Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/18/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people!

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to my first chat of the second half of the 2023 season

Kyle B: Hey Jay! Over the all star break we heard a ton of speak in regards to the new CBA and began listening to whispers in regards to the subsequent one….do you suppose we’re staring down one other lockout in 2026? Possibly missed video games in 2027?

Jay Jaffe: there’s a enjoyable thought. While I believe some house owners are dumb sufficient to attempt one other lockout and make noise about instituting a wage cap, that can solely occur if Hell freezes over and Rob Manfred performs within the Ice Capades. I don’t suppose we’ll see missed video games

Jed Skeptic: Selling Stroman and Bellinger look like the *apparent* strikes for Jed to make. What are some bolder issues to think about , with a purpose to give this org a vital shakeup ?

Jay Jaffe: Probably buying and selling cost-certainty guys similar to Happ and Hoerner, not that both one goes to convey again that a lot as a result of they’re not precisely blowing the doorways off issues. Sure, you possibly can commerce a pre-arb man like Justin Steele, however the place is that actually going to get you apart from a pair extra years away from having a pleasant younger controllable starter? The actual downside right here is that this isn’t a very younger roster with high-ceiling guys. You’re not going to show it right into a contender by wheeling and dealing very simply

BenZobrist4MVP: Thank you for the Cooperstown Notebook collection, Jay! I’m interested in Christian Yelich, because you didn’t point out him. He has had considerably of a rebound this yr and is youthful than Semien with extra profession WAR. I do know he wound want a number of extra peak seasons, however do you suppose it’s attainable for him to get again on Hall monitor?

Jay Jaffe: Circa 2019, Yelich appeared like he was on a HOF-bound path, however within the 3 1/2 seasons since, he’s totaled 7.2 WAR, which is about what he averaged in 2018-19. He’s hitting the ball more durable now than at any time since these two massive seasons, and his 2.8 bWAR is his seventh-best season, however he’s solely bought the aforementioned two as his seasons above 5.0 — he wants about 4 extra good ones to essentially appear like a stable candidate, and that is for a man with a historical past of again issues. I’m simply by no means optimistic.

Spach: What do you consider Trea for RoS?

Jay Jaffe: I believe he left his mojo in Los Angeles. Jeez, what a bleak season. High chase fee, eaten alive by four-seam fastballs. Maybe you may assume some constructive regression primarily based on his age and monitor document however I don’t suppose he’s a man I’d financial institution upon to get scorching.

BenZobrist4MVP: Is pitcher protection accounted for in any respect in bWAR? If so, how a lot of a JAWS bump do nice fielders like Greg Maddux, Mark Buehrle, and Zack Greinke get from their very own fielding? If not, is that one thing we should always take extra into consideration or is the defensive worth too negligible to matter?

Jay Jaffe: Pitcher protection is already baked into the run prevention and the adjustment for the standard of protection (RA9def within the Player Value part), so these guys don’t get double-counted for his or her glovework.

Jay Jaffe: Pitcher Gold Gloves: whoop-de-damn-doo

coors lightyear: how dangerous was the mookie betts commerce

Jay Jaffe: Honestly, it seems to be higher as we speak than it did on the outset of the season, which isn’t saying rather a lot, however Verdugo is having his finest yr since 2020 and Wong is a cromulent backup catcher (albeit with awful framing). And look how financially versatile the Red Sox are! They can signal aces like Corey Kluber, roll out an enormous extension for Trevor Story, and, uh…

Deeee: I’ve loved your HOF collection not too long ago, attainable piece on managers/entrance workplace members coming?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll write these guys up as candidates; i don’t suppose it’s as a lot enjoyable to cowl them in mid-career.

mmddyyyy: After you write a couple of participant, are you extra excited to observe them play?

Jay Jaffe: Yes. While in fact it’s watching the performances that will get me sufficient in a participant to put in writing about him, it’s usually *after* trying on the numbers that I acquire a brand new appreciation and begin to discover new issues.

