Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/25/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us!

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the present

International Baseball: The Montreal Expos have one of the crucial iconic logos of all time  and there appears to be a renewed curiosity in baseball. Can Montreal or Mexico City be taken critically as growth groups? How does the calculus of not being an American workforce think about?

Jay Jaffe: I feel not being an American workforce complicates issues exponentially. I do know there’s a number of sentiment in the case of returning baseball to Montreal however it’s by no means clear that anybody can get a ballpark constructed there, and with out that, you’ve received bupkis.

Mac: Is the yankees’ lineup as dangerous because it seems to be

Jay Jaffe: It shouldn’t be this dangerous. They’re lacking Giancarlo Stanton, Harrison Bader, and Josh Donaldson, and Aaron Judge has been slumping since Stanton went down, to the purpose that they’ve gotten only a 96 wRC+ from all three outfield spots, down from 115 a yr in the past. Yes, they need to have executed extra to improve left discipline, and sure, they in all probability shouldn’t be rostering each IKF and Hicks (to not mentoin each Franchy and Willie Calhoun)

Jay Jaffe: so it could possibly be rocky within the close to time period

Daniel: How possible is it that Spencer Strider can keep a Ok% over 40% for the yr? It’s by no means been executed outdoors of 2020.

Jay Jaffe: I feel you simply answered the query for us. I don’t anticipate Strider to take care of a 42.6% Ok fee. Worth noting that 4 of his 5 outings (all besides the Nationals) have been towards groups within the higher half of the 30 groups by way of strikeout charges.

Ben: What do you consider Scherzer’s suspension for “cheating”? Do you suppose it should value him any Hall of Fame votes?

Jay Jaffe: I feel it ought to have been decreased or waived if he actually was following the instructions of the umpires. I don’t suppose this makes a gnat’s fart of a distinction in the case of Hall of Fame assist — aside from a number of assholes who determined to sleep off their hangovers on the fainting sofa earlier than lastly deigning to vote for 300-win/3000-strikeout Gaylord Perry I can’t consider a pitcher whose ball-doctoring allegations value him notable HOF assist

Guest: What do you consider Bob Johnson’s case for the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: Great hitter who spent his ages 23-26 and 40-42 seasons within the PCL when he was in all probability main league caliber. He’s twentieth amongst LF in JAWS and wouldn’t be a horrible selection however his period is overrepresented within the Hall and he’s competing with everyone as much as 1980, Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates for a type of eight valuable poll spots. I don’t see it occurring for him underneath the present framework and might’t get too labored up about it.

Daniel: How lengthy can the Braves hold trotting out Ozuna? It actually looks as if he’s not going to be a productive participant once more.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know what they’re ready for. -1.5 WAR in components of three seasons underneath this deal and a DV suspension as effectively. He’s as sunk as sunk prices get.

A: Brandon Marsh breakout for actual?

Jay Jaffe: He’s massively forward of his .239 xBA and .475 xSLG however these numbers are effectively forward of his 2021-22 x-stats. Good discount in chase and swinging strike charges, strikeout fee down a bit however nonetheless excessive. Not able to name him a star however fairly probably on his strategy to above-average common territory

Ray: Hey Jay, been studying your work for a very long time.  Respect.  Is pitching to contact, nice D, and speak to hitting a sustainable answer to place the Cubs in rivalry for a wild card?  Any assistance on the farm that may be a gamechanger?  Your ideas are appreciated.

Jay Jaffe: should you’re going the contact route on each side of the ball you want nearly every part to go proper. These Cubs do rank third within the NL in slugging however they’ve an xSLG of .368 so I’m not tremendously optimistic they’ll keep this, and I don’t suppose a lot of their rotation. Prospect-wise they’ve introduced up their most MLB-ready Top 100 man in Hayden Wesneski, and Javier Assad is up as effectively. I don’t see any game-changers able to assist in 2023 until they hit the fuel on Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has all of 9 video games of Double-A underneath his belt.

Big Bucs: The Pirates paid Bryan Reynolds??? He ought to take the workforce for a pleasant dinner. I doubt that contract occurs if the Pirates don’t have the most effective report within the NL by way of the primary 20+ video games. Cheapo proprietor in all probability realized they’re going to be extra aggressive within the subsequent couple years than they’d thought previous to the beginning of the season

Jay Jaffe: I feel you’re off base right here in that the framework of the deal is similar because it was round Opening Day, earlier than they had been 16-7. The distinction is that he dropped his opt-out demand and received restricted no-trade safety as an alternative, a transparent win for the membership. It’s a really affordable deal

Mike M: Your up to date prediction for the Dodgers win complete?  Your up to date prediction for his or her win complete if Mookie performs 20 video games at SS?

Jay Jaffe: i’d say it’s about 84 wins both means. Weird instances.

toshi: How lengthy do we’ve to attend to see whether or not Kelenic has actually modified for higher? Thank you!

