Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/22/23

Jay Jaffe: Hey people, welcome to my Tuesday chat. I’m again from California and can dive in right here in a couple of minutes after I add a short addition to in the present day’s forthcoming piece in regards to the Giants’ offensive struggles. Stand by for a number of…

Jay Jaffe: that piece might be out shortly.

Matt VW: Mookie Betts is on tempo for 44 homers. Can you consider anybody else his measurement who’s hit 40? Campanella’s listed on the identical (alleged) top, however had a very completely different construct…

Jay Jaffe: With the caveat that listed heights don’t at all times match up with actuality, there have been three seasons by which a participant 5’9″ (Mookie’s listed top) or shorter have hit 40 homers, none of them current: Mel Ott 42 in 1929, Hack Wilson (who was 5’6″ however barrel-chested) 56 in 1930, and Campanella 41 in 1953.

Jay Jaffe: José Ramírez, listed at 5’9″ and significantly extra Mookie-shaped, hit 39 in 2018

That Guy: Two questions that are associated – Is Brian Cashman’s seat flaming scorching, and will or not it’s? This season is a catastrophe.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume it’s flaming scorching, however it’s most likely fairly heat, and whereas I don’t assume he’s going anyplace, it’s fairly clear that if he stays some vital modifications might be wanted in that entrance workplace. Part of the difficulty, for higher or worse, is that Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t appear terribly motivated to scrub home and begin anew with one other head of baseball operations.

mac: Should the Yankees commerce Cole and Judge within the offseason as a courtesy to these two guys? Legitimately not one of the Pirates groups Cole performed on had been ever this unhealthy, Judge may’ve left within the offseason however was lied to (“we’re not done yet”), and it’s solely going to worsen in New York.

Jay Jaffe: Oh please. Star energy sells tickets, and what the Yankees have going for them — although they haven’t wielded that benefit to its full extent — is the flexibility to run large payrolls. Those two gamers signed to be Yankees and aren’t going anyplace anytime quickly.

MT_LAD_FAN: Any likelihood Dodgers signal Ohtani and produce again Kershaw and Urias? They’ll want darn close to a full rotation with Buehler, May, Gonsolin all recovering from damage and Miller, Sheehan, Pepiot and Stone all nonetheless breaking into the bigs.

Jay Jaffe: It’s robust to think about that they will do all three; I might assume that in the event that they handle to signal Ohtani, it could means letting Urías stroll. But you’re proper in that even with two of these guys within the fold, they might want to flesh out that rotation with some innings guys; my guess is that they keep Lynn, both by choosing up his  $18 million possibility or by transforming it.

Zach: Given the present offensive setting, isn’t Julio Rodriguez’s current 17 hits in 4 video games stretch much more spectacular than simply being one of the best such stretch in MLB historical past?

Jay Jaffe: Speaking of previous articles, whereas I used to be in Los Angeles and San Diego final week, I wrote about Fernando Valenzuela’s #34 being retired, a trigger I advocated for for over a decade. So cool to witness this one in particular person:

Sanford: Francisco Lindor is fairly good at baseball, huh?

Jay Jaffe: Indeed. He’s put collectively a season similar to final 12 months’s one, which was MVP-caliber. Of the Mets’ multitude of issues, he’s not one among them

KC Pain: Which crew within the AL Central has one of the best likelihood of being a dominant crew in 5 years?

Jay Jaffe: Honestly I don’t see any of them having an opportunity at that. Cleveland has one of the best system (ninth in our rankings https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings) however doesn’t have any high-end prospects (60 FV or larger) within the pipeline, and as they’ve demonstrated amply through the years, they don’t spend cash.

Porcho Villa: Do you assume Torkelson’s current surge portends a real breakout, or is it simply one other scorching streak? Great across-the-board high quality of contact metrics however drilling down a bit extra it appears that he’s slaughtering fastballs however nonetheless struggling to hit   (/hard-hit) the whole lot else.

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t had an opportunity to look very carefully at him recently, and also you’re proper, he’s scuffling in opposition to most secondaries (curveballs an exception), however jeez, a 23-year-old with a 14.6% barrel price definitely seems to be promising

Smiling Politely: FYI, on the primary website, it says 8/8/23 Jaffe chat (although in any other case, it really works)

Jay Jaffe: Whoops, sorry about that. Rushed residence from some actual property to get this chat collectively in brief order and I simply cut-and-pasted from the final one with out catching that.

Jay Jaffe: It’s mounted on the file however the residence web page hasn’t up to date but.

Jay Jaffe: (And sure, the Jaffe-Span clan is seeking to transfer elsewhere in Brooklyn. Nothing imminent but however we preferred this one!)

Jaf Jayee: If you needed to vote in the present day, who’s your NL MVP and why is it Mookie?