Cameron: With how dangerous the AL Central and the way good the AL East is do you suppose it’s time to remove divisions and simply have the AL/NL solely?

Jay Jaffe: Division play is meant to make it in order that groups play the majority of their video games in shut proximity and hold the quantity of journey below management. Do away with divisions and also you’ve out of the blue bought a complete lot extra journey for everybody; even this yr’s extra balanced schedule upped the overall estimated air miles by 7% and positively elevated the variety of occasions every group has to cross a number of time zones, which is what actually contributes to fatigue and jet lag. I’ve little question that the division system will likely be reassessed within the subsequent spherical of growth, however I do hope they protect some semblance of it; it’s a hidden quality-of-life concern for the gamers.

Guest: For place gamers and pitchers, the system for present voters appears pretty predictable, and no less than pretty near your considering. Some mix of general worth with peak output. Throw in some weight for counting quantity milestones, playoff success, and whatnot. But for relievers, it appears rather more arbitrary. Billy Wagner on the verge of enshrinement whereas Nathan and Papelbon don’t get a sniff. Is the cement dry on voter considering on relievers, or is there shifting thought on what weight to present to innings, utilization, fee statistics, leverage, playoffs and extra?

Jay Jaffe: I believe with the Wagner candidacy we’ve seen voters get a bit extra excited about fee stats, as his are so excessive. I’ve famous that he has the document for the bottom opponent batting common and highest strikeout fee on the 900-inning cutoff. Kenley Jansen simply pitched his 800th inning, so if you happen to decrease the bar, he’s bought the lead in each classes. I’m unsure how a lot decrease you may go in innings than Wagner and nonetheless be a viable candidate, although.

Long story brief, I believe voter opinion on relievers is considerably malleable, however they do do get pleasure from some quantity of sizzle, which might be why Nathan and Papelbon didn’t get far of their candidacies

Mike M: Yeah, yeah, Ohtani received’t get traded, however the place would you like to see him play out the remainder of the season?  Assuming he did get traded

Jay Jaffe: For egocentric causes I’d be glad to see him taking part in half his video games in New York. The fan in me would like to see him in Dodger blue.

Curious: I’ve a battle in regards to the HoF.  On the one hand, I wish to see sure gamers in there, similar to Bonds and Flood; however on the opposite, their absence is a credibility concern for me.  Paradoxically, I really feel like I each care and don’t care.  Have you needed to resolve an identical feeling?

Jay Jaffe: I believe you must perceive that it’s an imperfect establishment whose membership has been formed by some outsized forces and whose electoral processes are tinged by business politics. I don’t suppose there’s anybody who agrees with each choice; my hope is to see some additions that I agree with to offset those I don’t.

The different factor to recollect is that the Hall isn’t simply the plaque room and the infinite annual arguments. It’s a a world-class analysis facility and an exquisite, quirky museum of the sport’s historical past. Over the previous decade or two, the Hall has achieved a very good job of modernizing its reveals. It’s value a go to even if you happen to’re conflicted, since you’ll discover a lot to like there.

Chris: The Cardinals had been not too long ago rumored to cowl Logan Gilbert. Would you do a Jordan walker for Gilbert commerce if you happen to had been all sides?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t do that if I’m the Mariners. Walker is perhaps a big-time bat however his protection is a damaging; his worth takes an enormous hit if he’s restricted to DH, and I might relatively see a zombie one-legged Bill Veeck within the outfield than see Walker chasing a fly ball.

mac: Have we seen the final contending Yankees group for years? They’re already lacking the playoffs this season, and so they’re slowed down with costly mid-late-30s declining veterans with a seamless incapacity to develop their prospects into good main league hitters. What’s the possibility they’re a final place group in, say, 3 or 4 of the subsequent 5 years?

Jay Jaffe: But the magic of Sean Casey is about to show them round!

