New Pitch Uniqueness, Pt. 2: The Slambio (and a Ghost Fork replace)

This younger season has already launched us to a couple distinctive choices. Brent Honeywell Jr. throws a real screwball. Kodai Senga throws a ghost fork. But one fascinating pitch has flown considerably underneath the radar: Ian Hamilton’s slambio.

Maybe it’s due to the right-hander’s lack of a pedigree, or his standing as a non-roster invitee throughout spring coaching. After all, Hamilton is a 27-year-old reliever who struggled by means of accidents and ineffectiveness over the previous 4 years. At the identical time, he appeared like a discover as not too long ago as 2018, when he pitched to a 1.74 ERA and a pair of.44 FIP throughout 51.2 innings between Double- and Triple-A; he even averaged 96.7 mph on his heater in a quick eight-inning callup. The subsequent season, he appeared poised to play an integral half within the White Sox bullpen, however he was struck by a foul ball whereas rehabbing separate shoulder and head points stemming from a automobile accident. His poor luck almost introduced his profession to an finish, however he lastly started to really feel again to regular this offseason.

If you didn’t learn about Hamilton earlier than, I’ll be the primary to inform you that he has been a pleasure to observe this season, not solely due to his distinctive providing but additionally his comeback story, parlaying his rediscovered well being right into a spot within the Yankees’ pen, the place he’s discovered early-season success with a resurgent fastball (averaging 95.4) and the slambio. The latter pitch has been nothing in need of wonderful to this point: a ridiculous 29.9% swinging-strike charge and value 3.8 runs, which rank third and tied for fourth, respectively, among the many 85 sliders thrown at the least 50 occasions this 12 months (as of Saturday evening). The pitch’s unusually excessive charge of referred to as strikes, 15.6%, given its whiffiness, additionally locations it second among the many 85 sliders in CSW%.

But is it actually a slider? The title “slambio” comes from a mixture of “slider” and the Spanish phrase for changeup or change, “cambio.” Yet in reality, the pitch defies classification. There have been 4 completely different pitch varieties amongst its prime six comps from final 12 months’s set of 1,323 pitches that have been thrown at the least 100 occasions:

Zoom out a little bit additional, and also you’d discover {that a} cutter — Jackson Tetreault’s — ranks because the Nineteenth-closest comp to the slambio. But closest on what phrases?

Last week, to evaluate the ghost fork’s distinctiveness, I used Euclidean distance. It’s the method I used for the slambio as nicely, and the one relied upon in algebra to seek out the space between two coordinate pairs — it is dependent upon the Pythagorean Theorem, envisioning the road phase connecting the pairs because the hypotenuse of a triangle. This technique can be utilized for vectors with greater than two variables as nicely; in the identical method, you simply have to take the sum of the squared variations of every pair of values after normalizing them to be on the identical scale.

The variables I selected have been horizontal and vertical motion (inches), velocity (mph), spin charge (rpm), and spin axis (levels). I’ve been refining my mannequin because the Senga piece, however in doing so, I found an error in my normalization course of. Specifically, horizontal motion was weighted improperly; the imply for righties is detrimental, and I had it in as constructive. This didn’t change my backside line; I nonetheless discovered that pitches with bigger mean-of-closest-five Euclidean distances (i.e., pitches that have been extra distinct) tended to have increased swinging-strike and called-strike charges, outcomes that withstood a management for zone charge. Further, I nonetheless discovered that splitters and changeups with bigger mean-of-closest-five Euclidean distances tended to have increased swinging-strike charges, as did those who have been extra just like the ghost fork. Similarity to the ghost fork meant fewer referred to as strikes, however the providing is supposed as extra of a chase pitch anyhow, so this may imply the pitch is simply doing its job.

The one vital change wrought by the brand new mannequin, additionally due partially to having extra ghost forks within the dataset, was that the closest comps for the pitch have been completely different. This time, they have been all splitters (Mark Leiter Jr. throws a split-change), making the ghost fork’s efficiency relative to that class of pitches all of the extra necessary:

Two of those, García’s and Leiter’s choices, have been earlier prime comps. The relaxation are new, they usually inform an excellent whiffier story of what the ghost fork’s future holds. But regardless of its extra clear match within the splitter class, the refined mannequin truly paints the ghost fork as much more distinct. Previously, it was 92nd within the dataset of 1,323; now, it locations 53rd.

