Nick Castellanos Is Mashing Once more

When I final checked in on Nick Castellanos, he was not in an excellent place. Though he was taking part in in a World Series with the Phillies, the group with which he signed a five-year, $100 million contract after the lockout led to March, his season had been a disappointment, and other than the occasional huge hit right here and highlight-reel catch there — the latter class of which had appeared notably unlikely given his defensive metrics — his postseason had been bleak as properly, proper all the way down to his making the ultimate out in Games 5 and 6 of the World Series because the Phillies fell to the Astros. Fortunately, after turning the web page on 2022, Castellanos has reemerged as one of many Phillies’ best hitters.

When the Phillies signed Castellanos, he was coming off the perfect season of his profession, having made his first All-Star group whereas setting across-the-board profession highs with a .309/.362/.576 line, 34 homers, a 139 wRC+, and three.6 WAR. He had opted out following the second yr of a four-year, $64 million cope with the Reds, however regardless of notable curiosity from a number of groups together with the Padres and Marlins, he didn’t safe a deal earlier than the lockout started in early December. Once he did lastly comply with phrases with the Phillies, eight days after the lockout ended, he felt as if he needed to rush into the season, adjusting to a brand new group, new metropolis, new fanbase, and new media… and with a brand new youngster on the way in which. Soon, Bryce Harper’s elbow damage pressured Castellanos to play proper area regularly as a substitute of DHing a big quantity of the time as initially deliberate.

Things didn’t go properly. Castellanos matched his career-worst 94 wRC+ by way of a .263/.305/.389 line, set profession lows with a 5.2% stroll fee and 6.6% barrel fee, and homered simply 13 instances. He was dreadful afield (-10 RAA, -8 DRS, -7.3 UZR) as properly, and whereas his -0.8 WAR didn’t make him the majors’ least beneficial place participant, not one of the 31 others with WARs that low or decrease — together with future Hall of Famers Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto — had simply set sail on a $100 million contract. Adding additional insult, within the postseason, Castellanos hit .185/.232/.246 in 69 plate appearances. Not even just a few memorable diving catches may offset that.

As he lately informed Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein, Castellanos started the offseason by regrouping with spouse Jess, confronting the anxieties he’d handled all season relating to his separation from his household (the couple lives in suburban New Jersey with their younger son, whereas Castellanos’ son from his first marriage lives in Miami), and conceding his personal lack of presence:

“There wasn’t balance to any of that during the year, and I could feel that. So that would stress me out, and everything on the baseball field is way harder to do when you’re stressed out.” When he was bodily at residence, he was mentally on the ballpark. When he was bodily on the ballpark, he was mentally at residence. He may by no means chill out.

In the spring, the 31-year-old Castellanos labored with hitting coach Kevin Long, making changes to maneuver nearer to the pitcher and the plate in an effort to assault sliders a bit earlier and resist chasing low-and-away breaking balls. He nonetheless turned up on Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS-driven checklist of bust candidates, and the Phillies’ proper area state of affairs made my checklist of the most important remaining holes on National League contenders.

While it’s far too early to say that he’s having the final snort, Castellanos is hitting a complete lot extra just like the participant the Phillies thought they had been getting: .315/.362/.498 with eight homers and a 132 wRC+, numbers that signify profession highs in batting common and on-base proportion in addition to his second-highest wRC+. Mind you, it hasn’t been the smoothest trip to get up to now. Castellanos acquired off to a scorching begin, batting .313/.364/.509 (136 wRC+) in April, however sank to .265/.303/.392 (92 wRC+) in May. He’s been red-hot in June (.442/.479/.721, 221 wRC+), admittedly whereas going through the Nationals, Tigers, and Dodgers, three groups whose employees ERAs rank among the many majors’ backside 10. Though he went a modest 3-for-12 towards the Dodgers this previous weekend, his fifth-inning RBI double off Michael Grove offered the go-ahead run in Friday evening’s 5-4 win, and his seventh-inning two-run homer off Nick Robertson took the starch out of Los Angeles’ comeback try in Sunday’s 7-3 win, serving to Philadelphia seize its third collection in a row. He adopted by going 2-for-4 with a stroll towards Arizona in a 9-8 loss on Monday evening.

