Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, and the Dodgers: An Inevitable Match

Every week in the past, town of Chicago seemed prefer it had a brand new growth trade: deadline leases. The Cubs and White Sox have a ton of gamers set to depart after 2023, and neither seemed like a playoff hopeful. The Cubs have performed nicely sufficient these days to get out of that realm and into the patrons column, however that’s okay, as a result of the White Sox have leaned into their position as sellers to compensate. After shifting Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López earlier within the week, they’re persevering with to dismantle their pitching employees. On Friday, they despatched Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers in alternate for 2 pitching prospects and outfielder Trayce Thompson.

I gained’t attempt to sugarcoat it: Lynn has been terrible this 12 months. His 6.47 ERA is the worst in baseball for qualifying starters, and whereas there’s some encouragement to be discovered underneath the hood, it’s nonetheless not plenty of encouragement. Also, that linked article was about how he couldn’t presumably maintain giving up homers at such an excessive charge, after which he gave up six in his subsequent three begins. Whoops.

Yes, that ERA is ugly. Yes, Lynn has seemed misplaced on the mound, lobbing pipe pictures down the center and strolling extra batters than regular anyway. But his physique of labor earlier than this 12 months suggests his season could be salvaged. The Dodgers know a factor or two about getting probably the most out of pitchers, and Lynn is lacking bats at a career-best charge even whereas he will get shelled. Our projection methods suppose he’ll pitch to a roughly 4.25 ERA the remainder of the season, however going to Dodger Stadium may even shade that decrease. (A countervailing concern is that Lynn hasn’t seemed snug with the pitch clock, and there’s no accounting for that in our fashions.)

I’m unsure that makes him one of many 5 finest starters on the Dodgers, however his sturdiness is a pleasant added enticement. Los Angeles is counting on a slew of rookies in the intervening time: Bobby Miller, Michael Grove, and Emmet Sheehan are all within the rotation, and Ryan Pepiot may theoretically be part of them when he comes off the IL. The workforce would little question prefer to ration out innings to these guys to maintain them contemporary for potential October motion. Enter Lynn, who can eat innings with the most effective of them. I’m not anticipating a ton out of him, however bulk innings with a low-4.00s ERA looks as if one thing the Dodgers may actually use down the stretch. He additionally has an $18.5 million workforce choice for subsequent 12 months, although that appears unlikely to be exercised in the intervening time.

We’ve seen the Joe Kelly present in Los Angeles earlier than, and it’s fairly just like the Joe Kelly present general. His stuff? It’s plain. His sinker tops out above 100 mph and he’s throwing his slider within the low 90s now, resulting in a career-high 21% swinging strike charge on that pitch. He mixes in curveballs, four-seamers, and changeups, a uncommon five-pitch reliever. He’s placing out a career-high 32% of opposing batters. That all sounds nice.

What’s the draw back? Walks, for one factor; Kelly has a 9.7% profession stroll charge, and he’s proper round that this 12 months. His fastball has big motion, and that betrays him when he will get behind within the rely. He’s able to excessive highs and low lows, and this 12 months is not any exception. I’m not anxious about his 4.97 ERA – it’s largely the results of terrible sequencing luck, and he hasn’t had notable bother with that in his profession. I’m extra involved about whether or not he can maintain placing out sufficient batters to maintain the walks from hurting him. It’s alright to be wild if you will get outs with out permitting a ball in play, however the equation would change shortly if Kelly’s strikeout charge ever declined.

The Dodger bullpen has been completely nice this 12 months, nevertheless it’s a bit top-heavy. Adding Kelly stretches it out; rather less Tyson Miller might be of their finest curiosity, and that’s principally the aim right here. I consider him extra as a throw-in; the Dodgers want starters greater than they want relievers, however including an additional mid-tier bullpen arm by no means hurts. Like Lynn, Kelly has a 2024 workforce choice ($9.5 million with a $1 million buyout).

The return for Chicago facilities round future relievers. Nick Nastrini has began each sport of his skilled profession, however he’s additionally put up double-digit stroll charges at each minor league cease. He has 4 plus pitches constructed round a 95 mph fastball with good experience and slicing motion. He spots two completely different breaking balls and a changeup off of it, however he doesn’t have nice really feel for any of them. In discussing the commerce, Eric Longenhagen supplied Hunter Brown earlier than Brown’s command took a step ahead as a comp.

