wheelhouse: I’m making an attempt to rebalance right here, but when Cole is out for the season, do you assume the Yankees are: A) a menace for the third wild card B) 100% useless within the water, stick a fork in them
2:05
Jay Jaffe: To borrow from Monty Python for a line that’s typically quoted in our family, “A fair question and one that in recent weeks ‘as been much on my mind.”
2:07
Jay Jaffe: I believe the reply to that relies upon upon how near the perfect variations of themselves different starters comparable to Cortes, Rodón and Stroman are in 2024. If the 2 holdovers pitch as they did final 12 months, the Yankees shall be toast
2:08
Jay Jaffe: if the three of them pitch as much as their capabilities and in the event that they get a good fill-in, all isn’t misplaced, however it might very effectively price them down the highway — both by way of a commerce or a essential payroll minimize in the event that they had been so as to add a giant wage to this 12 months
2:08
Killjoy: I do know the mantra “spring training stats are meaningless,” and normally they’re. But are there stats that you just do search for in an excellent or dangerous means? I noticed Chris Gilligan’s article final week on pitchers with elevated velo in ST and questioned if that was a stat (like Ok%) that stabilizes rapidly.
2:10
Jay Jaffe: I actually largely ignore spring stats. Especially early within the spring it’s simple to face out for those who’re ramping up rapidly however too typically it’s simply that some pitchers are extra ready to take action than others.
2:11
Angels vs devils: Is Nolan Schanuel the second coming of John Olerud—or Luis Arraez? Will the Angels keep on with him even when he hits simply 10 HRs a 12 months?
2:14
Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume he’s the second coming of both of them however his profile is extra like that of Arraez in that it is going to be excessive contact/decrease energy. He could have some vaguely Olerud-like plate self-discipline however Olerud had a bunch of 20-homer seasons and I don’t anticipate that from Schanuel
2:15
Beer Inspiration: It’s chilly and wet in Humboldt County, CA, the place I dwell. Having pals over for chili and Dodgers (me) vs. Giants (everybody else) preseason smack speak tomorrow night time. Any beer suggestions?
2:16
Jay Jaffe: I’d think about Pliny the Elder is fairly accessible there, and Russian River’s Blind Pig IPA, too
2:17
Jay Jaffe: On the Twitter craft beer thread that I’m on due to Eno Sarris, Cellarmaker turns up so much as effectively. Haven’t had any of their stuff however I do know it’s extremely regarded
2:17
Jay Jaffe: Speaking of Pliny, Ben Clemens despatched me some a pair weeks in the past. Now that’s what I search for in a teammate!
2:17
Johnnywaffles: Hypothetical: It’s 2034 and the HOF has modified its committees (once more). There is an period committee for 1950-1985 and you’ve got been requested to chair the committee to create the poll. No gamers from that period have been added for the reason that current. Who do you placed on the poll? Note: Clemens is in one other period.
2:20
Jay Jaffe: ooh, hmm. Dick Allen, Bobby Grich and Bill Freehan come to thoughts. Thurman Munson, Dwight Evans, Lou Whitaker as effectively. If I’ve received eight slots as the present poll, let’s add some pitching… Luis Tiant and Dave Stieb can be good ones.
2:20
Jay Jaffe: The downside with that’s that there are such a lot of good candidates that the votes may get unfold too skinny to get anybody the 75% consensus wanted.
2:23
Guest: Should JD Davis be extra indignant at a) the Giants; b) his agent; c) his union
2:24
Jay Jaffe: Davis received caught in one thing of an ideal storm as a result of he’ll solely get a fraction of his $6.9 million arb win. Via ESPN:
“Under baseball’s collective bargaining agreement, negotiated contracts for arbitration-eligible players are guaranteed, while salaries decided by an arbitration panel are not. That allowed the Giants to release Davis for 30 days’ termination pay, which came to $1,112,903.”
