Jeff Hoffman Has Lastly Discovered a Residence

Remember when the Blue Jays and Rockies linked for a blockbuster deal that despatched Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto? That was eight years in the past right now, and that was additionally when Jeff Hoffman was a prime prospect. A 12 months earlier than that, the younger right-hander was so extremely touted that although information of a torn UCL surfaced weeks earlier than draft day, the Jays nonetheless took him ninth total. Sure sufficient, he rewarded them by touching 99 in his professional debut at High-A Dunedin the subsequent season and the Jays rewarded him by… buying and selling him to the Rockies two months later.

The state motto of Colorado is “Nil Sine Numine,” or “Nothing without Providence,” nevertheless it may as nicely be “Ubi Iuvenēs Iactūs Eunt Morior,” or (if my highschool Latin isn’t failing me), “Where Young Pitchers go to Die.” Perhaps it’s because of the inherent discouragement that comes from pitching on the moon, or the dearth of funding in participant improvement. Either manner, Hoffman’s tenure with the Rockies began innocently sufficient. He tossed 118.2 innings of 4.02 ERA, 4.13 FIP ball — with a 24.2% Ok charge besides — within the notoriously offense-heavy Pacific Coast League in simply his second professional season (2016), incomes him his first style of the majors. But as most pitchers arriving on different planets do, the right-hander struggled to the tune of a 4.88 ERA and 6.27 FIP in 31.1 innings unfold over eight appearances (six begins).

Over the subsequent 4 seasons, Hoffman cut up his time between Triple-A and the majors. He acquired prolonged appears within the large league rotation in 2017 and 2019, however he floundered each instances. Overall, he tossed 230.2 innings for Colorado’s large league membership with a 6.40 ERA and 5.58 FIP, and he didn’t even crack a 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. To make issues worse, after that stellar Triple-A debut in 2016, he pitched to a 5.87 ERA and 4.77 FIP in 243.2 innings within the minors (all however three frames on the highest degree) from 2017-19. But the strikeout potential was nonetheless there; he additionally Ok’ed 23.1% of the hitters he confronted within the minors throughout that point.

The rebuilding Reds had been the subsequent workforce to take a crack at unleashing that potential within the majors, however Hoffman was a distinct pitcher from the one who debuted in Dunedin. For starters, his velocity had grown inconsistent; he averaged 94.4 mph on the heater in his first prolonged look in 2017 earlier than that dropped to 92.7 in 2018 because of a shoulder pressure that delayed the beginning of his season. It didn’t absolutely bounce again the subsequent 12 months both, averaging 93.7. Perhaps the lone optimistic improvement from his time in Colorado was the introduction of a splitter; extra on that later.

But when it comes to velocity, it took a transfer to the bullpen in 2020 to carry all of it the way in which again to 94.4 The Reds had been most likely curious if it could stay elevated given a starter’s workload. But one other main change from the Hoffman of yore was that his shoulder was now a vulnerability; it gave out once more after 10 begins of 4.61 ERA, 4.66 FIP ball to start the 2021 season. He made only one extra begin after returning, a four-inning, five-run clunker, earlier than the Reds determined to tug the plug on the Hoffman-as-a-starter experiment.

That could have been the perfect factor to presumably occur. After posting a meager 4.3% Ok-BB charge by way of 11 begins, Hoffman improved that mark to twenty.2% by way of 28 innings out of the ‘pen the rest of the season. Perhaps even more promising, his fastball velocity spiked, flirting with 97 mph by year’s finish. Yet, it dropped again to 94.2 the subsequent season — and his Ok-BB charge dropped to 11.2% — although he pitched nearly completely in reduction, because of some forearm and elbow points that prompted Cincinnati to non-tender him within the offseason.

The Phillies determined to take a flier on the right-hander, who had been so near placing all of it collectively, inking him to a minor league deal. Sure sufficient, that’s when all the pieces clicked. With a wholesome elbow, a brand new power routine, and a brief reduction position out of the gate, Hoffman struck out 16 of the 39 Triple-A hitters he confronted earlier than receiving a call-up. Better but, he averaged 96.9 mph on the heater within the minors, and he’s been at 97.1 throughout 26.2 main league frames. The pitch that’s benefitted essentially the most from the elevated velo? His splitter.

Hoffman’s fastball previous to this 12 months reads like a roadmap of his profession, that of the one-time prospect 4 completely different orgs have left their mark on: greater velocity one season, a dip the subsequent, and eventually a plateau. More run one 12 months, extra carry the subsequent, settling someplace in between. Even this 12 months, the pitch’s run worth has merely been “less negative.” I’m not satisfied that is its greatest model, and he’s throwing it much less usually than ever. Meanwhile, the slider has saved Hoffman runs in every of the final three seasons, nevertheless it’s additionally spanned three completely different shapes. Plus, it value him in every of his first three professional seasons earlier than he mainly scrapped it from 2019-20. Yet, every iteration of his splitter has been higher than the final, and I believe that it’s the pitch that greatest displays how a lot Hoffman has realized at every step of the way in which.

The following is a graph (courtesy of Brooks Baseball, which makes use of Pitch Info — all the pieces else on this piece is per Statcast) of horizontal vs. vertical motion for all of Hoffman’s pitches, with every dot representing one pitch’s profile for a single season. I’ve identified this season’s pitches (oh yeah, Hoffman flirted with a curveball and a changeup early on too):

The slider has had extra drop and extra horizontal motion in some earlier seasons whereas the fastball has had extra carry and the identical quantity of run. The velocity helps these shapes play up, however once more, that doesn’t imply they’re the perfect shapes. Yet, Hoffman’s splitter has added extra run and been more practical annually, making it clearer what form works greatest for the pitch. Even going from 2020 to 2021, when the cut up sacrificed a substantial quantity of drop for a bit extra run (and added solely about half a tick in velocity), it improved by run worth. Now, at a better velocity than ever, it has extra run than ever too. Observe it in all its glory right here:

What’s all that velocity and run amounted to? A 144 Stuff+ and a 20.8% swinging-strike charge. The slider, with an 18.2% swinging strike charge, and the fastball, with its improved velocity, have pushed their manner into the 120s themselves. That’s resulted in a 129 total Stuff+ mark, tied for fifteenth among the many 452 pitchers with at the least 20 innings this 12 months. In different phrases: Hoffman is nasty.

The better part is that he is aware of it and he’s utilizing that information to additional enhance his recreation. In an interview with The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey in May, Hoffman said: “My stuff hasn’t been this good since I left college.” As a outcome, he’s trusting it much more, together with his highest Zone% since 2020. After seeing so many alternative variations of himself over time, after all he’d be capable to acknowledge the perfect iteration. I hope this text helps the remainder of us acknowledge and admire it as nicely.