Jordan Walker Tries To Get Off the Floor

Say this for Jordan Walker: He is aware of the way to put collectively a hitting streak. The 21-year-old rookie has solely performed in 39 main league video games, and in that temporary period of time has recorded two streaks — a career-opening 12-gamer and now a 15-gamer — that collectively account for greater than two-thirds of that run. His bat has immediately change into a vivid spot in an in any other case irritating season for the Cardinals.

Indeed, the reigning NL Central champions stay a scorching mess regardless of profitable 5 of their final seven video games and salvaging a break up within the London Series in opposition to the Cubs after being spanked 9–1 within the opener. The Cardinals have nonetheless been worse in June (7–13) than May (15–13), producing their lowest month-to-month fee of scoring runs (4.05 per sport) together with their highest fee of runs allowed (4.88 per sport), and falling from 5 video games out of first place to eight.5 again. That’s hardly been Walker’s fault, although.

Recall that Walker, who ranked twelfth on our 2023 Top 100 Prospects checklist, hit his approach onto the roster in spring coaching, bypassing Triple-A Memphis, and opened the season because the common proper fielder, a scenario that was considerably stunning given the staff’s obvious outfield depth. The transfer assured that Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Lars Nootbaar would all get much less enjoying time than anticipated — not the worst factor on the earth given the subpar performances of the primary two final yr. The presence of fellow rookie Alec Burleson solely added to the crunch. Yet Walker turned heads by gathering hits in every of his first 12 video games, batting .319/.360/.489.

Once the hitting streak ended, nevertheless, Walker didn’t get a really lengthy leash because the league adjusted. He went simply 5-for-26 over his subsequent eight video games, 4 of which featured a number of strikeouts. Meanwhile, his poor jumps and unhealthy throwing selections served to remind that he was nonetheless a piece in progress on protection as properly; a transformed third baseman, he had simply 51 earlier skilled video games within the outfield, together with in final yr’s Arizona Fall League. Still, it felt odd when, on April 26, the Cardinals optioned him to Memphis, with membership president John Mozeliak deciding that the outfield of the 9–15 staff was immediately too crowded. “[G]uys just aren’t getting into rhythm, [with their] expected playing time,” he instructed reporters, including that he and supervisor Oli Marmol envisioned much less enjoying time for the rookie within the close to future and figured it made little sense for him to idle on the bench. More comprehensible was the staff’s want for Walker to work on his strategy and hit the ball within the air extra usually to reap the benefits of his 70-grade uncooked energy.

So Walker went right down to Memphis, the place he didn’t precisely put up spectacular numbers total (.239/.348/.398, 90 wRC+), although he did hit the ball within the air extra usually and strike out much less. Most notably, he heated up after a gradual begin, batting .312/.403/.541 in 72 PA from May 14 to 31. Meanwhile, he missed fairly a clown present in St. Louis, the place Mozeliak and Marmol immediately determined that Willson Contreras, the staff’s high offseason signing, was by some means now not match to be the common catcher however would change into an outfielder, then rapidly realized that plan was each bit as silly because it sounded when it comes to the staff’s options at catcher and the prevailing crowd within the outfield.

While toiling at Memphis, Walker nonetheless triggered a stir in St. Louis in late May when he instructed a TV reporter, “There’s no point if I try to hit the ball in the air if I’m not hitting the ball at all.”

Jordan Walker was despatched right down to Memphis to get him to hit the ball within the air extra.

That bought to his head and led to struggles.

Now, the #1 prospect in baseball is getting again to himself.

“There’s no point if I try to hit the ball in the air if I’m not hitting the ball at all.” pic.twitter.com/bEwqoyomYJ

— Matt Infield (@Matt_Infield) May 29, 2023

As with a lot in life, the quote makes extra sense and is much less inflammatory in context:

“I used to be instructed to begin hitting the ball within the air and that type of bought to me slightly bit, about attempting to power the ball within the air slightly bit an excessive amount of. I pressured myself to do issues that I often don’t do,

“Right now, I’m not too apprehensive about getting the ball within the air extra and I’m beginning to drive the ball quite a bit higher now. I feel it’s simply being extra relaxed and never fascinated by it on the plate.

“There’s no point if I’m trying to hit the ball in the air if I’m not hitting the ball at all. I might as well hit the ball hard. If it’s on the ground, it’s on the ground. Trying to find the hole. Maybe drive a run in. I feel like as I go through the season, it’s going to get more in the air just like I did last year. So I just have to trust myself and trust how my swing has been in the past three years within the organization. That’s just what I have faith in.”

It’s not as if Walker wasn’t adjusting his mechanics, nevertheless. As the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Daniel Guerrero summarized, “Some of [the adjustment] includes avoiding overloading and over-rotating, which created some issues with seeing the ball. Recently, Walker has placed a focus on trying to make contact with pitches when he’s ‘more out front’ on his swing, which he said leads to more loft.”

