José Ramírez Was Totally Completely different and Precisely the Similar in 2023

José Ramírez is the definition of a set-it-and-forget-it participant, and I imply that a minimum of a little bit bit actually. Neither we nor our associates over at Baseball Prospectus printed a single article that targeted on him throughout a 2023 season when, for the fourth time in a row, he completed within the high 10 within the AL MVP voting. He turned out to have a really fascinating season, and never simply because he was, as at all times, glorious.

In June of 2022, Ramírez injured the ulnar collateral ligament in his proper thumb. To the shock of the Cleveland teaching employees, he determined to play by means of important ache and postpone surgical procedure till the offseason. Despite seeing his energy drop off dramatically, he ended the season with a 141 wRC+ and 6.4 WAR. He lastly had the surgical procedure in November and got here into the 2023 season wholesome, however he bought off to a sluggish begin and completed with a 123 wRC+. It was his worst exhibiting since 2019, when a damaged hamate bone ended his season prematurely. (As an apart, for those who’re determined for for reassurance that Mike Trout will bounce again from his hamate harm, look no additional than Ramírez, who instantly returned to superstardom in 2020.)

The graph beneath spans three years so you may see Ramírez in his wholesome 2021 season, then how his energy trailed off after the harm in ‘22, then the form of his 2023 season.

At first blush, that is a straightforward story to inform. Hand surgical procedure tends to rob hitters of energy, and it took some time for all these tiny muscle tissues in Ramírez’s hand to get again to regular. That massive spike on the appropriate facet of the graph began rising on June 7, when he kicked off a nine-game hitting streak by going 2-for-4 with an RBI double in a win over the Red Sox. Here are his 2023 stats, utilizing that date as a dividing line:

Ramírez began hitting the ball a lot tougher. He hit 3 times as many residence runs in effectively beneath twice as many plate appearances. In reality, he ended the season with a 90-mph common exit velocity, the best of his profession. Those tiny little muscle tissues actually matter. But whereas it’s a real story, it’s not the entire story. Here are some extra stats utilizing that very same dividing line:

For the primary 60 video games of the season, Ramírez wasn’t hitting the ball as onerous however was additionally considerably unfortunate (although a few of it was as a result of his batted ball combine, which we’ll get to later). At the identical time, he was placing the ball in play extra typically. His stroll price was a bit decrease, and his strikeout price was greater than a bit decrease. To put these numbers in context, since 2016, Ramírez has run a ten.5% stroll price and a 12% strikeout price. Those first 60 video games had been the outlier.

What was he doing in another way? It’s not that he was chasing extra or making quite a bit much less contact. It’s that he was extra aggressive on pitches within the zone.

Once once more, the primary row is the outlier, and the second row is true consistent with Ramírez’s profession numbers. He ended the season with a swing price of 70.3% on pitches within the zone. That’s the best price of his profession, all due to these first 60 video games.

Swinging at extra pitches within the zone is often a very good factor, however look what occurs if we use Baseball Savant’s assault zones and break the strikes down into pitches over the guts of the plate and pitches within the shadow zone. The desk beneath is simply his swing price:

Now we’re getting someplace. Again, the desk above solely pertains to pitches within the strike zone; it doesn’t embrace pitches that had been within the shadow zone however exterior the zone. At the start of the season, regardless of not chasing extra, Ramírez didn’t actually distinguish between pitches over the guts of the plate and pitches on the sides of the strike zone. After June 7, his swing price on strikes within the shadow zone dropped again all the way down to and even beneath his profession price of 57.6%.

To illustrate the significance of that change, I’m going to point out you an unholy amalgam of two graphs from Pitcher List. I took Ramírez’s strike zone judgment graph, and on high of it, I crudely pasted his determination worth graph. The white line exhibits how typically Ramírez made the appropriate name for those who have a look at issues in black and white: swing at pitches more likely to be known as strikes, and lay off pitches more likely to be known as balls. The purple line exhibits extra nuance, modeling the run worth of a swing or tackle any given pitch, then crediting or debiting the hitter primarily based on every determination.

See the large hole between the white and purple traces firstly of the chart? Before his manufacturing took off, Ramírez was swinging at strikes and shedding balls, however he wasn’t essentially swinging at hittable pitches, particularly fastballs.

I discussed earlier that when Ramírez underperformed his wOBA throughout that early stretch, he may need been experiencing greater than dangerous luck. That’s as a result of his batted ball distribution modified drastically:

Ramírez hit tons of fly balls, and he additionally hit extra balls to middle subject, the place it takes extra energy to do injury. That’s not a recipe for fulfillment for those who’re doing so at a time if you’re hitting the ball extra weakly. He additionally elevated his popup price dramatically. Striking out much less doesn’t assist in any respect for those who’re simply changing these strikeouts with a special type of automated out.

That mentioned, there actually was some dangerous luck happening right here. This desk is his efficiency solely on strikes within the shadow zone:

Ramírez underperformed his xwOBA by almost 100 factors. It’s onerous to chalk all of that as much as batted ball distribution. On pitches over the guts of the plate, he was nonetheless hitting the ball a lot softer, however his precise and anticipated efficiency was roughly the identical:

There’s much more nuance at play than we’ve got time to dig into. For instance, there’s the truth that Ramírez is a switch-hitter. Here are two extra swing determination charts, with Ramírez as a lefty on the left and as a righty on the appropriate:

Throughout the season, these two traces appear to run counter to one another, with Ramírez making good choices from one facet and dangerous choices from the opposite facet. I don’t know the place to start untangling that one.

I’m afraid that’s the place I’ll have to depart you. There’s a chicken-and-egg dialog available right here. It’s potential that Ramírez adjusted his plate self-discipline as a result of hits weren’t falling in, due to doubts about his hand, as a result of he wasn’t hitting the ball as onerous, or due to another issue we will’t guess at. It’s additionally potential that that is simply the type of factor that occurs, and the harm is a handy place to assign the blame. There’s no actual method to know, and as quickly as Ramírez hit that sizzling stretch in early June, he went again to his normal, extra even handed method.

In the tip, until you’re digging into the underlying metrics, you’ll see solely one other classic José Ramírez season. By DRC+, which seems at underlying metrics and never simply outcomes, he was at 133, the third-best season of his whole profession. As it stands, there’s no purpose that we shouldn’t count on him to place up one other ho-hum, five-win season in 2024. Still, we should always in all probability pay a little bit extra consideration to it, simply in case.