Jay Jaffe: Mookie has been on hearth recently and has taken over the MLB leads in each fWAR and bWAR. Without wanting extra carefully into secondary stuff I’d nonetheless most likely lean Acuña — the base-stealing stuff provides some further pleasure, and he was so good so early — however I don’t assume he’s an computerized anymore.

Sammy So-so: Would you progress Oneil Cruz from the tallstop place and make him a nook outfielder beginning subsequent season? Seems like it could be far much less stress on him in a number of methods. Thanks, Jay.

Jay Jaffe: I feel a place change is a protracted -term eventuality however it’s nonetheless price seeing whether or not he can deal with a full season at shortstop now. It’s not like a pennant relies upon upon it

Smiling Politely: Sometime this week (presumably), I’ll grow to be a primary time dad! I do know you’ve received a younger one, and whereas I’m certain the Jaffe/Span family is, itself, an introduction to baseball, any recommendation about ensuring it’s enjoyable and one thing they get pleasure from (I don’t wanna be *that* dad or mum)?

Jay Jaffe: Congratulations! I’ve discovered {that a} tender contact is finest. Show them baseball in its many kinds — main league, minor league, Little League, on TV, in particular person, books, movies, balls, gloves, and MASCOTS — and see if it captures their consideration; don’t power it upon them.

Jay Jaffe: For us, now we have a number of baseball memorabilia and books mendacity round, and we kind of see what our daughter engages with

Jay Jaffe: clarify the principles (briefly and easily, not simple) if she watches a recreation with us, inform her about one of the best gamers and the nice and unhealthy guys

Jay Jaffe: Our daughter may be very labored up in regards to the Astros dishonest, since she started to know a little bit of baseball whereas my spouse was enhancing the stuff at The Athletic and since one among her tee-ball groups was nonetheless named the Astros as a result of it was coached by a Texan

Mike: Joey Gallo nonetheless has a job. MAT is among the many least worthwhile CF within the recreation. Are the Twins going to squander this playoff likelihood out of concern of attempting youthful gamers instead of these two?

Jay Jaffe: Hey, anyone has to lose that division! Taylor (1.4 WAR) has truly been round a league-average participant along with his protection, which as a complete for the crew has been subpar

Jay Jaffe: Gallo’s decline from Gold Glove winner to slightly-below-average defender, OTOH, has diminished him to a anyone of very restricted utility. I dunno, man, it’s only a bummer to look at

Yoshida’s Island: How many star gamers had their profession reduce means brief by authorized points earlier than the previous few years? Felipe Vasquez, Bauer, now probably Franco, however I really feel like this wasn’t a factor earlier than the final decade.

Jay Jaffe: you’re proper that it’s a bizarre constellation of them, however we did see a bunch of careers within the ’80s and ’90s derailed by the authorized facet of their drug points and extra just lately, how about Ugueth Urbina doing time for tried homicide?

Steve: Jay, How far forward do they schedule the venue for all star video games? Any thought when Camden Yards will get one other flip?

Jay Jaffe: Right now they’ve 2024 and ’26 scheduled however not ’25. https://www.mlb.com/all-star/future-locations. OPACY might be due however clearly John Angelos has to get his **** collectively if that’s going to occur. My guess is that after he does, the O’s get a recreation there within the close to future

Hank: Will the Rangers maintain on within the West? Now two groups proper on their heels, with the notably scorching Mariners and always-dangerous Astros? Mariners turned the AL playoff image extra-interesting actual fast up to now couple weeks.

Jay Jaffe: It’s instantly a number of enjoyable, proper? I nonetheless assume the Rangers maintain on, although their bullpen strikes me as susceptible

Slava Ukraini: Cashman is a HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I feel so, sure. It’s no small feat to stay in that exact job for that lengthy with that a lot success. Even given the cash benefit, successful is hardly computerized.

Mt Elden: Damian Lillard routinely received criticized by nationwide media sorts for “not wanting to win badly enough” as a result of he was content material to play out his contract in Portland. Why doesn’t Mike Trout obtain the identical remedy from the media contemplating the dude spends extra time enjoying golf and watching the Eagles each October than he does enjoying significant baseball video games?

Jay Jaffe: I feel all of it relies upon what sort of media you’re speaking about. Talk radio assholes dwell and die by these items. Print media a lot much less so. past that, one basketball participant can have an even bigger influence on his crew’s destiny than one baseball participant, although I don’t assume Lillard is kind of Trout-level.