When it got here to the slambio, it was tougher to check it to only one pitch sort. It was most just like the common cutter on the horizontal aircraft and when it comes to spin axis, but it surely lined up extra carefully with the common splitter when it comes to drop, velocity, and spin charge:

Essentially, it is because Hamilton grips the baseball concerning the seams in the identical method that pitchers would grip a typical cutter. Further, he typically suppinates his wrist like pitchers often do to get reducing motion. Here’s a great take a look at it when he suppinates to the max:

Ian Hamilton’s “slambio.” Changeup grip and spin, slider intent and motion. pic.twitter.com/NMyeUpkMkY

— Lucas (@DBITLefty) April 7, 2023

Yet as you can inform from the clip, Hamilton holds the ball with all of his fingers on it like a changeup, and typically he even pronates his wrist to get extra changeup- or splitter-like motion:

Ian Hamilton’s “slambio” is FILTHY ?#YANKSonYES pic.twitter.com/BENhi2nBaP

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) April 4, 2023

On the entire, changeup-like and slider-like slambios put collectively, the refined mannequin noticed the pitch because the eighth-most distinct. Tyler Rogers nonetheless owned two of the highest 5 spots together with his four-seamer and slider as a result of his distinctive launch level; Devin Williams‘ airbender, Eli Morgan‘s slow change, and Dustin May‘s nasty curve marked new additions. Logan Webb’s diving changeup and Leiter’s split-change additionally squeaked in forward of the slambio, however Hamilton’s providing joins a small variety of pitches that actually defy categorization, offering additional proof of its uniqueness past simply its closest comps.

Is it actually truthful, although, to deal with the 2 flavors of slambio as one pitch? Consider the next:

Aside from the large quantity of seam-shifted wake that the slambio generates, you’ll discover two distinct slambio-colored areas on the clock. Put one other method, here’s a histogram of spin axis frequencies for the slambio:

The barely increased spin axes make the slambio appear to be a changeup or break up out of hand, the decrease or a lot increased spin axes make it appear to be a curve, and essentially the most frequent ones make it look cutter-like.

Yet the slambio truly has below-average motion customary deviation (each vertically and horizontally), which I calculated by wanting on the first 59 pitches — the variety of ghost forks thrown up to now — for each providing within the dataset so as to negate any impression of pattern dimension. It does, nonetheless, have above common spin-axis customary deviation, which is what the charts above are exhibiting.

Why doesn’t this end in extra motion selection? Well, as famous on the Baseball Savant spin course leaderboard, motion is set each by spin axis and spin charge. Think of spin axis because the course of the spin and spin charge because the magnitude. The slambio has a below-average spin charge customary deviation. At the identical time, spin charge customary deviation didn’t correlate considerably with swinging-strike or called-strike charge. Whether as a result of its affect on motion or deception, spin axis customary deviation did correlate with increased swinging-strike charges. When vary moderately than customary deviation, the slambio has an even-wider number of spin axes. Spanning 272 levels, its spin axis vary ranks 76th within the dataset. The small, separate bumps we noticed on the spin axis and course charts come into play right here.

Recall your geometry days now. A one-degree distinction can imply two very various things relying on the place you’re on the unit circle; that may imply going from 360 levels to 0 levels on the prime, and merely from 180 to 181 levels on the backside. In different phrases, this explains why curveball spin axes could be both very excessive or very low, and why linear customary deviation doesn’t actually make sense for analyzing the variation in spin axis. It wasn’t possible to issue this into the pitch comparability mannequin as a result of it induced extra scaling points, however I used to be in a position to apply it right here by calculating the round customary deviation. In this regard, the slambio had the 83rd-highest deviation within the dataset. Higher round customary deviations in spin axis correlated with each increased swinging strike and referred to as strike charges.

The ghost fork, then again, made up for what it lacked in spin axis deviation with above-average horizontal and vertical motion customary deviations. Higher motion deviations additionally correlated with increased swinging-strike and called-strike charges. For the entire necessary attributes for predicting swinging-strike charge, together with velocity deviation and excluding spin charge deviation because it didn’t correlate with something, I made a composite measure of deviation. The ghost fork rated nicely, rating 157th, however the slambio’s spin axis fortitude couldn’t overcome its lack of motion deviation, putting it 656th.

Even although the ghost fork carried out nicely right here, for now I’d say that for it and the slambio a very powerful issue for achievement is uniqueness, which is the place the 2 pitches actually stand out. And although my pitch comparability mannequin nonetheless has room to develop in optimally making use of spin axes non-linearly, each pitches are equally distinct within the different dimensions I used for the comps. Time will inform whether or not the pitches will stay profitable because the league turns into accustomed to them, diminishing the impression of their uniqueness, but when I needed to guess, the ghost fork may fare higher within the long-term just because Senga is more proficient at manipulating its motion. Hopefully each hurlers can stave off that decline, however within the meantime, let’s get pleasure from every of their fascinating pitches, in addition to Hamilton’s inspiring comeback story.