The video was from May 29; the Cardinals recalled Walker 4 simply days later after putting Nootbaar on the injured checklist for the second time this season, this time resulting from a decrease again contusion (he missed 10 days in early April after jamming his left thumb whereas sliding). Walker arrived simply because the staff started a five-game shedding streak, gathering simply two hits within the first 4 video games. A solo homer off the Rangers’ Dane Dunning, in one more loss, kicked off his newest hitting streak, throughout which he’s batted a scorching .385/.458/.673 with 4 homers in 52 PA. For kicks, the Cardinals squeezed a six-game shedding streak into Walker’s tear, however he helped them snap it by homering on back-to-back nights in opposition to the Mets on June 17–18.

So how does Walker 2.0 stack up in comparison with his predecessor? He’s definitely extra productive, with a lot improved plate self-discipline:

Where Walker had 20 strikeouts and simply three walks earlier than being despatched down, he’s had 15 strikeouts and eight walks since returning. Not proven within the desk above is the extent to which pitchers have gotten skittish, throwing him fewer strikes. Where 45.7% of the pitches he confronted earlier than demotion had been within the strike zone, simply 35.7% of them have been within the zone since he returned, a decrease fee than even the majors’ certified chief, Yordan Alvarez (36.4%)

A more in-depth look exhibits that Walker is seeing extra four-seam fastballs since returning than earlier than (26.6% versus 20.8%), and fewer sliders (22% to 29%); the combination has in any other case not modified appreciably. He’s doing important harm in opposition to each choices, batting .296 and slugging .630 in opposition to the four-seamers and .378/.556 in opposition to the sliders, and because the demotion he’s minimize his whiff fee on the latter from 39.1% to 33.3%. The solely pitch he’s actually scuffled in opposition to is curves (.154 AVG/.154 SLG), however he’s seen them simply 7.7% of the time and is simply whiffing on 13.6% of his swings at them; his .289 xBA and .423 xSLG in opposition to the curve recommend he’s due for some constructive regression.

In addition to exhibiting higher plate self-discipline, Walker is making higher contact, although maybe not precisely in the way in which the Cardinals envisioned:

Earthworms, beware! Walker has gone from hitting the ball onerous however totally on the bottom… to hitting the ball even tougher, however nonetheless totally on the bottom. His common exit velocity has elevated by over 5 miles per hour, and his barrel and hard-hit charges have improved as properly. Even so, his June barrel fee would solely place within the 61st percentile amongst qualifiers. He’s pulling the ball with higher frequency however nonetheless not elevating a lot; his common launch angle has barely budged, his June groundball fee continues to be larger than the very best qualifier (Masataka Yoshida at 55.9%), and likewise for his groundball/fly ball ratio (Christian Yelich at 2.06).

That’s lower than preferrred, however Walker is hitting the ball so rattling onerous that even his anticipated stats present important enchancment:

Walker has added 153 factors of xSLG and 100 factors of xwOBA in his return. As you’ll notice, there’s one column within the desk which may be unfamiliar. Best Speed refers to a batter’s common exit velocity for the highest 50% of his hardest-hit balls, a metric that MLB Advanced Media’s Tom Tango likes to remind the general public is extra helpful than the easier-to-find common EV as a result of it filters out the noise — the entire unhealthy contact that weighs down the averages with out telling us a lot. Unfortunately Baseball Savant doesn’t make it simple to search out this; it’s not on the Statcast participant playing cards, and it’s not on our pages both, however Tango helpfully put collectively a customized desk for this. The column “Best Speed” is that common, and for the large hitters, it’s above 100 mph. Lower the qualifying threshold to 100 plate appearances and voila! Walker ranks fourth:

Even if he has the bottom common launch angle and barrel fee of the group, to not point out the fourth-lowest xwOBA, Walker is in good firm. It’s fairly a distinction from his tied-for-Twenty second rating in common exit velo utilizing the identical 100-PA threshold.

All instructed, Walker is hitting a strong .302/.366/.475, and his 135 wRC+ ranks second on the staff, 4 factors behind chief Paul Goldschmidt and 18 above third-ranked Nolan Gorman. That mentioned, his defensive metrics are jaw-droppingly dreadful: -10 DRS, -6 RAA, -5.0 UZR, all in simply 303.1 innings within the subject (213.1 in proper subject, 90 in left subject), although that’s nonetheless a small pattern and price taking with a grain of salt. Taken at face worth, they offset his offense to the purpose that Walker has -0.1 fWAR and -0.4 bWAR. He’s no less than trending in the fitting course, with 0.2 fWAR this month in comparison with -0.3 earlier than.

Even so, that equates to only a DH-caliber influence over the course of the season, and the Cardinals, along with their myriad different flaws, have a logjam at DH because of the presence of Gorman (26 begins there), their ambivalence about Contreras’ protection (17, together with 9 in a row throughout his exile from the instruments of ignorance), and their want to relaxation Goldschmidt (9) and Nolan Arenado (seven). As with the 21-year-old Walker, the Cardinals themselves are an actual work in progress, although proper now I really feel a lot better in regards to the former’s prognosis than the latter.