For months, it appeared all however sure that Ronald Acuña Jr. would win the National League Most Valuable Player Award in a rout – probably unanimously. Maybe he nonetheless will, as a result of he’s definitely accomplished nothing to injure his case; he’s merely hitting .343/.427/.565 this month because the Braves coast to a sixth consecutive division title. But, by no fault of his personal, it’s not fairly so clear anymore, is it?
That’s as a result of Mookie Betts is ending off the very best month of what’s more and more wanting like a Hall of Fame profession. Entering Monday, he led Acuña in house runs, OPS, and each main variations of Wins Above Replacement. While award ballots aren’t – and shouldn’t be – a easy “rank the WAR” train, particularly with regards to tiny fractions of a win, each main WAR variations are in actual settlement concerning the Betts lead has, even after Acuña’s 4-for-5 with a homer and two steals efficiency in Colorado on Monday.
Leading the league in WAR, house runs and OPS, all for a first-place crew? Maybe the query is much less what Betts’ case is for successful the award, and extra what his case for not successful it’s.
That’s too glib, in fact. What Betts is missing is the season-long narrative of being the front-runner for the award, which issues loads. What he’s missing are the 51 (!) further stolen bases that Acuña has, seemingly on the best way to historical past’s first 30/70 season, having already achieved historical past’s first 30/60 season, at that. But if we’re discussing narratives right here, then the narrative of Betts answering the decision to maneuver from proper discipline to begin 53 video games (and counting) as a center infielder, simply because his crew wanted him to, is a robust one in and of itself.
That that is even a dialog (and it’s!) says significantly extra concerning the greatness of Betts than it does about any imagined flaw of Acuña’s. How did Betts even get right here – and the way do you outline worth, anyway?
(A quick second to acknowledge Freddie Freeman, who’s within the midst of the very best full season of his personal Hall of Fame profession; he’s, consider it or not, simply 10 factors behind Luis Arraez for the Major League lead in batting common and will set the Major League document for doubles, every feats which might seemingly catch the eyes of some voters. He truly leads Acuña in FanGraphs WAR. But since Freeman performs first base and lags Betts in slugging and each Betts and Acuña in house runs, he’s missing a few of that narrative high quality that issues when people vote on awards.
To a lesser extent than that, this is applicable additionally to Matt Olson, who will in all probability hit 50 homers and lead the game in RBIs, although he’ll lag in WAR on account of lack of baserunning worth and first base protection that’s, by his personal admission, lower than his ordinary normal. With the understanding {that a} red-hot end might change the equation, we’ll take into account this a two-man race for now.)
1) It took Betts’ greatest month on the plate to even get right here
As of Tuesday, Betts, who spent a part of final offseason coaching with weighted bats at Driveline Baseball, is second within the Majors (behind solely Shohei Ohtani) in slugging share and OPS, and he’s already tied his personal profession excessive with 35 homers.
This is the important thing, as a result of for a lot of the season, Betts trailed Acuña in hitting manufacturing, and as we famous earlier, Acuña has hardly run into any form of hunch. Instead, Betts has turned it on, in a manner that may be simpler understood when you take a look at their respective month-to-month OPS. It’s indeniable that Acuña bought off to a quicker begin than Betts did, simply because it’s indeniable that Betts has had a much better August than Acuña has had. In between? From May by July, Betts had a 1.000 OPS. Acuña had a .989 OPS, which is to say: basically equivalent.
The distinction is in that first month, and the latest month. Since Betts’ benefit in August was bigger than Acuña’s was in April, the season-long totals replicate that Betts has been considerably higher on the plate, largely with regards to energy, as a result of he has 11 further extra-base hits.
Betts: .312/.406/.606, 1.011 OPS, 169 OPS+, 35 HR
Acuña: .335/.418/.572, .989 OPS, 164 OPS+, 29 HR
Betts now holds a 22-point hole in OPS. Acuña has scored 9 extra runs, and Betts has an fringe of 14 in RBIs. They every have wonderful strikeout charges and stroll charges, each higher than common.
But it took till Aug. 20 for Betts to take the lead in OPS, and that’s key right here. Given Acuña’s giant lead in stolen bases, which we’ll get to in a second, Betts was just about going to need to hit as effectively or higher to make a robust case, which he now lastly has – due to the greatest month he’s ever had. It’s among the best months anybody’s had within the final 10 seasons, truly.
Betts, greatest months ever, by OPS
1.282 // August 2023
1.200 // May 2018
1.173 // April 2018
1.156 // September 2018
1.103 // August 2020
This will get into “create whatever narrative you prefer” territory, actually. If you wish to credit score Acuña for consistency, be happy to take action. If you wish to credit score Betts for enhancing because the season goes on and enjoying on the highest degree because the playoffs close to, credit score him for that, too. There’s by no means going to be a proper reply there.
Aside from batting common, Betts leads Acuña in most each notable batting metric, together with the batting part of WAR (FanGraphs has Betts at 51 batting runs, greatest within the NL, with Acuña third behind Freeman, at 49). Though Betts isn’t more likely to repeat his August, that 22-point lead in OPS appears a troublesome one to beat within the remaining few weeks, and the projections counsel that they need to carry out about identically in that regard for the remainder of the season, which might be a becoming finale for 2 elite hitters.
If that occurs, Betts will lead in OPS, and he’ll seemingly lead in WAR, and … effectively, what would that imply?
2) How uncommon wouldn’t it be to steer the league in WAR and OPS and never win the MVP?
