For the final two offseasons, the Mets have operated with shock and awe, signing each free agent that wasn’t nailed down en path to constructing a crew that might commerce blows with the Braves atop the NL East. As you will have heard, that didn’t precisely pan out. So this offseason, they’re taking a brand new tack with a string of fascinating signings that play beneath the highest of the market. That development continued over the weekend, when the Mets signed Sean Manaea to a two-year, $28 million deal, as Jon Heyman first reported.
As Kyle Kishimoto famous in our free agent preview, Manaea spent 2023 swinging wildly between roles for a Giants crew that wanted pitching assist in every single place. He was a starter, lengthy reliever, setup man, regardless of the scenario demanded. He carried out adequately in that robust job, however when he opted out of his contract after the season, it appeared doubtless that he’d search for a full-time beginning spot. That’s the place he’ll slot in on the Mets, who’ve spent the offseason remaking a rotation that had loads of holes to fill after 2023’s commerce spree.
Manaea is a tough pitcher to pin down. He’s a sinker-dominant lefty – solely possibly it’s a four-seamer, or at the very least it behaves loads like one if it’s not. Increasingly, he makes use of that pitch, which has extra arm-side motion than experience, to overlook bats and complement his slider and changeup. He’s a soft-tosser – solely he added a number of ticks of velocity in 2023. That wasn’t a fluke of his utilization, both; he averaged 93.4 mph as a starter and 93.6 mph as a reliever after sitting 89-91 for the final half decade.
It will get weirder than that. His slider and changeup don’t actually appear like good out pitches. Stuff+ and PitchingBot metrics agree that each are barely below-average in stuff, although they each agree that he instructions them properly. So he’s a command-first man – besides he points walks and information strikeouts at higher-than-league-average charges. His changeup has traditionally been his greatest pitch – solely it seemed a lot worse in 2023, with a 9% swinging strike fee, whilst his general outcomes improved. His slider is a wierd one, too; it’s a gradual gyro providing that ties batters in knots once they swing, however doesn’t induce a ton of chases.
Put one other approach: Sean Manaea is an enigma. I’m nearly sure that he’s a very good pitcher, however I’d wrestle to elucidate precisely why. He’s constantly delivered innings-eater kind outcomes, however the way in which he does it has modified over time. His changeup is his greatest pitch when it comes to outcomes – however he’s been far worse in opposition to righties than lefties. And final 12 months’s information is confused by that hybrid function. Projection methods suppose he’s someplace round league common, however they’re by no means certain of what his function might be, which makes that projection rather more tenuous.
In some methods, that uncertainty fits the Mets. If you are taking them at face worth, and I feel it is best to on this case, they’re attempting to construct a long-term juggernaut, the form of crew that yearly tries to win 95-100 video games. It’s actually onerous to inhabit that area with no pitching employees that’s lengthy on above-average arms. The Braves managed it final 12 months, however that was with an historic offense, and so they’ve spent the offseason attempting to make sure that they’ve a extra strong rotation going ahead. So, too, have the Dodgers. It’s loads simpler to win a bundle of video games if in case you have at the very least three superb starters and a giant group of acceptable pitchers behind them.
What I like about Manaea on the Mets is that he may match into both of these two teams. I feel {that a} mid-3.00s ERA season is totally in vary for him; he has loads of instruments that may add as much as a very stable pitcher. But as a result of that consequence is much from sure, he comes at a relative cut price fee; $14 million is kind of Lance Lynn cash, however I feel the excessive finish of Manaea’s vary of outcomes is comfortably higher than that. If he’s nice, plug him into the highest half of your rotation. If he’s extra of a fifth starter kind or will get crushed out by 5 different starters, these are each roles he’s aware of. Sign three guys like Manaea, and also you may find yourself with one plus starter and two stable swingmen. I feel it’s a clever technique to take dangers like that while you’re attempting to construct a sturdy pitching group.
Only, possibly to not take dangers like this? The contract isn’t a straight two-year pact; it comes with an opt-out after the 2024 season. And that flips the danger round meaningfully. If Manaea has a powerful season as a starter, he’ll actually choose out; once more, one 12 months and $14 million is back-end starter cash lately, and he’d get greater than that coming off of a very good season. If he lands within the backside a part of his vary of outcomes, he’ll keep, however not as a difference-maker.
That makes this contract a bizarre slot in my eyes. It quantities to sacrificing some worth in 2025 – both Manaea might be gone while you needed him, or there when his 2024 season was disappointing – in alternate for a very good fee in 2024. That doesn’t actually match with how I anticipate the Mets to function; I’d anticipate them to be shopping for optionality by way of crew choices fairly than promoting it by way of opt-outs. Put one other approach, I feel that Manaea’s risky profile fits their wants, however his contract implies that the volatility will nearly by no means play out of their favor in 2025.
To some extent, that is most likely a lot ado about nothing. If Manaea is superior in 2024 and desires to choose out, the Mets can at all times work out an extension; if he’s nice, he’ll presumably be predisposed to stick with the crew. Maybe that finally ends up costing them a little bit extra, however you may consider this 12 months as an audition. I’m fairly assured that the Mets will want loads of pitching assist in free company in coming years; their rebuilt farm system is heavy on place gamers and lightweight on influence arms.
Put one other approach, the Mets actually need to check out loads of guys like Manaea. If this deal is what it took to get him within the door, so be it. This contract isn’t going to restrict their payroll flexibility or make them unable to compete for future expertise, however not having sufficient playable beginning pitching may be the distinction between a repeat of 2023 and a playoff berth. The crew has loads of expertise – we expect they’ve a top-10 place participant group and common pitching – however depth is certainly a priority.
Maybe that, then, is the lesson of this deal. Pitchers with Manaea’s normal profile are in demand, as a result of groups each must fill loads of beginning innings within the common season and wish to acquire a gaggle of three or 4 fascinating starters and hope one in all them turns right into a playoff-caliber starter. I’d guess on at the very least one in all Manaea, Luis Severino, or Adrian Houser delivering an awesome 2024, one that will give the Mets at the very least three first rate choices in a playoff collection. I like that guess much more with three pitchers to select from than two; in different phrases, the Severino and Houser acquisitions would really feel incomplete with out extra pitchers of that normal tier.
If these pitchers are in demand, groups must compete for his or her companies. And Manaea’s big selection of outcomes is a two-way road; he himself is unquestionably conscious of it. Put two and two collectively – loads of groups need his companies, and he is aware of that 2024 will do loads to have an effect on his future earnings potential – and it makes loads of sense that he’d ask for an opt-out to separate the crew that almost all needs his companies from the remainder of the pack. It’s all properly and good to say that it’s unusual crew habits to provide high-risk, high-reward pitchers the possibility to choose out of their offers, however it’s fully doubtless that with out that choose out, the Mets wouldn’t have been in a position to signal Manaea within the first place.
Let’s go away it at that: This seems like a deal that each side get one thing out of. The Mets appear like contenders in 2024, and this signing helps cement that. Manaea will get the beginning function he absolutely coveted, and in addition will get an opportunity to re-engage with free company subsequent winter if he’s pretty much as good as he hopes. This seems like a good deal to me, in essentially the most optimistic sense of the time period.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com