2:27
Jay Jaffe: It appears to be like just like the Giants filed at $6.55 million however that there was some dangerous feeling in regards to the timing of it relative to the potential of a settlement so i’d say the staff might be accountable greater than any of them. That mentioned, I believe Davis’ personal limitations as a participant are what made him weak to being on this place.
2:28
Jay Jaffe: It’s all a fairly robust break for him a method or one other, and he’s going to get so much much less as soon as he indicators elsewhere
2:28
birds birds birds: If you’re gonna pay an enormous AAV for (in all probability) a single season of a pitcher, then having that man miss all of spring and begin the season late looks like an enormous downside. With each passing day Snell/Monty are hurting their single season AAV. Assuming they’re not morons (or at the least Boras isn’t), does that imply they really nonetheless assume they’re getting 5-6 years?
2:28
Jay Jaffe: at this stage I believe it’s extra probably they get one thing just like the Bellinger deal, shorter time period and with opt-outs.
2:29
Mike Ortman: Way too early HOF query for the “Classic Baseball Era” committee: Are you for candidates like Jim McCormick, Bobby Mathews, Bill Dahlen, and Sherry Magee?
2:31
Jay Jaffe: The solely candidate from amongst those who quickens my pulse is Dahlen, however he was additionally not an incredible man even by turn-of-the-century ballplayer requirements. Though I do agree McCormick is ignored, Nineteenth-century pitchers from earlier than the times of 60-foot-6 don’t do a lot for me, and I believe his election would fulfill at most tens or perhaps tons of of individuals. I’d a lot relatively see Negro Leagues candidates on the poll instead of all 4 of these guys.
2:31
Misplaced A’s Fan: Will Curtis Mead and Miguel Vargas have fantasy relevance this season?
2:32
Jay Jaffe: More probably Mead than Vargas, I believe — he may make the Rays and see time at a number of positions. I don’t see a lot future for Vargas in LA
2:33
Pumpsie: Still superb to me that the Yankees and Dodgers didn’t find yourself with ANY of the premier FA shortstops of the previous couple of years. When Lindor, Correa, Seager, Turner et al had been approaching FA, it appeared inevitable that one can be a Yankee, one can be a Dodger. Do they remorse their selections to not allocate sources up-the-middle?
2:35
Jay Jaffe: I believe the Yankees OUGHT to remorse staying out of that market as a result of they haven’t gotten a lot of their place (Volpe shall be fantastic however may have been slotted elsewhere within the infield). While I believe the Dodgers would have been higher off signing a kind of guys, it now is smart that they had been retaining their powder dry for Ohtani. Still, they’ve weak up the center even when the Mookie experiement continues to pay dividends, as a result of Lux is a little bit of a large number
2:35
Kevin: Love all of your work, Jay. What are the highest few stuff you now perceive about baseball that you just didn’t know 5 or ten years in the past?
2:38
Jay Jaffe: Thanks, Kevin. I’d wish to assume I perceive all the things higher than I did 5-10 years in the past however particularly find out how to use Statcast information — which is a continuing studying course of — and getting a greater really feel for when completely different stats stabilize. Even so, the extra expertise I achieve, the extra I admire how a lot there nonetheless is to study.
2:41
Jay Jaffe: Apparently the Dan Evans tweet didn’t present up so right here it’s as a screenshot:
2:41
Jay Jaffe:
2:41
birds birds birds: FG Depth Charts has Acuna with 135 runs this 12 months! As a median projection! Is it actually potential that the median is one thing that occurs as soon as each 3-4 years?
2:43
Jay Jaffe: Wow, that does appear … kinda excessive. We’ve had simply 9 seasons of 135 or extra runs scored since 2001 so yeah, i’d in all probability take the below on that. Though I believe he’ll rating a ton of runs in what appears to be like like a formidable lineup
2:43
Southside Sam: Hi Jay, Do you assume we’ll ever see a major knuckleball pitcher once more within the MLB, or has the pitch has been phased out to the historical past books?