Vlad’s Dad: I requested the identical of Ben, however what odds would you placed on a Pete Alonso HOF profession? He’s off to an important begin regardless of the late begin…

Jay Jaffe: Low. He’s had one season of 5.0 bWAR or higher, and it was his rookie 12 months. Great energy, clearly, however not an important all-around hitter; he’s had two seasons with a wRC+ within the 140s, none increased than 144. 17.2 profession bWAR nearing the top of his fifth season. Dan Szymborski’s offseason ZiPS spreadsheet has him ending with a JAWS within the low 30s.

Evan: Any ideas on the Michael Busch name up?

Jay Jaffe: With J.D. Martinez out, he can play his finest defensive place, DH.

Stevie: Is there any upside to Ohtani pitching once more this 12 months?

Jay Jaffe: Yes. Because he’s f’ing good at it, in the midst of maybe the best season ever, and we need to be entertained!

Zach: Is it time to begin speaking about Cal Raleigh as the most effective catchers in baseball? Sure, he one way or the other may need been omitted from even the deep honorable point out part of the Trade Value sequence (tsk tsk, Ben), however he’s closing in on a second straight 4+ WAR season and is fourth amongst all catchers in WAR because the begin of 2022.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, appears truthful to me. 2022-23, he’s 4th in fWAR amongst catchers at 7.6, with much less enjoying time and extra defensive worth than anybody else within the prime 5.

Jay Jaffe: Any day I get to reference Wile E. Coyote and Leo Tolstoy in the identical piece is an effective one

KC Pain: Thoughts on a rookie Cy Young and naming if after Valenzuela?

Jay Jaffe: Hmm, it’s a pleasant little thought. Hardly important however sort of cool

salt water jaffe: does jaws account for various calculations of struggle from completely different shops/websites/and so on?

Jay Jaffe: No. I persist with bWAR as a result of I discover it extra helpful for historic pitching than fWAR. But in any full evaluation, I do need to eyeball fWAR and the a number of fielding metrics to see if there’s something it’s telling us that’s notably completely different from what bWAR is telling us.

Sirras: Good luck with the home searching! The Brooklyn market is hard nowadays!

Jay Jaffe: Thanks. It’s an actual problem given all the numerous sides now we have to think about

mac: Did the Rizzo concussion story drop out of the information cycle faster than you thought it could? Borderline medical malpractice and no replace about anybody being held accountable or going through any penalties

Jay Jaffe: I feel it received a good bit of play and will resonate behind the scenes, extra as a cautionary story and driver of further measures than as one thing the place people are going to be singled out for punishment or one thing. Part of the difficulty is that Rizzo’s personal phrases recommend he didn’t actually make the connection between his preliminary collision and his more moderen struggles, so it’s not as if his pleas for assist had been going ignored. MLB (and different sports) has to assist gamers study to acknowledge the indicators that they might be having points so as to advance on this space.

Ben Bates: Is Soto’s ceiling decrease than we thought/is he at all times going to be a streaky, lowish common hitter? Or is he nonetheless creating?

Jay Jaffe: The difficulty isn’t his ceiling on the offensive facet however fairly his declining protection. I ponder if he’s not plugged in sufficient when he’s on the market in left discipline, stewing about his final plate look

salt water jaffe: does the exclusion of bonds, clemens, and different equally statistically certified gamers for the corridor of fame have any impact on the jaws mannequin? different fashions?

Jay Jaffe: Bonds ,Clemens, and A-Rod would increase the JAWS requirements by a noticeable few decimal factors in the event that they had been enshrined. You’d scarcely discover if a Manny, Sammy, Mac, or Sheffield   had been elected as they’re a lot nearer to the usual

Jeb: I cherished your article in regards to the Yankees and agreed with the factors you made. On the opposite hand, I really feel just like the press, normally, (and followers!) have actually piled onto the Yankees to the purpose the place they’re underestimating them in 2024. This 12 months is unhealthy, unequivocally, and regardless of being a fan, I too, have questioned the entrance workplace. On the opposite hand, there are many inexperienced shoots for subsequent 12 months – prime Cole and Judge is an effective starter equipment, for instance. The farm has some fascinating prospects, even when it isn’t prime tier. And whereas hitter improvement on the MLB degree leaves a lot to be desired, pitcher improvement has been fairly encouraging. That may not be a world sequence contender, however it could possibly be a playoff contender, on paper. What do you consider the 2024 Yankees?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks. I feel they need to make some vital enhancements of their processes behind the scenes — there’s been some stuff on the market in regards to the lack of accountability of their analytics division, for one factor — and it’s most likely time to chop bait on each Stanton and LeMahieu, becuase they’re simply not productive anymore; they’ve netted 0.2 WAR between them.

YorDaddy: Odds on Altuve attending to 3000 hits?

Jay Jaffe: From speaking to Dan I feel it’s one thing within the 30% vary. Freddie Freeman is the almost certainly lively man to get there however even he’s not 50/50.