Jay Jaffe: He’s going to TALK to gamers!

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose the entire image is as dire because it seems to be proper now. Volpe has made good progress after his early struggles, and guys like Peraza and Cabrera are too younger to surrender on. I believe I’d commerce Gleyber Torres now and open up an infield spot to present each an opportunity to say themselves.

Steve: I’ve began some future HOF candidates and I used to be stunned to see how underwhelming Yadi Molina’s WAR numbers are. What does his JAWS rating appear like?

Bert: Snell and Hader for a package deal of Leiter and Rocker +… who say no?

Jay Jaffe: The Rangers. Rocker simply underwent TJ however I don’t see them sacrificing him AND Leiter for leases given the energy of the present roster.

Bert: If you’re the Padres do you remorse making the Soto commerce now? Wood continues to rise, Gore is settling in as a mid-rotation piece, Abrams isn’t strolling however getting higher

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose so, as a result of the Soto commerce actually did ignite fan curiosity within the group, and he’ll nonetheless convey again some high quality younger gamers in the event that they do determine to flip him (assuming they don’t suppose they’ll re-sign him)

BCB: Next season the NBA is implementing a midseason match for a money prize with a purpose to convey some pleasure to the early a part of the schedule since lots of people tune out till the playoff hunt. Do you will have any enjoyable gimmicky concepts that you just suppose MLB might check out? Doesn’t should be tremendous real looking essentially however simply attention-grabbing.

Jay Jaffe: My super-gimmicky concept is let solely the highest 4 groups in every league into the playoffs.

Scratch that, if we wish to make it somewhat wild, sure, let’s do that. Expand to 32 groups/4 divisions per league. Each division winner will get into the playoffs, and a match amongst all the opposite groups will get the winner the spot because the customer in a one-game Wild Card towards the worst of these division winners. A scorching week might get an in any other case 100-loss group a shot within the postseason

Bert: If Tatis goes on to string collectively a bunch of 5-6 WAR season all through his twenties and early thirties do you suppose the writers vote him in?

Jay Jaffe: I believe his shot on the Hall of Fame goes to rely as a lot on what he does off the sphere as on. He can nonetheless be the thrilling, demonstrative participant that he’s, however he’s going to have to hold himself as a job mannequin and display actual progress to persuade voters that he understands he made a youthful mistake. I believe he’s able to redeeming himself, but it surely’s not going to occur simply by stringing collectively 30- or 40-homer seasons.

Jay Jaffe: Whoops, that’s a phrase salad. let me re-edit.

Planet Dust: Dan briefly responded to a query (not from me) about Acuna’s drop in strikeout fee in a chat a couple of weeks again, mainly saying it appeared sustainable. I used to be questioning if it’s as dramatic because it seems and the way widespread this type of drop is. It looks as if an enormous deal to me however perhaps it actually isn’t.

Jay Jaffe: From a latest Davy Andrews piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/this-time-ronald-acuna-jr-is-back/):

Acuña is taking extra strikes this yr, however he’s making up for it by whiffing approach much less. He’s reduce his strikeout fee by an astonishing 11.5 proportion factors, from 23.6% to 12.4%. I checked strikeout charges all the way in which again to 1900; excluding the shortened 2020 season, solely two certified gamers have ever dropped their strikeout fee by 10 proportion factors:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: so sure, that’s fairly unusual.

Joseph: Hey Jay! I do know you made a remark about it in Part III of the Cooperstown Notebook, however do you suppose the Mets will commerce Verlander/Scherzer and what that form of deal seems to be like?

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s going to be very onerous to deal them. Both have full no-trade safety, and each are clearly owed a ton of cash, some quantity of which should be absorbed by the Mets to get any form of return. I can see them consuming $20 million and getting a few top-100ish prospects, and perhaps construct out a bigger deal to get some prepared expertise as nicely.

Marshall: How would you rank Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, and Grienke by way of “greatest pitcher of the ’00s”?

