Let’s Study Swing Path Variety within the 2023 Playoffs

In the cat and mouse recreation that’s the postseason, each determination issues, no matter how large or small. If a marginal aggressive benefit might be exploited, odds are a workforce will take their probability. Last yr, I investigated what I assumed was a key cause for the Astros’ postseason success during the last decade. The piece explored swing path range and the way Houston had extra of it than every other workforce from 2021 to 2022. Constructing a balanced, dynamic lineup is among the instruments groups can use to maintain pitchers and opposing managers sincere. There are a number of methods to outline stability in a lineup, together with swing aggression, whiff tendencies, velocity and athleticism, and handedness. But that piece targeted on variance in Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) inside lineups.

If you aren’t accustomed to VBA, it’s the vertical orientation of the bat at contact, the place 45 levels is a diagonal bat. It is pitch peak dependent – the quantity goes down as peak will increase (flatter bat) and goes up as peak decreases (steeper bat), making it differ inside a participant’s personal swing profile. There can also be variance participant to participant. On common, Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman have a lot steeper barrels at affect than flatter-swinging hitters like Juan Soto and Randy Arozarena. VBA is one in every of a number of vital bat monitoring metrics — horizontal bat angle, level of contact, bat velocity, acceleration, and time to contact are a couple of others — however VBA is essentially the most simply accessible as a result of pc imaginative and prescient work finished at SwingGraphs.

Because of this accessibility, VBA has been my go-to proxy for monitoring bat path modifications on a player-specific stage. Bat path has a strongest causal impact on whether or not or not a participant is an efficient hitter, however it additionally impacts how pitchers decide sequencing and pitch choice. With that mentioned, let’s examine swing range among the many playoff lineups, and particularly, these of the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks.

To start, I took a barely totally different strategy to preprocessing my knowledge this time. As I discussed, handedness performs a giant function right here as a result of it’s a key think about how managers stagger their lineups. Two hitters can have the identical VBA, but when they’re of the alternative handedness, their path is totally different. To account for that, I took the inverse of all left-handed hitter’s VBA. Similarly, I needed to account for switch-hitters. 72.2% of switch-hitter plate appearances got here towards right-handed pitchers in 2023. So as a substitute of taking the inverse, I multiplied all switch-hitters’ VBAs by -.722. Think about it as them being a lefty 72.2% of the time.

In phrases of who was in or out of the dataset, I solely included hitters on postseason rosters with at the very least one plate look. That actually solely considerably affected the Rays, who had been with out Luke Raley and Brandon Lowe. Lastly, I solely used VBA from the September/October portion of the common season. My logic was that what a hitter appears to be like like in April might be totally different from September. Hitters undergo swing fluctuations, and I needed to have the newest illustration of their swings. For the calculation, variance remains to be the measure used to signify range, however I’ve adjusted the quantity to be a proportion above or under common (of playoff groups solely), with the common set at 100, as with wRC+, OPS+, and so forth. With that mentioned, I current VBAVar+ for playoff groups in 2023:

For two postseasons in a row, the Phillies have been the most efficient NL offense by wRC+. This yr, their team-wide 118 wRC+ was excellent, a full 19 factors increased than their NLCS opponent, the Diamondbacks. The workforce doesn’t have any switch-hitters, however on each the left- and right-hand aspect, they’ve over 10 levels of dispersion. Trea Turner (29.0 levels) has the flattest swing on common amongst right-handed hitters, whereas Nick Castellanos (40.5) has the steepest. Brandon Marsh (41.6) has the steepest on the workforce, and Kyle Schwarber is 0.8 levels above Turner, making him the flattest lefty. There is a large variance of swing path on this lineup, and the Turner addition added a layer of range that the 2022 workforce didn’t have. From a recreation planning perspective, that range is a nightmare in a postseason matchup.

Similarly, the Twins and Dodgers have variance at the very least 10% above common. The Twins platoon technique considerably impacts this, however in addition they have hitters as steep as Edouard Julien (42.1) and as flat as Royce Lewis (25.8). Both are on the acute ends throughout the whole league, not simply their very own workforce. On the Dodgers’ aspect, Freeman can also be excessive at 42.0 levels, and is balanced by flatter swingers like Jason Heyward (27.6), David Peralta (28.8), and Enrique Hernández (28.1).

As for the Astros, my piece final yr topped them the workforce with essentially the most swing path range, so what provides? Well, there was a little bit of convergence of their VBAs in comparison with the earlier two seasons. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker’s swings converged nearer to at least one one other after being on reverse sides of the spectrum. Chas McCormick’s swing flattened considerably within the ultimate month after being virtually completely diagonal for many of the season (and final yr). Swapping their first baseman from the extraordinarily flat swinging Yuli Gurriel to a middle-of-the-pack swinger like José Abreu additionally introduced them nearer to the common. To be clear, these are nonetheless implausible hitters, however the convergence damage the benefit they’d constructed up in years previous.