2:44
Jay Jaffe: Sadly I believe it’s the latter. With velocity so available, and with the power to make use of know-how to experiment with grips and optimize pitches, we’re going to see fewer junkballers survive lengthy sufficient to show to the knuckler. I actually hope I’m mistaken about this
2:45
Nate: Do you see Joey Votto taking part in for the Blue Jays this 12 months?
2:46
Jay Jaffe: More probably than not. Not as a full-timer, and he’ll nearly definitely begin the season in Buffalo, however I believe that if he’s stayed in form, being a second offseason faraway from shoulder surgical procedure must imply that he’s stronger.
2:46
Chip: Could the Yankees hypothetically run $400mm payrolls perpetually given their income?
2:47
Jay Jaffe: Probably however they’d get much less bang for his or her buck since the next % of that will be tied up in taxes and would compromise their participant improvement since they’d be choosing decrease, and so on.
2:47
Reliever corridor: Do Kenley and Kimbrel have pictures on the corridor? Why is Ok rod ignored so typically
2:51
Jay Jaffe: As for Ok-Rod, aside from the save whole, he’s a transparent step or two down from Wagner in run prevention and in dominance, to say nothing of his character, about which the much less mentioned the higher. Many voters really feel there’s already too many relievers within the Hall; with Wagner so near election, Ok-Rod could also be caught in a little bit of a backlash. But he additionally had an ERA greater than half a run increased
2:51
Mike Ortman: After the Oscars this weekend, what are your high baseball motion pictures?
2:54
Jay Jaffe: the identical as they had been earlier than: Bad New Bears and Bull Durham are tops and I by no means tire of them. I take pleasure in Eight Men Out regardless of the historic inaccuracies. The Bingo Long Traveling All-Stars film, with Richard Pryor, Billy Dee Williams, and James Earl Jones is form of a sleeper choose.
2:56
birds birds birds: Votto’s HOF case is principally totally baked at this level – there’s no extra spherical numbers to succeed in, his charges gained’t change a lot. I’m considering although that going again to Canada, being actual comfortable within the dugout, giving a number of extra pleasant interviews and customarily reminding everybody they love him might be the largest increase to his HOF possibilities I can think about.
2:57
Guest: Is it potential that Snell and the opposite Boras shoppers on the FA market will go unsigned into opening day?
2:58
Jay Jaffe: I’d say that appears impossible. I’d guess by this time subsequent week he’s signed.
2:58
birds birds birds: Re: the pitchers and lacking spring, I meant that in the event that they’re signing a short-term opt-out deal, then the signing staff is just getting worth from them in 2024, and by not signing these guys are actively hurting their 2024 worth
3:00
Jay Jaffe: certain, they’re taking a danger. But it’s not as if their eggs are solely in a single basket (I might anticipate a number of opt-outs) or that their suitors shall be unaware of the context of this season if they’ve gradual begins. It’s not a hard-and-fast “unless you get to 4.0 WAR there’s no reason to opt out” scenario.
3:00
rob: The Braves fifth starter spot appears prone to be both Lopez or Elder, however within the (pretty probably) even that neither is any good, and AJSS & Waldrep probably want extra time within the minors, what’s the transfer? Could there be a reprise of the 2019 Keuchel scenario?
3:02
Jay Jaffe: As in will they go exterior the group? i believe nearly each contender can afford to dip into the market of unsigned free agent starters and take a flyer. Michael Lorenzen? Jake Odorizzi? Rich Hill? They’re all on the market, as is Keuchel who’s been legitimately horrible for 3 straight years.
3:04
KC Pain: How do Holliday and Vlad examine when he was a prospect?
3:07
Jay Jaffe: Just Eric Longenhagen’s grades atop their participant playing cards, it appears to be like like Vladito was at the least a full grade increased when it comes to future worth for the offense classes and MUCH increased when it comes to current worth: 65 PV/70 FV hit and sport energy, 80/80 uncooked energy for Guerrero, 45/60 for hit, 25/60 for sport, 50/60 for uncooked
On the opposite hand, Holliday has a transparent edge in velocity and protection. Both graded out at 70 FV prospects, simply received there by way of completely different routes.