Jay Jaffe: Probably alongside the traces of JAWS, with Kershaw and Verlander neck-and-neck

Failed Rebuild: Hi Jay: for groups which are out of it,  why not commerce somebody (like CWS with Giolito) now relatively than 8/1. Acquiring group will get extra begins and thus extra worth.

Jay Jaffe: There’s actually one thing to be mentioned for that, but it surely normally means overpaying by going the “buy it now” route as a substitute of the public sale route. Most groups on both facet of such offers have a tough time pulling the set off as a result of they harbor hopes they’ll get a greater deal

Anon21: Does Acuña get his 40 homers? I say sure, as a result of I’ve a superstitious perception that he can simply change his swing and hit 6 in every week if he desires to (primarily based on watching him hit 6 in every week a number of occasions earlier than).

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose it’s going to take superstition; he’s bought 23 HR now and initiatives for 14-15 relying on which system you’re utilizing, and for a man who’s been exceeding projections by means of the primary half to do this within the second half as nicely isn’t a shocker.

Pedro: What are your ideas about how Peraza will fare now that Yankees known as him up lastly?  Will they offer him as a lot rope as Volpe has acquired?  Thanks prematurely

Jay Jaffe: It’s a matter of alternative. I don’t know that they’re going to present him a transparent shot at every day taking part in time come hell or excessive water they approach they did Volpe; they’re in all probability going to have LeMahieu and/or IKF within the combine too.

Benny: What occurred to Yasmani Grandal? Through 2021 he appeared like a darkish horse Hall candidate (no less than if you happen to rely framing worth and go by fWAR as a substitute of bWAR). But the final 2 years he has been–not good. How did he so out of the blue go from All-Star caliber to sub-replacement caliber? This yr he isn’t even strolling or framing, which was his 2 standout expertise.

Jay Jaffe: My hunch is that the knee and again accidents and his workload have caught as much as him.

Chip: Jeff, I’d prefer to request that Fangraphs informs us forward of time if there’s going to be every week by which Cooperstown Progress Report, 2024 ZIPs Changes, and Trade Value Series all get launched. I’ve a bunch of PTO and I took none. None!!

(Love all of the stuff popping out these days. Thanks!)

Jay Jaffe: Jeff’s not right here, man.

Jay Jaffe: July is an enormous month for us on the positioning due to the draft, the All-Star stuff, and the belongings you word, and later this week and all of subsequent will characteristic my Replacement Level Killers collection, highlighting weak spots on contenders. You may want a staycation to maintain up!

Insert Witty Name Here: If Greg Maddux got here up in todays recreation, would he nonetheless grow to be a HoFer?

Jay Jaffe: I believe he’d have a more durable time getting observed attributable to his lack of velocity, truthfully, and it might take him longer to succeed in the majors than his precise debut at 20. But I believe he’d in all probability break by means of ultimately due to his supreme command and pitchability.

Broader HoF: Joe Posnanski introduced up Vin Scully in certainly one of his newest weblog posts, mentioning that he believes Vin ought to make the corridor as a contributor (i.e. past his already having acquired the Frick Award), and I used to be curious as to your ideas on this level. Do you are feeling that that is viable/that Vin deserves a spot within the Hall? Or is that opening a can of worms? (I’m unsure a technique or one other, although I believe I facet on Vin already being acknowledged as a lot or greater than any broadcaster already)

Jay Jaffe: While I’d put him forward of just about each different broadcaster who ever walked the earth, I believe this looks like opening a can of worms, particularly if it prevents voters from contemplating extra gamers.

Angels assist: Dodgers would in all probability supply probably the most prime finish prospects for Ohtani and we suck at creating our personal expertise until it’s trout or Ohtani. Will Arte’s ego hold him from transferring him on the deadline? Or will he be traded some other place?

