in 2022, and on the fitting is his swing fee in 2023:

This is as large a change as you’re going to see. Last yr, Crawford would swing at just about something over the center of the plate. This yr, he’s centered on a a lot smaller space, pitches within the absolute heart of the zone, a lot nearer to the place he actually does injury. Here’s what that appears like when it comes to Baseball Savant’s swing/take choices:

Crawford is chasing much less, so the enhancements within the shadow and chase zones shouldn’t shock us a lot. The coronary heart of the plate is the place issues get attention-grabbing. Let’s break these numbers into their constituent components:

In each 2022 and to this point in 2023, when Crawford took pitches over the center of the plate, he was value -11 runs. That’s is sensible, as all of these pitches find yourself as referred to as strikes. When he has swung at pitches over the center of the plate, he’s been 16 runs higher than he was final yr! His wOBA on these swings has gone from .312 to .400. Crawford is taking extra strikes, which hurts just a little, however he’s greater than making up for it when he does swing.

Still, none of this explains why he’s making much less contact. Here’s the factor I feel is absolutely fascinating. Take a take a look at Crawford’s whiff share damaged down by pitch sort:

Crawford is gearing as much as hit the fastball in a means he hasn’t been in earlier seasons. He’s lacking them a bit much less typically, and his wOBA in opposition to them has jumped from .315 to .394. Gearing as much as hit the fastball can have a facet impact: getting fooled extra typically on softer stuff. Crawford is whiffing much more in opposition to breaking balls and offspeed stuff. However, that doesn’t essentially imply he’s performing worse on softer stuff. Take a take a look at his precise outcomes, as soon as once more utilizing Baseball Savant’s run values:

Crawford is certainly doing worse in opposition to breaking stuff, however he has utterly turned himself round in opposition to each fastballs and offspeed stuff. How is he doing so properly in opposition to changeups and splitters when he’s whiffing on them over 50% extra typically than he did final yr? Furthermore, since he’s now a lot worse in opposition to breaking balls, why haven’t pitchers began throwing them far more typically?

The reply to the primary query is that Crawford is offsetting all these further whiffs by hitting the ball a lot more durable, particularly in opposition to offspeed stuff. His smooth contact fee has dropped to a profession low, and his Ninety fifth-percentile exit velocity elevated from 105 mph to 106.2. As for the second query, breaking stuff typically requires a hitter to chase as a way to be efficient, and Crawford doesn’t do this. If your plan is to get Crawford out by deluging him with smooth stuff, you’re more likely to find yourself behind within the rely.

As I pulled all these numbers collectively, I used to be reminded of one thing Robert Orr wrote again in June for Baseball Prospectus. Orr detailed how Ronald Acuña Jr., beforehand a dead-pull hitter, had begun letting fastballs journey just a little deeper and sending them the opposite means, which led to a handy knock-on impact:

“What happens when Acuña thinks a fastball is coming and he’s wrong. If he starts on time for 96 and gets 96, then he laces a base hit into the gap. That’s good. If he starts on time for 96 and gets 87, though? That’s when he can catch the ball out in front of the plate, and that’s where homers are. That’s better.”

Crawford is coming from the alternative finish of the spectrum. He ran a 34.2% pull fee final yr, in comparison with Acuña’s 44.5%. But this yr, they’ve ended up in the identical place: Crawford at 41% and Acuña at 40.5%. Here’s what the change seems to be like once you break it down by pitch sort:

Crawford is pulling the ball far more typically, particularly in opposition to non-fastballs. Those pulled balls haven’t became homers, as a result of even this model of him remains to be means much less highly effective than Acuña, however he’s gone from the underside finish of the spectrum up towards the center. Further, Crawford’s 39.2% groundball fee is the bottom it’s been since he grew to become a daily starter. Meeting these balls out in entrance helps him pull them within the air, taking advantage of his elevated energy.