3:07
bringbackpologrounds: Who is extra prone to be the Venezuelan GOAT in 2035: Cabrera, Altuve, or Acuña?
3:10
Jay Jaffe: Cabrera’s mixture of 3000+ hits and 500+ homers is hard to beat. Altuve can have his work minimize out simply to get to the previous. Acuña’s energy/velocity combo is so tantalizing that if he stays wholesome he may at the least be probably the most thrilling of the three, however we’ve already seen one main damage from him and at the least a pair different scares.
3:11
birds birds birds: Do you place any weight on the concept the HOF isn’t merely for guys who had been glorious ballplayers, however who moreover carried a sure additional je ne sais quoi? Like, perhaps I’m nuts, however I can’t assist however really feel Andrew McCutchen has been a extra vital a part of baseball than the statistically superior Bobby Abreu or Jim Edmonds. Have I turn out to be previous and am simply complaining about computer systems declaring I’m mistaken?
3:14
Jay Jaffe: I believe your subjective viewpoint is doing a lot of the work there. McCutchen is the one one in all them who gained an MVP, however Edmonds was a key a part of two pennant winners, for instance.
3:15
Matt VW: Regarding baseball motion pictures: any love for Major League? Parts of it admittedly haven’t aged effectively, however I believe its on the sphere stuff–simply being in regards to the sport and never baseball as vaporous metaphor for X–holds up simply fantastic.
3:17
Jay Jaffe: It’s a enjoyable film, and I prefer it so much, nevertheless it’s not on my high tier. The ones I named share in frequent a bent for sharper critiques of baseball’s tradition and its place because the nationwide pastime.
3:17
Hugh: Is Everson Pereira + Oswald Peraza sufficient for Cease?
3:19
Jay Jaffe: no. If it had been, that deal would have been accomplished awhile in the past. My guess is the White Sox would need both Spencer Jones or Jasson Dominguez as the highest prospect from the Yankees, and that they’d need 3-4 prospects whole.
3:19
RH: Where do you want to take a seat when attending a ballgame?
3:21
Jay Jaffe: excessive third base aspect within the infield is form of my default. This is the place my pals and that i sit for our partial season bundle at Yankee Stadium
3:21
Jay Jaffe:
3:22
Jay Jaffe: If I generally is a bit decrease with out paying by way of the nostril, even higher however I have a tendency to not splurge an excessive amount of for tickets, because it’s uncommon {that a} single sport means a lot to me once I can get into any ballpark I have to throughout the common season by way of my credential.
3:23
Chip: Related to Cole’s elbow – have you ever ever heard of a participant on the lookout for ‘multiple opinions’ on one thing that may very well be pretty benign? It looks like that’s the buried lede there.
3:24
Jay Jaffe: I believe there are second opinions much more than you in all probability hear about, however whereas this may increasingly really feel like belt-and-suspenders territory, there aren’t many gamers on $300 million offers to train that form of warning over.
3:25
DF: I do know I ought to let it go, however isn’t the Mariners lacking out on Soto one of many largest whiffs of the offseason? I don’t know what discussions they might have had, nevertheless it’s laborious to think about a greater match on a one-year deal. And they simply may have matched what the Yankees despatched to SD. Thoughts?
3:29
Jay Jaffe: I believe for those who’re evaluating them, so much comes all the way down to tolerance of danger. The Yankees may afford to take one by clearing out loads of higher stage depth plus King whereas figuring out they’ll spend huge if wanted, and dwell with the probability Soto would stroll away as a free agent, whereas the Mariners didn’t really feel like they had been as effectively positioned to take action given the even better probability Soto departed.
3:30
Jay Jaffe: Ok of us, that’s it from me right here. Chats may be scarce for the remainder of the month attributable to PPRs and journey however I’ll attempt to get one in. Enjoy spring coaching!
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior author for FanGraphs, the writer of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame evaluation. He based the Futility Infielder web site (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing author for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring visitor on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe… and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
Jay Jaffe: With that, let’s get going.