Jay Jaffe: it’s beginning to come into focus and it seems to be very actual and far, a lot better. The contact is rather more frequent and extra productive when it occurs. I don’t anticipate him to maintain slugging .667 or placing up a 189 wRC+ however i feel his days of hitting .141 and placing out 1/3 of the time are behind him

chris: was baseball-reference playoff odds vs. fangraph playoff odds. Some groups are waayyyyy totally different, essentially the most surprising being the Padres. Sitting at 78.5% playoff odds right here and 19.4% (!!!!) at baseball-reference. 538 splits the distinction at 66%. Are these vastly totally different percentages even attainable???

Jay Jaffe: I do not know how FiveThirtyEight does their odds both (ugh, bummer concerning the layoffs there).

Tstats: ‘Ello Jay! do you suppose savant will launch VAA knowledge quickly? if not is there a spot to search out it (and even its elements for the formulation?). I lately spent every week computing IVB knowledge only for the day I end be the day savant releases its leaderboards!

Max Muncy, That Funky Muncy: What a heater Muncy is on! Balls seem juiced this yr because it appears HR numbers are up throughout the board

Jay Jaffe: Home runs are up about 6% relative to final yr, fly ball ditsances are up about 4 ft relative to video games by way of April 24 in 2022 and ’23 seasons, and per Rob Arthur, drag is down a bit: “This year, we’re on track for a baseball that’s roughly as aerodynamic as it was in 2020 and 2021, leading to high but not stratospheric home run numbers.” https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/81981/moonshot-drag-20…

Insert Witty Name Here: We’re nearly a month into the brand new season and the pitch clock and shift guidelines are…not likely noticeable? Your ideas on the early going?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say they’re noticeable however not distracting. I feel there are some dumb purposes of the pitch clock (penalizing Bellinger for the ovation) and I may stand a few additional seconds of slack however we’re seeing as a lot if no more time minimize off throughout common season video games as we did in spring coaching. Batting averages and BABIP are up, offense is up. a promising begin.

NihilistDuda: As a Mets fan, really feel fairly good proper now with 4 starters out and a 7-3 West Coast swing (often our loss of life knell). Thoughts on the Amazins to date, Jay?

Jay Jaffe: They’ve weathered a number of dangerous luck early. I’m much more involved about their rotation depth than I in any other case could be given Scherzer’s early struggles; he’s wanting very 38 proper now.

JR: So unhappy about O’Hoppe. What are the possibilities this damage considerably impacts his efficiency into 2024 or past?

Jay Jaffe: There’s undoubtedly an opportunity, notably as his left shoulder is his lead shoulder as a hitter, which may sap energy. Tatis, Bellinger, Greg Bird and Matt Kemp come to thoughts as hitter who had lead/non-throwing labrum accidents, and so they provide some cautionary tales.

NihilistDuda: I do know it’s tremendous early in his profession however ideas on Pete Alonso’s bid for the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: not excessive. He’s received implausible energy and is a reliable first baseman however whereas he’s put up massive HR numbers, his OBPs are meh, and he’s s received one 5.5-WAR season and two within the low 4s to date — he wants some 6 and 7s to begin constructing a Hall case. Preseason ZiPS tasks him for profession totals of 442 homers and 33.5 WAR, which gained’t get it executed.

Richie: Clearly Spencer Strider doesn’t NEED third pitch to achieve success….but when he developed one? Should he? Is it attainable to be higher? Or is the “stick to what you excel at” the most effective factor for him?

Jay Jaffe: IMO it’s not a query of if Strider will want a 3rd pitch however when, as a result of he gained’t be capable to Bring It like this eternally. Clearly he doesn’t want it immediately (or in time for his subsequent begin)

Mookie: Red Sox lately sending down one of many few thrilling items on their workforce in Bryan Bello. Are they turning into the Rockies?

Jay Jaffe: he’s received two begins, each with three or extra runs in fewer than 5 innings. He’s received promise however the pleasure have to be coming in brief bursts as a result of a 9.82 ERA and 6.62 FIP isn’t going to get it executed. He’s additionally received choices remaining, so I’d anticipate him to be shuttling when it fits the Red Sox, as much as the purpose that he reaches his five-time restrict.

I say Halo: This may actually be essentially the most pivotable time within the historical past of the Angels franchise.  Hovering round .500 with a little bit over 2 months till we method the deadline.  Shohei keep or Shohei go? How do you see it enjoying out, patrons for a run or the largest sale ever on the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: I feel they’re higher than this however… they don’t appear to care what I feel on that topic and demand on enjoying .500sh ball. Right now I’d be stunned in the event that they commerce him as a result of I feel they imagine they’ll spend as massive as any workforce, and have confirmed they’ll deal with him in a means that works. But if they’ll’t get it collectively over the following 2 1/2 months I feel they’ve to think about doing the unthinkable.