Let’s now shift to essentially the most related a part of this dialog: the World Series matchup. The Diamondbacks and Rangers might not have the identical stage of swing path range as different golf equipment, however there are facets to every workforce that make for fascinating selections by Bruce Bochy and Torey Lovullo.

The Diamondbacks 97.98 VBAVar+ mark is common, however there may be good stability right here from a handedness perspective. They run out two lefties and two switch-hitters day-after-day, then have a gaggle of strong right-handed hitters. The limitation is that each of their lefties have extraordinarily flat swings. Corbin Carroll (28.3) and Alek Thomas (24.9) are on the shorter aspect, in order that is smart. However, Lovullo has been very strategic in who follows these two within the lineup. Gabriel Moreno’s bat path steepened as his well being improved and made its solution to an above-average mark at 37.6 levels. Following up a flat swinging lefty like Carroll with a extra crazy hitter like Moreno (even when they’re separated by one hitter towards right-handed pitchers) forces a pitcher to vary their pitch choice. Nathan Eovaldi doesn’t considerably partition his pitch combine, however he’ll have to vary how he makes use of his four-seamer towards every of those hitters after they face off tonight. And plus, Ketel Marte will doubtless be sandwiched between these two and he has been on absolute tear.

Eovaldi will face the same concern when the Thomas-Lourdes Gurriel Jr. a part of the lineup comes up too. Gurriel’s VBA is available in at 34.9 levels; he had good success towards changeups and splitters this season and wasn’t nice towards heaters. This will doubtless imply Eovaldi takes a fastball-heavy strategy towards the left fielder. However, if Thomas follows him within the lineup like he has beforehand, Eovaldi should instantly pivot his strategy due to Thomas’ success towards four-seamers this yr. He hit .309 towards them with a .384 xwOBA. It can be perfect if Eovaldi might instantly get in a rhythm together with his splitter, however he’ll be pressured to combine issues up with this a part of the lineup. However, it’s not all dangerous information for him. Tommy Pham and Christian Walker have lower than a level of VBA separation between them and are prone to hit behind each other. This can be a chance for Eovaldi to make use of the same pitch combine and particularly lean on his splitter since these two hitters haven’t had a lot success towards offspeed pitches.

On to the Rangers’ aspect of issues, Zac Gallen can be pressured to rotate handedness all evening besides towards Corey Seager and Evan Carter. That’s not a lot of a break! The two are separated in VBA by over 1.5 levels, and Seager is a breaking ball killer. Due to its vertical orientation, Gallen’s greatest pitch towards lefties is his knuckle curve, however Seager slugged .686 towards right-handed curveballs this yr. His knack for creating elevate on low pitches by adjusting his physique is dangerous information for Gallen. After Seager and Carter, he’ll then must handle Adolis García, who simply continues swatting homers.

But the extra fascinating a part of this lineup from a VBA perspective comes when Leody Taveras and Josh Jung step to the plate. Taveras has a flatter swing; his VBA is at 29.6 levels. He maintains a taller posture all through his swing and doesn’t make any vital barrel changes. This can be a bonus for Gallen as a result of he can use his knuckle curve and changeup to maneuver beneath Taveras’ barrel. In different phrases, it will likely be about preserving the ball down towards Taveras. The concern is that the identical zones which can be Taveras’ weaknesses are literally Jung’s strengths. His loopier 36.9 diploma VBA steepens much more on low-middle and low-in pitches. His xwOBA in these zones through the common season had been .468 and .515, respectively.

This is the place staggering swing sorts can turn into a bonus. Going from an excessive weak point in a single zone to an excessive power back-to-back forces a pitcher to vary his bodily really feel and pitch strategy. Nothing is harder than needing to execute a number of recreation plans on a rotating foundation. But if Gallen is searching for one thing to lean on, it’s that he can take the same strategy towards the flatter swinging lefties like Heim, Taveras, and Nathaniel Lowe. Since there isn’t a lot range amongst these three, he might have a neater time getting in a rhythm within the backside half of the lineup. The key can be staying away from Jung’s scorching zones and never letting Mitch Garver cheat on the four-seamer since that was the pitch he ambushed so nicely towards righties this yr (.510 xwOBA).

As you watch this weekend’s video games, take note of these matchups, particularly how every pitcher is pressured to vary their pitch choice relying on swing paths. These groups is probably not as broadly dispersed as others within the playoff area by way of pure VBA variance, however there are lanes in every lineup that can pressure pitchers to dynamically execute totally different recreation plans, one thing that’s a lot simpler mentioned than finished.