Juan Soto, This is Not: Padres Purchase Barlow From Royals

AJ Preller couldn’t maintain it going ceaselessly. For years, he had his fingerprints on each main commerce and free company signing. He received Juan Soto! He received Josh Hader! He made a last-second cross at Aaron Judge earlier than signing Xander Bogaerts. He constructed up a stable farm system after which lovingly tore it aside for established main leaguers, and he did it so continuously that he appeared to be in on each final deal.

This deadline, Preller lastly rested. Earlier within the day, he engaged in some gentle veteran-snagging exercise, including Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi in trade for a prospect sampler platter. A bit later, he swapped Ryan Weathers for Garrett Cooper and Sean Reynolds, however there was no seismic transfer to observe. The Padres’ final involvement with the commerce deadline was one other modest swing. They acquired Scott Barlow from the Royals in trade for prospects Henry Williams and Jesus Rios.

I’ll stage with you: this one received’t transfer the needle a lot. Barlow is a reliever archetype, reliably unreliable because of devastating stuff and lackluster command. He had a 3.62 FIP final yr and checks in at 3.63 thus far this yr. Consistent such as you wouldn’t imagine! But he had a 2.18 ERA final season and has a ghastly 5.35 mark thus far this yr, so whoops.

That ERA may be attributed to a .340 BABIP and a teensie strand fee, however to be sincere, watching Barlow pitch doesn’t give me the vibe of a mid-3.00s ERA reliever. He’s been fairly hittable because of his lack of command. He’s usually thus far behind within the depend that he’s laying one in there. When he doesn’t do this, he’s usually lacking his goal and leaving the ball over the center anyway. His slider and curveball are each wonderful, and he’s going to get his justifiable share of strikeouts it doesn’t matter what, however he looks like a relentless implosion danger. Guys like him go from efficient to can’t-buy-a-strike sooner than you’d suppose generally.

That seems like an uninspiring commerce pickup, however take a look at it this manner: he’s most likely not worse than Brent Honeywell. Honeywell has pitched his manner down the bullpen hierarchy all yr. Tim Hill isn’t far behind him; he’s gone from lefty specialist to maybe-we-can-try-him-against-righties to simply unhealthy in pretty quick order. Tom Cosgrove is consuming away at Hill’s lefty specialist taking part in time already, which makes Hill’s roster spot considerably superfluous. With two relievers who look DFA-worthy, including Barlow will assist the Padres clear out the chaff along with hopefully offering extra wheat.

I believe the comparatively gentle return on Kansas City’s aspect says quite a bit about how the league views Barlow’s danger of wreck. Relievers with nearer stuff have been in scorching demand this commerce deadline. Barlow didn’t fetch that form of return. Williams is kind of a lottery ticket, a post-TJ restoration mission who clearly hasn’t recovered simply but. A 5.90 FIP, even within the Cal League, is just not what you wish to see. He’s additionally strolling a number of batters for somebody whose command is a promoting level, and he’s sitting 90-92 mph thus far this yr, nicely off his pre-surgery kind.

There are fascinating elements of Williams’ profile, little question. He has an exquisite curveball and a pleasant supply, so you may think about him honing his command and turning into a type of feel-over-stuff starters that each staff wants. The first yr after TJ may be tough; possibly there’s one other gear in him someplace. But uh… possibly it’s the cynic in me, however I can’t see the Royals being the staff to unlock that as-yet-unseen kind in him. They don’t have a historical past of getting probably the most out of their minor league pitchers, to place it mildly.

Rios, the second pitcher headed to Kansas City within the deal, is a 21-year-old pitching within the Dominican Summer League. Per Eric Longenhagen, he’s a broad-shouldered righty with a repeatable supply who throws a heavy sinker within the 92-94 mph vary. He enhances it with a changeup and a cutter, each of which stay within the higher 80s. That’s all I’ve for you, to be sincere. Guys that outdated don’t often pitch within the DSL, and he solely has 18 innings price of outcomes there anyway. The odds of him making a distinction within the main leagues are miniscule.

All issues thought of, I believe it is a stable commerce for the Padres, however one which’s extra of a small victory than a season-changer. They discovered themselves caught between reloading and including, solely 5 video games out of the playoffs and with the third-best run differential within the NL. That’s not teardown-worthy, however the staff actually needs to compete subsequent yr as nicely given its present building, so spending significant prospect capital on leases didn’t make a lot sense both. Barlow shall be round subsequent season and he didn’t price a lot, two factors in his favor.

If we take the truth that San Diego was going to make some transfer as a given, I believe this one reveals admirable moderation. You don’t must make waves at each alternative, it doesn’t matter what Preller’s former conduct would possibly point out. Sometimes it’s okay to tinker across the edges. If the Padres are adequate to make the playoffs, it received’t be due to this commerce; it’ll be due to all of the heavy lifting they did previously. This is merely a tiny complement at a low price.

On the Royals aspect of issues, they certainly remorse hanging on to Barlow for thus lengthy. He’s been a commerce goal for years now, they usually ended up dealing him for a return that may have felt gentle final yr. I nonetheless suppose they did the best factor by buying and selling him, and buying and selling him for speculative future worth as a substitute of no matter that Nicky Lopez commerce was. But make no mistake about it: issues should not good in Kansas City, they usually don’t determine to get good anytime quickly. The massive league staff is unhealthy, the farm system is twenty eighth out of 30, and it’s not like they’ve extra trades to make to replenish their minor league ranks.

None of that makes this Barlow commerce a failure. It doesn’t even have a lot to do with Barlow, the truth is. The level is that this: the Royals are in such a gap that it’s going to take far various reliever trades to dig them out of it. That doesn’t imply they shouldn’t make these trades, but it surely’s a useful actuality examine. When you’re delving this deep into the commerce deadline mine, nobody’s getting wealthy, and even dying making an attempt. They’re nonetheless obligatory strikes – simply, that is extra rearranging the deck chairs than turning the boat.