With a fastball this good and loads of choices to comply with it up, Nastrini has a great probability of sticking on a significant league roster. With command this uneven, there’s a great probability that he leads to the bullpen, the place he’d be a strong setup sort or a luxurious within the center innings. There’s threat to each side of that projection. The upside case could be sufficient of an enchancment in strike-throwing to stay within the rotation; Nastrini missed a ton of time as an newbie resulting from damage, so possibly extra reps will unlock one thing. The draw back case could be that he can’t throw sufficient strikes to even work as a reliever, however I feel that’s fairly unlikely. Prior to the season, Eric had him simply outdoors the Top 100 as a forty five+ Future Value prospect, and nothing that’s occurred thus far this 12 months adjustments that analysis.

Jordan Leasure is already a reliever, however he’s probably going to be an excellent one. He has an enormous fastball, 97 mph with devastating motion. He additionally has an honest upper-80s slider that performs up as hitters scramble to hit his heater. He’s placing out 40% of opposing hitters in Double-A this 12 months, his third skilled season after being drafted out of the Division II University of Tampa.

That’s the excellent news. The unhealthy information is {that a} high-effort supply means he’s an detached strike thrower. His fastball goes to overlook a ton of bats excessive within the zone irrespective of the opposition he faces, however some center-cut misses and walks will doubtless at all times plague him. An offseason Honorable Mention, Eric’s up to date analysis of Leasure has him as a 40+ FV prospect, a possible bullpen arm with threat. If you’re uninterested in seeing a faceless military of unhittable relievers who can’t management the place their big fastballs go, unhealthy information: Leasure is extra of the identical. Here’s his new blurb on The Board:

Leasure has had a major velo spike throughout the final couple of seasons and leapt from the 94-96 mph vary to the 96-98 between 2022 and 2023. His fastball additionally added a number of grades value of motion, and the violent, vertical-slotted Leasure generates huge stick with it his fastball, giving it in-zone bat-missing potential. His fastball execution, each with regard to strikes and the standard of these strikes, is nicely under common. Leasure leaves plenty of his heaters in the course of the zone. His supply is kind of violent, however he has late-inning stuff in his fastball and nasty upper-80s slider, which has big size for a pitch that arduous. His lack of management will in all probability dilute his efficiency considerably and make him an erratic center reliever, however his stuff is on par with that of the second- or third-best arm in plenty of good bullpens.

Lastly, Trayce Thompson discovered himself on the shelf due to an indirect damage this 12 months, and this may need been his final shot at enjoying his means into an on a regular basis position. He has gargantuan energy pushed by an enormous, vicious swing, and he strikes out a ton consequently. When he connects, look out: I’d stack his barreled contact up towards the most effective energy hitters in baseball and really feel snug with the comparability. He’s a pleasant right-handed-hitting platoon bat when wholesome, and on condition that each of Chicago’s common nook outfielders are lefties, that’s a pleasant choice. He’s extra of a speculative add due to his damage and age, however I feel he makes extra sense on the White Sox than he does on the Dodgers, so I see why he was included within the return.

This commerce isn’t going to be earthshaking for both workforce, however the Dodgers actually wanted some arms. They’ve handled plenty of accidents this 12 months, they simply traded away Noah Syndergaard to shore up their infield, they usually’d prefer to relaxation their prime trio (Kershaw, Urías, Gonsolin) in addition to their rookies down the stretch if doable. I might hardly be shocked if Lynn flames out and doesn’t make the playoff roster, however the most certainly final result is that he offers some helpful innings and operates as a swingman within the postseason. Kelly is simply an funding in bulk bullpen constructing. They’re low-risk, low-reward provides, however that’s one thing the Dodgers usually do nicely.

As an additional benefit, the Dodgers are buying and selling from a place of power. They’re actually good at taking late-round draft picks and serving to them become fascinating prospects. Nastrini and Leasure had been each drafted in 2021. Neither was a excessive choose. The prime of the farm system is affected by stuff-heavy arms. These two may need been caught in a future roster crunch, however they’re serving to the workforce proper now as an alternative.

For Chicago, the return on this comes all the way down to what turns into of Nastrini. If he finally ends up as a mean reliever or worse, this commerce seems fairly unhealthy. It’s a vendor’s market this 12 months; their earlier commerce of Giolito and Lopez fetched a Top 100 prospect and a pleasant throw-in. Getting future relievers again could be a disappointment. If Nastrini finds the strike zone extra persistently and sticks as a starter, then it is a nice deal. I’m down on White Sox pitching improvement, so I’d guess towards him all of the sudden turning it round after leaving the Dodgers, however there’s at all times an opportunity. Leasure and Thompson are good throw-ins.

In my opinion, this was a good bit of enterprise by each groups. No one revitalized their group. No one pulled off a coup. This is simply ABC entrance workplace maneuvering. That doesn’t imply it’s not value doing, simply that evaluating it comes all the way down to saying that each one 5 guys are fairly good gamers and {that a} swap appears affordable.