Under regular circumstances, I may need ended this text right here. We’re pushing 2,000 phrases, and I’ve typed the title Crawford so many occasions that I’ve misplaced the flexibility to grasp its which means. It’s only a string of letters to me, and that A-W-F-O part within the center is absolutely beginning to freak me out. Who does that? The solely phrase I can consider that accommodates an A-W-F-O stretch is ‘clawfoot,’ and I feel we are able to all agree that that’s one of many creepiest phrases within the English language. However, there are two issues I’d nonetheless like to handle. The first is how Crawford happened this further energy. You would possibly keep in mind that he’s tried to enhance his energy output earlier than. Before the 2021 season, he packed on 20 kilos of muscle in hopes of accelerating his slugging. Unfortunately the Get Yoked, Go Smash technique solely raised his ISO by 20 factors, whereas his hard-hit fee truly acquired worse.

This yr, he’s elevated his common exit velocity by 3.9 mph, the third-highest bounce amongst certified gamers. Some of this may be defined by selecting higher pitches to hit and pulling the ball extra typically. Some of it could possibly possible be defined by improved well being, since Crawford performed by means of again, pec, leg, and knee accidents final season. Lastly, Crawford educated at Driveline this offseason, after taking six weeks to get well from all the accidents to all of his physique components.

While I used to be researching this text, I stumbled onto an episode of the Sea Level podcast that featured Maxx Garrett, the hitting coach who labored with Crawford this winter. I’m usually reluctant to attract a straight line from a swing change to improved outcomes. There are so many elements concerned in hitting. Seemingly all people comes into spring coaching in the very best form of their life and with a brand new swing. Some of these gamers are certain to enhance, and whereas the laborious work they put in throughout the offseason possible helped, giving all of the credit score to their new bat waggle is commonly a facile conclusion. However, Garrett gave host Ben Ranieri some fairly attention-grabbing particulars that dovetailed properly with what I discovered within the numbers.

First, Garrett confirmed that the main focus was on bettering Crawford’s bat pace, as his plate self-discipline is already elite. Referring to his notes, he stated that Crawford’s bat pace was measured at 65.6 mph originally of coaching and 71.1 on the finish. “We saw some movement things, especially with his setup, his load, kind of that load, stride, into landing, where he was in some unique positions that not many of our high-level hitters get into,” stated Garrett. “And it was making it harder for him to produce as much force as he was capable of.”

Let’s go to the tape. On the left is a swing from 2022, and on the fitting is a swing from 2023:

I’ve pulled some stills under as an instance the variations. Crawford begins off along with his stance way more closed. He’s modified his bat angle, lowered his palms, and tucked each his palms and elbows nearer to his physique. Once he will get into his leg kick, he’s crouching barely deeper, his entrance shoulder is angled downward, and his shoulders are rotated additional away from the pitcher. If not for his hair, his total title could be seen on the again of his jersey. The follow-through makes it straightforward to see how a lot more durable Crawford is swinging, and the way a lot greater he’s ending. Keep in thoughts that Crawford crushes each of those pitches. They’re each middle-middle four-seamers that lead to hard-hit balls to right-center. Crawford truly hits the ball on the left a lot more durable, however take a look at how he finishes. He’s way more upright, a lot much less athletic. The swing on the fitting is clearly extra explosive:

Garrett additionally stated that they centered on Crawford’s assault angle, serving to him to hit the ball within the air extra. This is the half that made me sit up and hear: Garrett described a drill that concerned feeding Crawford fastballs from an especially excessive assault angle and from off to the facet, past the fitting base facet of the rubber. “So basically, an extreme lefty release,” he stated. “And that was forcing him to get his barrel out front, have it work up. His intent was to move fast, hit the ball higher, to the pull side. Really get his barrel out front, working up more into the ball.” To me, that seems like a reasonably good rationalization for the best way Crawford has been capable of assault fastballs, punish offspeed stuff, and pull the ball within the air this season.

The final thing I want to say is much less enjoyable. Crawford’s protection has been fairly dangerous this yr. A Gold Glover in 2020, Crawford’s 14 errors are tied for fifth-most within the league, and most defensive metrics rank him as one of many recreation’s worst fielders. That’s an actual bummer, as a result of if Crawford rated as even a league-average defender at brief, he could be a high 20 participant in all of baseball this season. It’s at all times good to take defensive metrics with a grain of salt, and any participant experiencing such a giant drop-off is a candidate to regress again to the imply the next season. Crawford has already turned himself into an All-Star caliber participant this season. If he can maintain on to a few of his beneficial properties on the plate and get his protection again towards the center of the pack, the long run is even brighter.

All numbers are as of Wednesday morning.