Pat: what’s your finest (lowest) Immaculate Grid rating? My lowest is 105. All these previous baseball card days repay .Goal is to interrupt 100 sometime. I feel my most obscure reply was Will McEaney a 70’s reliever who pitched for Cincinnati & Montreal (Washngton Nationals).

Jay Jaffe: My lowest is round 20. I’m typically about 75 or much less after I full them. I don’t hassle enjoying them out if I assume one mistaken.

Jay Jaffe: But it’s a number of enjoyable and in all places I’ve gone over the previous month — from the cool stuff behind the scenes in Cooperstown to the Dodger Stadium dugout — individuals are speaking about it.

wADHD: In your opinion, who has had one of the best rookie season ever as a hitter? Ichiro?

Bob: Where would Joe Morgan rank among the many finest second basemen of all time?

Jay Jaffe: He’s 4th in JAWS and tops amongst post-Integration 2B, behind solely Hornsby, Collins, and Lajoie, all of whom had their finest days almost or over a century in the past.

Lamonte Wade Jr’s tenth place MVP vote: Do you assume groups might be prepared to supply Ha-Seong Kim an enormous contract in free company in a few years? He is younger and has changed into the most effective center infielders within the recreation, however his worth is definitely centered across the stellar protection.

Jay Jaffe: He’s not THAT younger (27), but when he retains up the offense he’s gonna get an enormous payday.

DJ Tofu: What’s mistaken with the Giants’ offense? Any hypotheses on why the entire group collectively declined a lot? How do they examine to different historic offense collapses?

Jay Jaffe: As famous in in the present day’s piece, a complete lot of it’s accidents, notably within the outfield. They’ve needed to play a bunch of prospects who final 12 months had been in some degree of A-ball, and lots of of these guys have been overwhelmed. While they can cobble collectively lineups to get a left/proper platoon benefit, they’re not capable of match up as nicely in different methods and have fewer PA being taken by MLB-caliber hitters

AL Central Casting: If Bryon Buxton is finished as a middle fielder, and even as an outfielder, what do the Twins do with him? He’s not such an important bat that he can DH full time, proper? Some followers are calling for them to attempt him at 1B, which appears sort of ridiculous to me, however I can’t put my finger on why.

Jay Jaffe: They signed him to that extension with the assumption that he would have sufficient worth as a hitter to face up to not being a full-time middle fielder. The drawback is that he hasn’t hit. It appears like they’re going to present him some work in middle now that he’s “built up” https://theathletic.com/4789532/2023/08/19/twins-byron-buxton-center-f…

Mr. Burrito: As of in the present day, I can consider not less than 13 sure-fire (or very, very near sure-fire) HOFers at the moment within the bigs… Votto, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Betts, Otahni, Trout, Miggy, Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke, Harper, Altuve…. Is that loads?

Jay Jaffe: Not in any respect. Historically, the typical is about 1.5 HOFers per team-season, which might recommend ~45 future HOFers on the market.

Tony: The NL Central has 3 first rate however not nice groups, a crew that’s often first rate however not nice and the Pirates.  They even have 3 of the highest 5 farm techniques in baseball by most metrics.  Which crew is finest positioned for fulfillment over the following 5 years?

Jay Jaffe: I feel you could possibly make instances for everyone however the Pirates. The Cubs can spend and have one of the best farm system of the opposite 4, the Brewers have been profitable operating shoestring operations and at creating pitching, the Reds have a boatload of uncooked expertise, the Cardinals… nicely, traditionally they’ve been the powerhouse on this division although the cracks are clearly displaying now, and so I feel they wouldn’t be my first option to succeed right here.

John: How many present Phillies get HOF consideration in the event that they retired tomorrow? I’ve Harper, Turner and Schwarber.

Jay Jaffe: Harper, perhaps Turner if he can get again to his 2021-22 degree, perhaps Nola if he can evolve. Schwarber nah. He’s topped out at 3.2 bWAR and that’s his solely time above 3.0

Fletcher: Why is Joe Torre a 1B in JAWS? He performed probably the most innings at catcher and seven of his 8 prime seasons by bWAR had been primarily as a catcher (with the opposite at 3B). It doesn’t look like he accrued probably the most worth at 1B.

Jay Jaffe: tl;dr: Torre had a number of enjoying time at 1B even when he was a daily C, apparently sufficient in order that the fractional WAR from these seasons (primarily based on innings within the discipline) tilts the stability such that his whole WAR(1b+3b) > WAR(c). 

For requirements functions, it’s a moot level since he was elected as a supervisor.

Jay Jaffe: Ok people, i’ve reached my pitch depend right here though there are nonetheless some good questions within the queue. Thanks a lot for stopping by!