Meet the New Kyle Hendricks, Just like the Previous Kyle Hendricks

The Cubs are in playoff rivalry on the finish of August, and Kyle Hendricks is getting hitters out with a tasting menu of exquisitely situated mid-80s funk. (Grabs nearest passerby) “The date! I need you to tell me the date!…God Almighty, my time machine works!”

For a lot of the late 2010s, Hendricks was not fairly an ace however was a bankable no. 2 or no. 3 starter. Even in his relative youth, he by no means threw onerous; the quickest pitch of Hendricks’ whole profession was 93.1 mph, and he hasn’t even hit 91 since 2016. People who apparently by no means watched Greg Maddux cherished to stamp a “next Greg Maddux” label on any bookish right-hander with nice command, and of these, Hendricks most likely got here the closest to dwelling as much as the comparability.

After a dominant COVID-shortened 2020, Hendricks struggled; he received blasted to the tune of a 4.77 ERA and 4.89 FIP in 2021, then put up comparable numbers in 2022 earlier than a shoulder damage put him down for the season.

But since coming back from that damage round Memorial Day, Hendricks has been superb: a 3.80 ERA and three.97 FIP in 104 1/3 innings over 18 begins. That efficiency isn’t going to make Hendricks a Cy Young contender, as he was in 2016, but it surely’s the very best he’s pitched since earlier than the pandemic.

And the timing for the Cubs has been fairly good; high free agent signing Jameson Taillon has been underwhelming, and putative no. 1 starter Marcus Stroman is on the IL with fractured cartilage in his rib cage. We in baseball grow to be inured to torn ligaments and infected capsules, however “fractured rib cage cartilage” is a very gross-sounding damage. Like one thing out of Predator.

Until and until Stroman returns, the highest two pitchers in Chicago’s rotation are All-Star left-hander Justin Steele and Hendricks. So is that this truly the identical Hendricks who was entrusted to start out Game 7 of the 2016 World Series? Sort of.

Of the 99 pitchers who’ve thrown not less than 100 innings this yr, 93 throw a four-seam fastball. Of these, Hendricks’ is the slowest, averaging 87.7 mph. Rich Hill has him by half a mile an hour. Sixty-six of these pitchers throw a sinker; Hendricks’ is the second-slowest of these at 87.4 mph, forward of solely Hill. He has the fifth-lowest strikeout charge of pitchers with not less than 100 innings this season.

So the stuff isn’t superb in and of itself. In addition to rock-bottom velocity, Hendricks’ two fastballs and changeup usually have below-average motion:

There additionally isn’t an enormous velocity differential between Hendricks’ fastballs and his most-used secondary pitch, the changeup. The velocity delta between Hendricks’ hardest fastball and his changeup is 7.1 mph, which is middle-of-the-road. Of that pattern of pitchers with 100 or extra innings, 83 throw a changeup. Of these, Hendricks’ fastball-changeup velocity differential is forty eighth.

Perversely, these three pitches, which make up about 96% of Hendricks’ whole output this season, are so intently grouped collectively in motion and velocity that they entice opponents to swing however make Hendricks tough to sq. up. Opponents are nonetheless crushing Hendricks’ fastball (.480 wOBA), however the .213 opponent wOBA he’s getting on his changeup is the bottom of his profession.

Hendricks’ total opponent wOBA is Twenty fifth-best out of the 106 pitchers who qualify for Baseball Savant’s leaderboard. He doesn’t strike anybody out, however he additionally doesn’t stroll anybody. Hendricks would little question prefer to run a whiff charge like Spencer Strider’s, however he’s in a position to reside with the shortage of strikeouts. Being in a position to find in addition to Hendricks does helps, positive, however he’s additionally inducing weak contact. His opponent wOBACON is ninth-best in baseball, and his xwOBACON is eleventh.

The means he’s doing that is by throwing the ball in locations the place the hitter can attain the ball, however can’t hit the ball onerous. Hendricks has thrown 26.6% of his pitches within the chase assault zone, the very best charge out of 117 pitchers with not less than 1,500 pitches thrown this season. That’s the realm simply exterior the strike zone. And regardless that the ball is out of the zone, opponents have swung at 30.7% of the pitches Hendricks has thrown in that area this yr, the fifth-highest mark in baseball.

As a consequence, Hendricks is prospering on this space simply past the frontiers of the strike zone. Overall, Hendricks has held opponents to a .217 wOBA within the chase zone, Thirteenth-best within the league. When hitters swing, that quantity goes right down to .111.

That’s one of many huge adjustments for Hendricks this season; when he was getting romped in 2021, he was leaving the ball within the strike zone an excessive amount of. Now, he’s throwing it down and out of the zone extra, and hitters are chasing.

The different change is that Hendricks has all however junked his curveball. He’s nonetheless throwing it 3.8% of the time, however that’s simply 61 pitches all yr. That’s mainly nothing. Go house and inform your companion or your roommate or your dad and mom that you just did 3.8% of the dishes and see how they react.

The curveball has all the time been one in every of Hendricks’ weaker pitches, and he’s by no means thrown it greater than 20% of the time. But again in 2016, he was working with a curve and a cutter fairly often. Now, he’s solely throwing pitches with arm-side motion.

Just 4.5% of the pitches Hendricks has thrown this season have had impartial or glove-side motion. Among the 117 pitchers with not less than 1,500 pitches thrown this season, that’s the second-lowest proportion. Here’s a enjoyable little bit of trivia: The pitchers at each extremes of this listing are each Cubs. Steele throws extra pitches with glove-side motion than some other pitcher within the league; Drew Smyly has probably the most arm-side-heavy repertoire.

As you realize, most beginning pitchers attempt to have each arm- and glove-side break of their repertoire as a result of it permits them to fight each left- and right-handed hitters with pitches that break in on their fingers. Hendricks has a pitch that breaks in on righties, however he solely throws it thrice a begin. In truth, Hendricks has thrown three curveballs to lefties this yr for each one he’s thrown to righties. It’s a digital nonentity. And given the way it’s been hit in recent times, ditching it looks as if a wise transfer:

And he doesn’t appear to overlook his breaking ball in any respect:

It’s a noticeable reverse platoon break up, however not a extreme one. And with the shoulder damage behind him, Hendricks is having his greatest season in three years. It’s not fairly a return to 2016 — for him or the Cubs as a group — but it surely’s progress.