I’ll degree with you in the beginning of this: I by no means fairly purchased into what Luis Arraez was doing. When he received the batting title final 12 months, I used to be skeptical. When he was traded from Minnesota to Miami earlier than the season, I cherished the Twins’ facet of the deal. When he was flirting with a .400 batting common on the All-Star break, I relegated him to Honorable Mention standing on our high 50 commerce worth record. He simply perpetually flummoxed me, slapping singles whereas I stored pondering he couldn’t presumably stick with it.
Arraez has been downright putrid of late. He’s been under substitute degree for the reason that begin of August. He’s batting .262 with a .282 OBP in that span, which is difficult to fathom for a man who continues to be solely putting out 6.7% of the time. This isn’t a victory lap article, although. It received’t final. It can’t final. I don’t imagine in this model of Arraez any greater than I believed within the .400 hitter from June.
In attempting to resolve this thriller, I let different individuals information me. Honestly, I’m not the particular person to determine what Arraez is doing unsuitable, as a result of I by no means fairly understood what he was doing proper. So as a substitute, I learn a bunch of articles about the nice occasions. Then I appeared to see whether or not Arraez had stopped doing the issues that had so lately made him particular.
My favourite explanations, each linked in that pile of articles above, are Davy Andrews’ remark that whereas Arraez doesn’t hit the ball arduous fairly often, he hits it with medium exit velocity constantly, and Robert Orr’s level that he hits the ball at worthwhile launch angles with completely elite frequency. In plain English, the person hits mushy line drives like nobody else.
That feels like an actual, actionable ability. It explains a number of the weirdness round Arraez’s profile – he constantly runs low hard-hit charges however large line drive charges, and posts gaudy BABIPs with out something to talk of within the slugging division. And certainly, he was doing that greater than ever earlier this 12 months. In the primary half of the season, 29% of his batted balls have been line drives, the best mark within the league. His launch angle commonplace deviation was elite as nicely; relying on the way you outline a minimal batted ball threshold, he was someplace between first and fourth within the majors by that metric.
Obviously then, his final 40 or so days have been unhealthy as a result of he stopped hitting line drives, proper? Well, no. Since the beginning of August, which I’m going to make use of as an arbitrary cutoff level for the remainder of this text, he’s nonetheless operating a gaudy line drive price, 26.7% to be precise. But he’s solely BABIP’ing .265, a far cry from his .398 mark within the first half. And his launch angle commonplace deviation hasn’t elevated by a lot both; he’s fifth in that metric whilst he slumps. His candy spot price, the share of his batted balls which are lofted between eight and 32 levels, is sort of unchanged. In different phrases, all of the “does he hit soft line drives” checks are lighting up inexperienced.
But there’s one thing hidden on this knowledge. I’ve truly written about this particular factor up to now. “Sweet spots” aren’t created equal. If you hit the ball softly, you need to hit the ball between 10 and 24 levels. If you hit it arduous, you need to get it within the air extra, one thing like 20 to 35 levels. Arraez clearly lives within the mushy contact zone. It appears to be like like this:
If we re-calibrate his knowledge primarily based on softly hit candy spot price, issues change a bit. In the primary half of the 12 months, he had a 28% soft-hit candy spot price. Since August 1, he’s right down to 23%. That doesn’t sound like rather a lot, and truthfully, it’s not rather a lot. But consider it this fashion. Arraez has 13 softly hit balls within the 25-32 diploma lifeless zone the place it feels like productive contact however isn’t. Those balls have gone for a .231 BABIP, as in comparison with .560 on his 10-24 diploma batted balls. He’s hitting these weak fly balls extra usually, by a mile, than he did within the first half.
It sounds bizarre. Same candy spot price, comparable line drive price, comparable launch angle commonplace deviation, however a lot worse batted ball high quality? But it’s the actual deal. His outcomes are down, and they need to be down, as a result of should you’re going to flip softly hit balls everywhere in the park, you’ll be able to’t afford to have them grasp up within the air for too lengthy. Someone may catch them.