“Sixteen of the last 28 MVPs led their league in bWAR,” Benjamin Alter wrote for SABR earlier this 12 months, noting additionally that solely as soon as within the final 15 seasons did an MVP win with out ending with a top-5 WAR whole, a sign of the strengthening acceptance of the metric through the years. Having essentially the most WAR in a season doesn’t (and shouldn’t) assure an MVP Award, however main the league in it certainly says loads about how precious you have been. How typically, then, does a participant lead in OPS, and in WAR? And in the event that they try this, as Betts presently does, how typically does that flip into an award?
Since the Baseball Writers’ Association of America started voting for MVPs in 1931, a participant has led his league in OPS and WAR 80 occasions. (That’s 43 within the NL, and 37 within the AL.) Only 42 of these seasons ended with an MVP season, or simply over half. That looks as if a disappointing correlation, besides that it’s accounting for all of these seasons from practically a century in the past lengthy earlier than anybody had heard of any such factor.
Maybe it’s extra helpful to stay to trendy occasions. Just take a look at the way it’s gone for the reason that 12 months 2000:
National League since 2000
The two that didn’t? In 2000, when voters certainly didn’t know easy methods to deal with the numbers Todd Helton put up in a pre-humidor Coors Field (he completed fifth), and 2017, which isn’t laborious to elucidate in any respect, as a result of Giancarlo Stanton was basically tied with Joey Votto in WAR (7.9 to Votto’s 8.1), however he hit 59 homers on the best way to the MVP.
American League since 2000
So, you may say that within the final 20 years, the participant who leads in OPS and WAR has received 10 of 12 occasions (83%), a quantity that’s more than likely going to alter provided that Ohtani is bound to steer the AL in these classes as effectively – and Betts is on observe to take action within the NL. To try this, and never win the award, would require a reasonably compelling narrative. Fortunately for Acuña, he has one – however so does Betts.
Acuña has 61 steals after two on Monday evening, essentially the most in baseball. Betts has 10. If we put that into our tremendous fancy science calculator, we’ll discover that Acuña has stolen over six occasions the bases that Betts has. It’s loads. It’s so many, and the explanations are numerous, as MLB.com’s David Adler dove into not too long ago. It’s not nearly pace; it’s additionally, it appears, about being smart sufficient to appreciate that the sport has modified and aggression is nice. This is clearly the most important promoting level of any “Acuña for MVP” case, that he’ll find yourself with practically unparalleled energy/pace numbers, seemingly ending with a historic 30/70 season. (A 40/70 season, which as soon as appeared potential, now appears unlikely, since he’s hit solely 9 homers for the reason that begin of July.)
But for Betts supporters, there are two simple counterpoints right here. The first is that Acuña has additionally been caught stealing greater than anybody, and making an out on the bases hurts greater than gaining a base helps, although that hardly closes the hole.
The second is the in-season transfer Betts made to (largely) second base and (often) shortstop, modifications necessitated by early-season accidents to Chris Taylor and Miguel Rojas and the July demotion of struggling rookie second baseman Miguel Vargas to the Minor Leagues. Every recreation Betts has performed within the infield is one which James Outman, David Peralta, or Jason Heyward (cumulative .766 OPS) have been in a position to play, versus extra of Vargas.
Entering Monday, Betts has appeared in 92 video games in proper discipline, 48 at second, and 16 at brief. Here is the complete and full listing in AL/NL historical past of gamers to seem in a minimum of 15 video games at second, brief, and any outfield place, in a season the place additionally they hit a minimum of 25 house runs:
Acuña posting a 30/70, or no matter he finally ends up at, is an extremely spectacular feat. Betts shifting into the center infield (and again to proper, and again once more, whereas hitting equally effectively in any respect three of them) is spectacular in its personal manner. Will voters be capable of take into account both one extra spectacular? It’s an inconceivable selection.
4) Defense metrics both favor Betts, or neither.
If we actually wish to invite controversy, let’s put this one on the market: Advanced metrics do not essentially agree on Betts, however they suppose that Acuña’s general defensive recreation has been merely round common this 12 months.
It’s not laborious to elucidate what Statcast sees within the six-time Gold Glover, Betts, and it’s not new. His once-elite pace has declined as he’s aged, and now, at 30, he’s in possession of precisely league-average pace, which might be seen in the truth that he’s now rated as extra good-than-great in baserunning. His protection has adopted swimsuit because the glove that was as soon as all-world (by 2018) grew to become strong (by 2022) and this 12 months is extra common.
What he might lose in defensive metrics, nonetheless, he may simply achieve again in spotlight reel performs:
There’s truly a extremely entertaining world wherein Betts wins the utility participant Gold Glove award, first handed out final season. But both manner, the Betts case right here is not a lot “beloved by defensive metrics” as it’s “this is not an area where Acuña has a clear advantage in an MVP case.”
5) So who actually has the sting proper now?
Both stars have a observe document of success and play for a first-place membership, so there’s not a lot of a differentiator there. Both have a slugging first baseman as their operating mate, so there’s a considerably comparable “vote-splitting” issue. If you care about context-dependent stats like win chance, they’re principally tied there, although Betts has a wholesome lead with runners in scoring place.
The proper reply right here is there isn’t any proper reply, not proper now, as August turns into September. You could make a robust case for both one – or actually Freeman, too – and also you wouldn’t be fallacious, as a result of they’re all deserving. Much like Ohtani vs. Aaron Judge final 12 months, when you have got two elite gamers having really excellent seasons, generally the one mistake you can also make just isn’t appreciating each on the expense of needing to decide on a winner.
As issues stand, Acuña has the benefit of getting held the lead all season lengthy and having accomplished completely nothing in any respect to squander that lead, which is highly effective. But on the identical time, it is clear Betts has an especially good case, as a result of that is how effectively he is performed. In September, it’s going to be an especially attention-grabbing race. But it’s, a minimum of, that. For the primary time, it is now an precise race.
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