Luis Medina Is Dealing

Here’s a real assertion: Luis Medina has not been excellent this 12 months. You can say that simply by taking a look at his numbers: a 5.35 ERA and a 4.83 FIP. He’s working a so-so 22.8% strikeout price and strolling a worrisome 10.8% of batters. If you seemed up substitute degree within the dictionary… effectively, you most likely wouldn’t discover something, as a result of that’s not the sort of factor that dictionaries outline. But Medina’s efficiency has been nearly precisely substitute degree this 12 months.

Here’s one other true assertion: Medina is nice proper now. That’s sort of complicated, what with all of the dangerous statistics I simply hit you with within the final paragraph, however I used to be dishonest. Those are Medina’s full-season numbers, however he’s been an absolute beast within the final month. I’m not speaking about some small-sample ERA mirage, both, although his ERA is a tidy 2.86. He’s working a 2.23 FIP, and he’s doing it by placing out 30% of opposing batters and strolling solely 5.6%. In different phrases, he’s an ace — or a minimum of, he was one in July. Sounds prefer it’s time for an investigation.

First issues first: Medina is a right-handed pitcher who plies his commerce for the Athletics. You most likely knew that, however hey, higher secure than sorry; there are a whole lot of baseball gamers on the planet, and a few of them even play for the A’s. Calling them an nameless crew may undersell it. They’ve climbed out of the really abysmal tempo they have been on early within the season, however this isn’t even near a very good crew; we’re projecting them to complete the season with 109 losses.

Medina came to visit to the A’s within the commerce that despatched Frankie Montas to the Yankees, however he wasn’t the headliner of Oakland’s return. We projected him as a reliever coming into the 12 months; his command was downright horrible on the finish of final 12 months, and he was strolling a daft 23.1% of opposing hitters in Triple-A this 12 months when he bought referred to as up. His stuff? It’s as nasty as you may presumably think about, however guys like that typically find yourself within the bullpen.

A couple of GIFs of that stuff will open your eyes to why the A’s have been keen to take an opportunity on Medina within the majors anyway. First, there are his drool-worthy fastballs. His calling card is a four-seamer, and that appears mainly the way you’d count on it to. It’s explosive and usually demoralizing for opposing hitters:

Despite the speed and the motion, his fastball doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d count on. He’s as much as a 9.3% swinging-strike price on the pitch in July, however that’s not even that prime. Amusingly, it’s roughly the identical price at which he missed bats along with his sinker final month. He began the 12 months throwing nearly solely four-seamers, however he’s combined in a sinker an increasing number of because the 12 months has worn on. He threw it almost as a lot as his four-seamer in July, and it additionally seems like a keeper. Here’s a cherry-picked one which induced an unsightly swing:

He additionally throws a gyro slider within the mid-80s. It’s not likely my favourite pitch, however you may consider it as an offset to his two fastballs. If you’re on the lookout for a kind of, this can tie you in knots:

The tour continues with a 12–6 curve that Medina struggles to find. When he’s getting it close to the plate, it’s deadly:

He additionally sprinkles within the occasional changeup, however he’s been shifting away from each it and the curve in his latest scorching stretch. He doesn’t want them; he’s simply overpowering hitters with a fastball/slider mixture. That accounts for 85% of his pitches previously month, as in comparison with solely about 75% earlier than then. In different phrases, he’s adopting a reliever-ish strategy to pitch combine.

You may ponder whether meaning Medina is sure for a five-and-dive profession. In my skilled opinion: perhaps! Numerous pitchers stay in that basic realm at the moment. Here’s a counterpoint to that, although: the A’s are a minimum of letting him attempt to get via the order a 3rd time. In his 4 appearances in July (three begins and a six-inning outing behind an opener), he confronted 26, 21, 20, and 23 batters. He’s solely failed to finish two turns via the order as soon as this 12 months, when he bought completely shellacked (six hits, 4 walks) in two innings of labor towards the Marlins. Everyone’s throwing fewer innings, however Medina doesn’t look disproportionately affected.