You might put this one other method should you needed to. There are at all times going to be loads of non-line-drive hits, even should you’re Luis Arraez. His have shifted from grounders to fly balls. There’s a key distinction between grounders and fly balls, and it’s the rationale that the so-called launch angle revolution swept baseball. When you hit a grounder, it’s in fact higher to hit it more durable. But it issues lower than you’d assume. Here’s groundball manufacturing bucketed by 2-mph exit velocity bands in 2023. The distinction between hitting one at 80 and 100 miles an hour is round 170 factors of wOBA, which could sound like rather a lot till you see the graph that comes after this one:
Meanwhile, right here’s fly ball manufacturing with the identical buckets added to that graph:
So sure, fly balls are higher as a result of they’ll flip into homers. But that’s solely true should you hit the ball arduous sufficient that you’ve an opportunity to go away the yard, and Arraez principally doesn’t. He’s hit solely 4% of his batted balls 100 mph or extra this 12 months, and that counts some scalded grounders and low line drives. Fly balls are additionally higher should you fully mishit them, as a result of they usually fall in entrance of charging outfielders, however Arraez principally by no means mishits the ball. The advantages of fly balls are principally nonexistent for him, whereas the prices are fairly actual; these outcomes on mid-velocity fly balls are actually abysmal.
Even all of those modifications can’t fully clarify Arraez’s large swoon. Statcast’s anticipated metrics take precisely what I’m speaking about into consideration, and so they assume he ought to be hitting .340 when he places the ball in play since August 1, as a substitute of the .281 he’s truly managed. He’s underperformed by as a lot as he outperformed Statcast numbers within the first half, coincidentally sufficient.
I don’t need to spend the complete article telling you to learn Davy Andrews, however he has one other piece that’s related right here. When he checked out outfield depth earlier this 12 months, he famous that opposing groups play their outfielders very shallow in opposition to Arraez. They’ve moved even nearer since then. That’s simply sensible positioning, and Arraez is taking part in proper into it by hitting extra mushy fly balls.
It goes farther than that, the truth is. Defenses have been pinching the third baseman (two ft nearer within the final month) and pushing each different infielder again. That’s a pure response to Arraez’s batted ball combine. When he hits the ball up the center, he’s gradual sufficient and makes middling sufficient contact that fielders can grasp again considerably and nonetheless throw him out in time. Meanwhile, he hits sufficient flares that the added distance helps infielders flip a minimum of a couple of into outs. His weakest groundball contact involves the third base facet, so third base is a logical place to shade an infielder nearer to dwelling. This may simply be a case of the NL East needing to regulate to him; in previous years, he confronted a ton of pinched third basemen with relaxed center infielders.
It’s actually not simple to defend Arraez. He sprays the ball everywhere, and mushy line drives are only a robust batted ball kind to cease. But his opponents are adjusting to reduce his abilities just a bit bit, and he’s concurrently hitting the ball within the air extra ceaselessly, which performs proper into their plans. He’s additionally been getting unfortunate, in fact. That’s simply the way it works whenever you make a residing by hitting the ball close to however not at fielders. Sometimes they catch it unexpectedly:
I didn’t come away from this investigation pondering Arraez is irrevocably damaged or something. But I did come away marveling on the diploma of issue his offensive recreation carries. The issues that make Arraez nice function on tiny margins. For a number of hitters, transferring your common launch angle round barely whereas nonetheless hitting the ball simply as arduous and simply as constantly is not any large deal. But Arraez operates in a Goldilocks zone. When he hits the ball too low, it’s all grounders and no satisfaction. When he hits the ball too excessive, the flared singles flip into lazy pop outs. Only when it’s juuuuuuust proper does he flip into Luis Arraez, singles monster.
If he’s working and not using a web, he’s doing a superb job of it. Even with this current prolonged stoop, Arraez comfortably leads each leagues in batting common. He solely has one ability, however he’s so good at that ability that he’s a 3-WAR participant with no defensive or baserunning worth. Honestly, that’s extra spectacular than the uncooked numbers to me. No one else can do what he does. No one else actually comes shut. Quibbling over whether or not he can maintain doing that or how worthwhile it’s to do it misses the marvel of the scenario. Sure, future wins and present usefulness and all that matter. But Arraez must be good to place up his singular batting traces, and he did simply that for the higher a part of this season. His current downturn solely emphasizes how unimaginable his early-season kind was.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com