Mookie Betts Has Been Starting Issues Off With a Bang

Mookie Betts ended June the best way he started it, by main off the Dodgers’ half of the primary inning with a homer, then including one other afterward as one in every of his three further hits. He bookended his month by doing so in opposition to the Yankees in Los Angeles on June 2, then in opposition to the Royals in Kansas City on June 30. Along the best way, he added an extra 5 homers, boosting his season whole to 22 (he hit his twenty third on Tuesday evening in opposition to the Pirates), and he’s remained sizzling as July has begun. Not surprisingly, he’ll be the National League’s beginning lineup in subsequent week’s All-Star Game.

Betts has been on a leadoff homer binge this season. Just previous the halfway level, he’s hit 9 already, together with 5 in June, and three in an eight-day span because the month ended:

Betts’ whole so far ties him for ninth on the single-season leaderboard, although he’s simply 4 homers shy of the report, which was challenged by Jose Altuve final yr, when he fell one quick:

You’ll observe that each one however a type of 12 seasons has taken place within the Wild Card period (1995 onward), and half of them have occurred in what we would name the Statcast period (2015 onward). Those excessive concentrations have lots to do with the upper house run charges of current seasons, they usually additionally owe lots to groups’ growing willingness to bat energy hitters first. Who doesn’t discover the potential for a fast 1–0 lead tantalizing?

To that finish, right here’s a comparability overlaying the final 40 seasons, displaying the house run charges of leadoff hitters in all of their plate appearances (not simply the game-openers) in opposition to the main league-wide price:

As you may see, it wasn’t actually till round 2015 that the 2 charges began to converge. From 1984 to 2015, the leadoff hitter price by no means reached 80% of the complete league price, usually hovering round 60% and solely topping 70% half a dozen instances. In 2016, it reached 84%, and for yearly since ’18 (save for the pandemic-shortened ’20 season), it’s been not less than 90%, with a excessive of 96% in ’21. While the charges for 2020, ’22 and ’23 are goosed a bit by the exclusion of pitchers, apparently sufficient, they’re nonetheless decrease than the pitcher-inclusive charges of 2018 (94%), ’19 (95%), and ’21.

Given that basic pattern, it shouldn’t be too stunning that the all-time leaderboard for game-opening homers (whether or not hit by the visiting group or the house group) is closely tilted towards current gamers:

To keep away from confusion, I’ve eschewed the time period “leadoff” right here after muddying the waters above; the “Game-Opening Homers” are from the primary plate appearances of the primary inning, and the “Batting 1st” are from all plate appearances in that spot. Betts is second to George Springer among the many lively leaders within the game-openers; kind the desk and also you’ll see that he’s now second solely to Rickey Henderson himself in homers out of the highest spot, having handed Alfonso Soriano this yr. Notably lacking from the latter rankings in case you kind are Johnny Damon (163 homers from 1995 to 2012) and Eddie Yost (131 homers from 1946 to ’62), however everyone else in the highest 16 is there.

The Dodgers have batted Betts nearly completely out of the leadoff spot for the previous two seasons; he has taken a mere three plate appearances in different spots whereas coming off the bench and batted someplace decrease than first in simply 28 of his 177 video games in 2020–21. He hit first for the overwhelming majority of his time in Boston as nicely, however solely in his MVP-winning 2018 season did he hit there roughly completely (he had two PA off the bench elsewhere that yr).

With his 23 homers in 85 group video games, Betts is on tempo not solely to surpass his profession excessive of 35, set final yr, but in addition to problem the single-season report of 39 homers out of the highest spot, shared by Soriano (2006 with the Cubs) and Springer (2019 with the Astros), and almost tied final yr by Kyle Schwarber (38). He might wind up competing for the report with Ronald Acuña Jr., who has 21 homers out of the leadoff spot himself. Overall, Betts ranks third within the NL in homers behind Matt Olson (28) and Pete Alonso. He’s second in WAR (3.8), albeit a full win behind Acuña, and fourth in each wRC+ (152) and slugging share (.560). All instructed, he’s having a greater season even than final yr’s 6.5-WAR marketing campaign; his .377 on-base share is a 37-point enchancment, his slugging share a 27-point one, and his wRC+ an eight-point one.

What’s extra, Betts has accomplished a more-than-respectable job enjoying the center infield. In 139 innings at second base — not solely a profession excessive but in addition greater than he logged there from 2016 to ’22 mixed — he has 3 DRS, 1 OAA, and 0.7 UZR, and in 89 innings at shortstop, a place he hadn’t performed professionally since 2013, he has 1 DRS, 0.1 RAA, and -1 RAA. Given the small samples, you may most likely take these measures with a grain of salt, however he definitely hasn’t embarrassed himself at both spot, and at instances, he’s regarded like a pure.

On the offensive facet, Betts has improved in two key areas relative to final yr. He’s trimmed his chase price from a career-high 26% to a career-low 19.3%, primarily by taking extra pitches on the backside of the shadow zone. He’s minimize his whiff price in zones 17, 18, and 19 from 34.4% final yr to 22% this yr, and he’s spitting on nearly any fastball that will get that low, swinging at simply eight four-seamers and sinkers in these zones in comparison with 34 all of final yr. That’s helped his stroll price rebound from 8.6%, his lowest since 2016, to a career-high 13.8%.

Betts’ extra selective method has led to higher contact. His 92.6 mph common exit velocity represents a 2.1-mph enhance on final yr’s common and locations him within the 92nd percentile. His 12.5% barrel price is sort of three factors forward of final yr, and his 48.6% hard-hit price is sort of 4 factors forward; each are the second-best marks of his profession behind solely his 2018 numbers and place him within the 81st and eighty fifth percentiles. His .560 xSLG is 95 factors larger than final yr, and his .405 xwOBA is 61 factors larger; they place him within the 86th and 97th percentiles, respectively. He’s not precisely Aaron Judge, however he’s pounding the ball.

As famous, Betts has 3.8 fWAR and likewise 3.9 bWAR, which places him 0.1 wanting matching his seventh-best season; in different phrases, he’s about to begin padding his peak WAR rating. Another 1.5 bWAR would give him 61.6 profession and 51.9 peak, in addition to 56.8 JAWS, a hair above the usual for Hall proper fielders — and that’s whereas nonetheless in simply his tenth season.

If there’s one cautionary observe relating to Betts’ play this yr, it’s within the outfield; the place his metrics had been excellent final yr (15 DRS, 12.8 UZR, 3 RAA), they’re merely common this yr, albeit in simply 472.2 innings. His outfield soar percentile has fallen from the eightieth to the 53rd, and his dash velocity is within the forty seventh percentile, his third yr within the center after six years within the 70s or above.

All of which will replicate growing older, or the price of his part-time work within the infield, however it is also Betts dialing again his depth as a matter of self-preservation. He performed in a complete of 264 video games in 2021–22, making journeys to the injured checklist for proper hip irritation and a rib fracture, and at instances was fairly banged up even whereas within the lineup. This yr, he’s performed in all however three of the Dodgers’ video games, and two of these had been because of his paternity depart in April. On a group in a dogfight for the NL West title and that has extra weak spots within the lineup than typical, that’s made fairly a distinction. Acuña is clearly the odds-on favourite to win the NL MVP award proper now, however Betts might nicely wind up within the dialog come poll season.