Jay Jaffe: I believe he received’t be traded partly due to Arte’s ego (together with a perception that he will be re-signed, which completely received’t occur if he’s traded), and partly as a result of the Angels received’t be to this point underwater that the transfer is the plain one.

Chip Locke: Have you tried your hand at Immaculate Grid? It is a superb Remember Some Guys check. Or, the typically extra enjoyable, Definitely Remember This Guy But Just Remembered He Spent a Miniscule Amount of Time on Team X check.

Jay Jaffe: Yes, I’ve been taking part in roughly every day for the previous few weeks. It’s a enjoyable little recreation and I applaud each the sport’s inventor, Brian Minter, and the oldsters at Baseball Reference for recognizing a very good factor and giving it a bigger platform. it’s a pleasant little success story

Jake Marogersnik: Who do you suppose is the subsequent unanimous HOF entrant, if anybody? Pujols, Ichiro, Miggy, or Trout appear the most definitely imo

Jay Jaffe: Ichiro might be the one a type of I can see getting 100%. Each of the remainder can have some bitter asshole saying, “But he didn’t do ____” or “But his contract…” and considering that justifies a no-vote.

Guest: If you needed to choose yu darvish or sonny grey ros who would you relatively have?

Jay Jaffe: in all probability Gray as a result of Darvish has been getting hit these days.

Astros: Shouldn’t they be extra prepared to exceed the tax? They simply received the championship. Do you see the Belli and Stroman rumors coming true? Chicago in all probability desires to ship cash and get higher prospects? Or am I studying them incorrect?

Jay Jaffe: They SHOULD be prepared to exceed the tax, however the struggle profiteer has all the time been frugal, and I’d guess that if a Bellinger/Strman deal goes down, it’ll occur as a result of the Astros had been in a position to keep beneath the edge, presumably by unloading one other wage elsewhere.

Q: Scott Harris tells Javy Baez that he’s not going to begin in 2024. Does Javy choose out?

Jay Jaffe: no, as a result of he’s by no means, ever, going to see a contract of that dimension once more given how badly he’s performed in Detroit.

Jon: I do know Kelenic continues to be younger and he’s picked issues up in July however his Ok% continues to be atrocious. Long time period, do you suppose he’s something greater than a good OF?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know if he’s fairly the star within the making that the Mariners hoped he could be, however I believe there’s nonetheless time for progress. He’ll be low-cost for awhile but, so that you may as nicely determine it out.

Guardians Maniac: If you had been the Guardians how would you deal with the glut of center infielders? Cleveland has Brito, Freeman, Gimenez, Arias and Rocchio all obtainable for at most three spots. Are Freeman and Arias value sufficient to get one thing helpful in return? Or has Cleveland pickled themselves?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll be sincere, I don’t have a deep information of the entire prospects right here, however I believe one actual concern is that each Gimenez and Rosario have been so mediocre that they wouldn’t command as a lot in commerce as they’d in the event that they had been taking part in as much as their capabilities. I’m certain you’d get one thing for Freeman (50 FV final yer) and Arias (45 FV this yr) however i don’t suppose you’re going to get game-changes.

Guest: What are the probabilities that Semien strings collectively a Beltre-esque run of excellence by means of his 30s and places collectively a powerful HOF case?

Jay Jaffe: not very excessive however he’s put himself able the place it’s no less than attainable.

Marshall: I simply appeared up Acuna’s stats, and his per-162 recreation averages are 38HR and 40SB. That’s fairly superior!

Jay Jaffe: he’s fairly unimaginable!

shortstop: Probably the one time Ortiz and Belanger have been in contrast for his or her offensive skills.

Jay Jaffe: My considering too!

Jay Jaffe: Ok people, quite a lot of good questions int he queue, a lot of which might take extra time to reply than I can do in a chat (I don’t have a catchy two-sentence answer to switch Brian Cashman at GM, sorry).

Jay Jaffe: I’m headed as much as Cooperstown for Induction Weekend on Friday. If you’re there, give me a shout!