Jose Altuve, or an Impostor Who Seems Simply Like Him, Is Wrecking Home

It shouldn’t be terribly shocking that Jose Altuve is at it once more. The man is operating a wRC+ of 160 or higher for the third time in his profession; in a type of seasons, 2017, he was voted AL MVP. The different was simply final 12 months. Rumors of his demise, which circulated all through a disastrous 2020 season, have lengthy since subsided.

And not a second too quickly, I’d add. The Astros, held in examine by the Rangers a lot of the season, are again on their heels after a three-game sweep by the hands of division rival Seattle over the weekend. The pitching workers has taken a step again from its unhittable late-2022 apotheosis. Primary offseason acquisition José Abreu was hitting like a utility infielder earlier than a again damage put him on the shelf. Jeremy Peña’s energy stroke has abandoned him, as has Cristian Javier’s distinctive model of fastball-heavy trickeration.

Houston appears to be like just a little wobbly, for the primary time since at the very least 2020; setting apart that season’s distinctive circumstances (and the Astros made it to Game 7 of the ALCS anyway), the crew has not wobbled this a lot since 2016. But Altuve, hitting .327/.420/.529 since his return from a damaged thumb suffered through the World Baseball Classic, has held issues collectively.

If that actually is Jose Altuve.

What can we find out about Jose Altuve? I’ll not have learn Marcus Aurelius, however I’ve seen The Silence of the Lambs sufficient occasions to find out about first rules. What is Altuve’s nature? He’s brief. (“No! That is incidental!”) He’s a contact hitter — a contact hitter of such high quality that we’d be speaking about him having the most effective hit instruments of the twenty first century, had Ichiro Suzuki not come alongside and brought all of the enjoyable out of that dialog.

Altuve got here into the league a gifted however undisciplined hitter, evolving his method over time to fret much less about hitting the ball for its personal sake and extra about hitting the ball arduous when that was a risk.

The Statcast period doesn’t actually do that transformation justice, since Altuve actually took the leap in 2016, however as he realized to entry his energy, pitchers began to concern him and threw him fewer pitches within the zone.

So we finally bought used to an Altuve who walks 8–9% of the time. But by way of 54 video games this season, he’s strolling 13.9% of the time. The younger Altuve’s profligacy locations him in a singular place now. There are 14 lively gamers to have walked 2.5% of the time or much less in a season of 200 plate appearances or extra, and 74 who’ve posted a stroll fee of 13.5% or extra in a season of equal size. Altuve is the one one who’s finished each.

Some oddities stay. Among place gamers with at the very least 200 PA this 12 months, Altuve is within the 14th percentile for in-zone swing fee and the 58th percentile on swing fee outdoors the strike zone. So he’ll nonetheless chase just a little, however the outcomes are elite wherever the ball involves him. Here’s his wOBA, damaged down by place relating to each the strike zone and Baseball Savant’s assault zones:

Using that 200-plate look threshold, Altuve is tied for fourth within the league in wRC+ and 18th in slugging proportion. It’s been some time since he was a scrappy spray-hitting punch-and-run man, however by no means earlier than has he been an elite on-base man due to his selectivity and stroll fee. This isn’t Altuve; that is Mookie Betts. It’s the center floor between pre- and post-elbow damage Bryce Harper. It’s Lars Nootbaar, plus 50 factors of batting common. This feels just like the form of factor Joey Votto would do as a bit.

But stroll fee however, this season may be very Altuve in a single key respect. After his terrible 2020 marketing campaign, Altuve — beforehand a groundball-heavy hitter his complete profession — belatedly joined the swing aircraft revolution. Having beforehand finished his greatest work with a GB/FB ratio of round 1.4, he went about even in 2021 and ’22, and he made these fly balls rely, with the second- and third-highest HR/FB percentages of his profession to that time. In 2021, he matched his earlier profession excessive of 31 house runs and set each a brand new profession full-season low for batting common and a brand new profession excessive in ISO. The two-time AL stolen base champ’s abandonment of the operating sport continued, too, as he stole simply 5 luggage in 146 video games that 12 months.

This season, Altuve’s batted ball profile has returned to one thing approaching his profession norm:

It wouldn’t be fairly proper to say that Altuve is hitting the ball arduous, as a result of he’s by no means actually finished that. Baseball Savant’s anticipated stats are operating behind him hitting sirens and flashing emergency lights. His wOBA is 63 factors greater than his xwOBA this season, which isn’t any. 1 among the many 322 hitters with at the very least 200 plate appearances this 12 months. So by that normal, this appears to be like like a fluke, particularly contemplating that he’s performed solely a 3rd of a season up to now; a lot of the league is greater than three-quarters of the way in which finished.

But if Altuve’s means to overperform is xwOBA is a fluke, it’s a fluke that’s sustained the fats a part of a Hall of Fame profession. (At least statistically talking; I used to be relieved that the PED period logjam cleared earlier than I used to be up for a Hall of Fame vote, however I concern that Banging Scheme Hall of Fame discourse goes to make the Roger Clemens discourse appear like Mariano Rivera discourse.) Altuve has at all times excelled at conjuring hits from uncommon locations: his profession wOBA on grounders is ninth-best among the many 325 gamers who’ve hit 500 or extra groundballs since 2015. In that very same time, he has gotten extra out of his launch angle and exit velo than he has any proper to:

This is hilarious. (The all-time king of outperforming anticipated stats: Scooter Gennett, in case you had been curious.) So possibly I used to be too hasty once I doubted Altuve’s authenticity based mostly on stroll fee alone. He hasn’t been so himself since earlier than the pandemic; it’s simply been some time since we’d seen it.