Digging into the numbers, Castellanos has gotten a bit extra selective on the plate, however the change is hardly radical, at the very least if we’re going by his plate self-discipline stats. He’s chasing 39.7% of pitches outdoors the zone, down from final yr’s career-high 43.6% however above his profession mark of 38%. His total swing fee of 54.7% is down from final yr’s profession excessive of 57% as properly. Even so, he has a career-high 17.8% swinging strike fee (up practically one level from final yr) and a career-low 67.3% contact fee (down practically three factors from final yr). Though his stroll fee has improved from 5.2% to 7.2%, his strikeout fee has climbed from 23.3% to 24.4%. Where the distinction in Castellanos’ selectivity exhibits up extra is in a breakdown of his Statcast Swing/Take runs:

Castellanos is doing a a lot better job of creating swing selections on balls within the Shadow zone — outlined as 3.3 inches in both path of the rulebook strike zone. When he made contact final yr with such pitches, he hit .237 with a .316 slugging proportion, for a .251 wOBA; Statcast valued that at 19 runs under common, whereas he was an extra two runs under common on the balls he took in that space (with rounding, the sum of these is -20, not -21). This time round, he’s hitting .293 and slugging .504, for a .353 wOBA on balls within the Shadow zone, and a Stacast worth of two runs — an enormous enchancment. He’s additionally doing a a lot better job than final yr in the case of avoiding swinging at Waste pitches, these which are nowhere close to the zone, and is getting higher contact when he swings at pitches within the Heart zone:

Castellanos’ total high quality of contact has rebounded, at the same time as the 2 tendencies kind of appear to be offsetting one another:

Castellanos’ groundball fee is larger than in any season besides his 2013 rookie marketing campaign; he hadn’t been above 40% since till final yr. He typically hasn’t been all that productive on grounders given his declining pace (he’s within the forty sixth percentile this yr, down from the sixty fourth simply two years in the past), however this yr he’s hitting .301 and slugging .349 on grounders, up from .259 AVG/.265 SLG final yr and .256/.276 in 2021. Meanwhile, his pull fee is an eyelash forward of his career-high 44.9%, set in 2018. He’s hitting .453 and slugging .779 on such balls, a bit extra impactful than final yr (.446/.635) and extra consistent with 2021 (.411/.785) — with these balls occupying a bigger footprint; with 86 pulled batted balls up to now, he’s already greater than midway to his 2021 complete of 164.

As for Castellanos’ precise changes on the plate, these eyes don’t truly see a lot distinction in the place he’s standing relative to the plate once I evaluate middle area digicam photographs from Citizens Bank Park from final fall to this season, however that’s onerous to identify from a normal broadcast, with out overhead photographs. He has spoken of letting the ball journey and making contact deeper within the strike zone. While he’s nonetheless struggling to withstand the low-and-away breaking pitches, his Statcast numbers on sliders are evening and day relative to final yr, and likewise, he’s annihilating fastballs:

That’s a 14-run turnaround on sliders alone; he’s practically a win and a half higher in that division, although as you may see, he has but to get a success on a curveball this yr. Comparing his numbers on low-and-away sliders (these in Gameday zone 14), he hit and slugged .079 towards the 40 of them with which he made contact final yr, and is at .100/.100 on 21 of them this yr, with a .118 to .101 edge in xwOBA, however that’s not saying a lot, and including in curves and sweepers to the 2 seasons tilts the stability in direction of 2022 (.111 to .102 in wOBA). That stated, if I embody these within the backside outdoors nook of the zone (Gameday zone 9) towards all breaking pitches, he’s improved from .192 to .326 when it comes to slugging proportion, and from .155 to .228 when it comes to wOBA. Baby steps there, larger enhancements elsewhere.

It’s debatable whether or not these enhancements have carried over to the sector, the place by his personal admission to Apstein, Castellanos the outfielder would let his thoughts wander from his final at-bat to “the status of the country, the economy, global relations.” The depth of the postseason stored him locked in on the state of affairs, and he has discovered a technique to carry that over. “My focus was way higher just because the environment demanded it,” he informed Apstein extra lately. “And now that I’ve been able to feel that, I now can hold myself to that.”

That change hasn’t proven up on Castellanos’ outfield jumps (fifth percentile, down from seventh percentile), and whereas we should always at all times take small-sample defensive information with a grain of salt, he’s at -1 OAA this yr in comparison with -10 final yr, although his -4 DRS and -6.2 UZR, compiled in about half as many innings, truly venture to be as dangerous or worse. Still, his 1.3 WAR already represents a 2.1-win swing relative to final yr, and it’s clear that he’s in a a lot better place mentally. He might not be capable to supply the Phillies fairly as a lot geopolitical experience, however his rejuvenated bat greater than makes up for it.