Joey Ortiz Is Succeeding Surprisingly

This article isn’t actually about Joey Ortiz. Or, effectively, it’s, however it’s additionally about how numbers will idiot you. Let’s begin with just a few numbers, then. Ortiz is strolling 12.9% of the time up to now this yr, way over common and way over he ever did within the excessive minors. He’s chasing pitches outdoors of the strike zone solely 24% of the time, an enormous change in method. Last yr within the minor leagues, that quantity stood at 34.5%. As a outcome, he’s swinging and lacking far much less typically. There’s the story of how Ortiz has improved.

Just one drawback: That story doesn’t maintain as much as nearer examination. Let’s break the strike zone up into 4 elements the best way Baseball Savant and the Statcast group do it. There’s the guts of the plate (coronary heart), the sides of the plate and the world simply off of it (shadow), the world the place good breaking pitches typically find yourself (chase), and the land of non-competitive pitches (waste). You’d anticipate Ortiz to swing much less continuously than common at chase and waste pitches. You’d be incorrect:

That’s baffling. For comparability’s sake, teammate Rhys Hoskins has comparable chase and zone swing charges, and he’s swinging at 17% of chase pitches and 1% of waste pitches. He’s additionally swinging extra continuously than Ortiz at pitches over the guts of the plate.

The motive this could occur is the shadow zone. Those are the hardest pitches to guage, and in mixture batters have a tricky time telling ball from strike in that space. They’re swinging at 59.9% of shadow zone pitches that cross the zone, versus 43.6% of the time at pitches that simply barely miss the rulebook zone. In different phrases, hitters are swinging much less, however they’re nonetheless getting fooled very often. That makes good intuitive sense. When a hitter takes a pitch a fraction of an inch off the plate, somebody is prone to say “I don’t know how he managed to take that” or “what a take!” It’s extremely tough to put off of these close to misses.

Only, it hasn’t been tough for Ortiz. He’s pretty unremarkable in terms of swinging at shadow pitches within the zone, which I’ll name “shadow-in” pitches; his 53% shadow-in swing charge is lower than league common however not by a staggering quantity. How about shadow-out? He’s all of the sudden Juan Soto, with a 25.2% swing charge. In truth, Soto swings 30.8% of the time at these pitches. Only three gamers in all of baseball – Andrew McCutchen, Jonathan India, and LaMonte Wade Jr. – are fishing much less continuously on these extraordinarily tough pitches.

That’s spectacular. But it goes from spectacular to complicated when you think about the remainder of what he’s doing. If a batter has the requisite abilities to separate the pitches that clip the zone from those that simply miss it, we’d anticipate them to mash pitches down the guts of the plate and ignore unhealthy ones. But Ortiz isn’t doing that in any respect. He has one of many lowest coronary heart of the plate swing charges in all of baseball, and he swings at pitches within the chase zone greater than common.

Is this some particular ability of Ortiz’s? I’m skeptical, not due to something particularly about his recreation, however as a result of it doesn’t make intuitive sense. Here’s one mind-set about it. Here’s a curated checklist of gamers with comparable gaps between their coronary heart swing charge and chase swing charge: Adley Rutschman, Paul Goldschmidt, CJ Abrams, Logan O’Hoppe, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryson Stott, Sal Frelick. I don’t consider these guys as having significantly sterling batting eyes; somewhat, I hardly assume twice about them in terms of plate self-discipline. Ortiz outstrips everybody round him in terms of discerning pitches within the shadow zone, although; the gamers on this cohort drop their swing charges by 13 share factors within the transition from shadow-in to shadow-out, and he’s at 27.8 share factors.

On the opposite aspect of the coin, contemplate the hitters who choose proper from incorrect on the margins of the zone in addition to Ortiz. This group consists of hitters like Francisco Lindor, Austin Riley, Masataka Yoshida, Fernando Tatis Jr., Steven Kwan, and Ian Happ. These guys know what they’re doing on the plate. But they swing at extra meatballs and get fooled into swinging at fewer chase pitches than Ortiz does by an enormous margin; they’ve a 52 share level hole in these two swing charges, versus 37 share factors for Ortiz.

This is a long-winded means of claiming that for those who’re searching for the talents which are going to make Ortiz a superb main league hitter, you have to look past his eye on the plate. Does he even have top-of-the-line eyes in baseball? Almost actually not. But he in all probability received’t swing at so few pitches over the guts of the plate going ahead both, as a result of he clearly has not less than a good sense of the zone; you don’t find yourself with numbers like his utterly by chance.

So is he top-of-the-line gamers in baseball in terms of telling balls from strikes, or merely common? Probably someplace within the center, however I feel he’ll proceed to earn robust walks at an above-average clip. See, a part of the explanation that his coronary heart swing charge is so unhealthy is that he lets pitchers put him in a gap to begin plate appearances. Ortiz takes first pitches extra continuously than the league as an entire; he additionally takes 1-0 and 0-1 pitches extra continuously than the league as an entire. Those pitches are disproportionately proper down the center of the plate.

The factor is, Ortiz doesn’t actually need to try this. That method makes extra sense for those who’re both a slap hitter who needs to work a stroll or are looking a pitch in a specific location. As greatest as I can inform, neither of those displays who Ortiz is as a hitter. He does most of his harm proper over the center of the plate, identical to you’d anticipate. He began hitting for extra energy in 2023, and that’s carried proper over into 2024.

Naturally, that energy isn’t really easy to grasp both. Ortiz swings the bat exhausting and the typical exit velocity of the highest half of his batted balls is within the prime third of the league. That’s fairly good, however nothing particular. He additionally mishits the ball quite a bit, which is how he finally ends up with beneath common exit velocity, candy spot charge, and squared up charge. In different phrases, he’s sacrificing some contact consistency to provide loud contact when he does join.

That’s paying off, as a result of he’s an outstanding contact hitter. Despite his aggressive hacks, he’s making contact on 92% of the in-zone pitches he swings at, an elite charge. Combine that together with his unconventional strike zone mastery, and you’ve got a really robust out. Can you get Ortiz to swing at unhealthy pitches? Most positively. Is he liable to some mishits? For certain. But these are small headwinds contemplating all of the issues Ortiz is doing proper on the plate.

Oh yeah, he’s an amazing defender, too. He’s largely performed third this yr, however can deal with second and shortstop as effectively. If it weren’t for Willy Adames, he’d in all probability be the Brewers’ on a regular basis shortstop, and I’d anticipate Ortiz to take over that function if Adames leaves in free company after this season. Put merely, Ortiz appears to be like like a future foundational participant in Milwaukee.

He doesn’t must sustain his present tempo on offense for that to be the case, which is an efficient factor. I don’t assume he’ll preserve both his outrageous energy on contact outcomes or his sterling strikeout-to-walk ratio. If I needed to guess, I’d put him down for an offensive line round 10% higher than common the remainder of the best way, somewhat worse than the anticipated numbers he’s produced up to now in 2024 and far worse than his precise manufacturing.

That’s not a disappointment, although. If you went again in time and advised final yr’s Brewers followers that the group would commerce Corbin Burnes, they’d be upset. If you advised them that the return could be a superb defensive infielder who hits for energy and will get on base, they’d be excited. If you advised them that infielder could be round by 2029, they’d be ecstatic. And for those who advised them they’d get one other prime prospect (left-hander DL Hall) within the cut price, they in all probability wouldn’t imagine you. The Brewers and Orioles have each come out of the Burnes commerce forward, and Ortiz’s spectacular efficiency is a big motive why.