The fundamental purpose I’m writing about him now isn’t his pitch combine, although. It’s not his innings workload or his altering fastball desire. It’s his command. Across two outings on June 25 and June 30, Medina confronted 49 batters and walked 12. That’s a stroll price approaching 25%, not precisely main league playable. Out of the 90 batters he confronted in July, he walked 5. Yeah, one thing appears to have modified.

What’s new? In a phrase: execution. He’s been leaning an increasing number of into throwing a first-pitch fastball within the strike zone, a reasonably apparent repair for a pitcher with below-average command. Oakland catchers arrange proper down the center to start out off almost hitter Medina faces, however he hasn’t all the time hit that concentrate on. In July, he’s not losing many first pitches, which was an enormous drawback for him earlier on. And when he does find yourself behind, his sinker offers him an extra weapon to get again into counts.

In reality, his sinker is the important thing to the entire operation. Look at it subsequent to his four-seamer, and also you’ll marvel why it took him so lengthy to be taught this pitch:

Here’s the way in which I take into consideration this modification: being wild doesn’t solely harm due to walks. It hurts as a result of you find yourself behind within the depend extra regularly, and that was an enormous drawback for Medina. His four-seamer, which is the pitch he instructions greatest, isn’t one thing you need to be residing within the strike zone with. Opposing batters have accomplished some injury once they’ve put it in play. He ended up in a bind: throw a four-seamer and invite onerous contact, or attempt to dance round it along with his secondaries and find yourself strolling somebody.

For now, he’s solved that drawback. A grounder-inducing fastball is strictly what the physician ordered for a pitcher who struggles with command. He can throw it in there when he’s behind, no questions requested. The method the A’s are coping with his command — arrange middle-middle and let the motion and wildness go to work — seems quite a bit higher once you’re not throwing a four-seamer down the center of the plate. Having a fastball that fears contact much less issues quite a bit once you want your fastball to bail you out regularly. Stuff fashions suppose that the sinker is comfortably the higher of his two fastballs, in addition; it’s not only a pitch of comfort, in different phrases.

I’m not able to declare Medina an ace, clearly. We’re speaking about 4 outings, a reasonably quick month of labor. But I’m able to say that he’s tapped into one thing we hadn’t beforehand seen from him. The sinker is a superb weapon for when at-bats aren’t going the way in which he desires, however he’s additionally ending extra regularly when he will get forward. His slider has been a vicious two-strike weapon:

He’s discovering corners and edges with the pitch way more usually of late. When he was forward within the depend in July, he threw 33 sliders and hit the shadow zone with a 3rd of them. That’s not an enormous price, however it’s 10 proportion factors increased than what he was managing earlier within the 12 months. He additionally mothballed his curveball when forward within the depend, throwing solely 13 such curves in July after 35 in June. Given his struggles with curveball command, that’s most likely for the perfect; it’s good as an occasional show-me pitch, however he was bouncing it so usually that he was frittering away useful counts.

It may sound like I’m attempting to color Medina as a nascent ace, a man who solved his pesky command drawback and all of a sudden turned deadly. I don’t really feel that strongly, to be sincere with you. I believe he’s fairly good, although — higher than I gave him credit score for when the A’s acquired him final 12 months. His fastball/slider mixture actually performs. His slider is the sharp kind that doesn’t go away him helpless towards lefties. He has an electrical arm, little question about that; his changeup seems promising, although he positively struggles to command it.

I’ll accept a reasonable take: I believe Medina is an above-average starter proper now. His command goes to return and go, there’s no method round that. He’s going to have video games the place he can’t discover the zone; I can’t discover any apparent factor he’s modified that can all of a sudden erase his earlier wildness. But by dialing up a distinct fastball and simply executing the pitches he does throw higher, he’s made it abundantly clear that he has the stuff to achieve the large leagues. For an Oakland crew completely determined for silver linings, he’s simply what was wanted.