Sharp: I actually loved your article about Salt Lake City growth. My buddies who reside within the space acted like there was no means it was attainable. But I like serious about various places and based mostly on their proposal it sounds prefer it’s a protracted shot however it *may* work.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks. I feel it’s one which even the locals may need bother wrapping their heads round however it does appear to have extra items in place than your common growth bid — location, transit, main possession group with expertise in operating a serious sports franchise AND in getting a facility constructed. The local weather (the lake) is a serious situation and that i simply don’t know what the political will is wish to sort out the water rights stuff that’s exacerbating the state of affairs.

Derek: Is this model of Cody Bellinger right here to remain (and keep profitable)? I hesitate to ask if he’s “back” as a result of this low-Ok, excessive contact, middling exit velo profile doesn’t actually appear to resemble something he’s ever appeared like, even when he was good!

Jay Jaffe: You know that Bart Simpson chalkboard bit within the opening credit of the Simpsons? The model of me in that one is writing:

I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
and so on

A’s relocation: Am I flawed to suppose that issues in all probability gained’t work out very effectively for the A’s in Las Vegas? They’re transferring from one of many largest inhabitants and TV markets to one of many smallest, and so they suppose vacationers are going to assist fill their stadium 81 instances a yr.

Jay Jaffe: It certain as hell doesn’t look all that rosy should you’re not John Fisher and Dave Kaval. I don’t love their odds, and really feel like they’re the basic determined gambler pulling into Vegas believing they’re as a consequence of flip issues round.

Christian: A twist on all of the Kelenic questions I’m certain you’re uninterested in getting: what does a Kelenic extension appear to be if he performs at an All-Star degree the remainder of the yr?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a query for Dan and his ZiPSmobile

LFGM: Syndergaard’s fastball is down a number of ticks since his TJ surgical procedure.  Will he get his velocity again one other yr faraway from surgical procedure or is that this it?

Jay Jaffe: the hype was presupposed to be that he’d be BACK this yr however he’s appeared fairly mediocre, and his fastball scores only a 63 on Stuff+, down 3 factors from final yr; his general Stuff+ has fallen from 87 to 76. Look out beneath!

Charlie: When is it time to panic for St. Louis?

Jay Jaffe: now’s an excellent time on condition that rotation

Pattern Developing: 2018: Aaron Judge units rookie HR report with 52.  2019: Pete Alonso breaks report with 53 HR.  2022: Aaron Judge units league report with 62 HR.  2023: Pete Alonso …………….

Jay Jaffe: … doesn’t surpass Judge’s 62 homers. Judge received to the place he received to with a 95.8 mph common exit velo, 26.2% barrel fee and a .706 xSLG. Alonso doesn’t have the aptitude of manufacturing specs like that (averaging 91.2 mph, 17.9% barrel fee, .657 xSLG) — however then nearly no person on earth can produce specs like that.

Jay Jaffe: There’s no disgrace in that, however I don’t suppose Judge is sensible as a yardstick.

Matt VW: Triston Casas is off to a fairly rocky begin. How a lot of that is “it’s April,” how a lot of that is “sometimes adjusting to the bigs takes a minute,” and the way a lot of that is “the Red Sox have seen a ton of left-handed pitching to start the season”?

Jay Jaffe: There’s in all probability a component of reality to all of those however he’s been solely had 23 PA towards lefties and is hitting .106/.246/.255 in 57 PA towards righties, which appears to me like an even bigger downside.

Rick Ankielosaurus: If baseball had begun with DH and its latest Ohtani guidelines, wouldn’t there have already been some two-way gamers with sustained elite two-way manufacturing? Maybe Ohtani is a greater SP than a completely two-way Ruth would have been, however he isn’t hitting at Ruth’s degree. W.Ferrell allowed to full-time DH. Dihigo, interval. Ohtani’s spectacular, after all, however isn’t the extent to which he’s unprecedented reliant on pleasant guidelines his predecessors didn’t get to profit from?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, there could also be one thing to that however Ferrell and Ruth had been enjoying in segregated leagues that excluded a few of the easiest expertise round, the place Ohtani is competing towards a a lot greater degree of expertise.

Aidan: I don’t know if he turned heads outdoors of Oakland, however is Mason Miller prone to shoot up the prospect rankings, or is it nonetheless too small a pattern measurement? He hit 102.5  mph in his debut.

Jay Jaffe: I’d say it’s fairly early. His Top 100 rating included a 70-grade fastball but additionally 30/40 command, and factored his damage threat in there. Let’s wait and see.

Jay Jaffe: Ok of us, a number of good questions within the queue  however I’ve gotta relaxation my arm (critically, my shoulder hurts after I performed catch with a buddy on Friday and threw full-tilt for the primary time in not less than 6 years). Thanks for stopping by, and we’ll see you subsequent week!