No person informed this stolen base savant that it isn’t 1980 anymore

If the late 2010s have been dominated by strikeouts, and residential runs outlined baseball within the late 90s and early 2000s, the stolen base clearly had its second within the 80s. In that decade, steals outnumbered homers 5 occasions (1980-81, 1983, 1988-89), after that had occurred simply 3 times between 1940-79. Out of 18 particular person 80-SB seasons within the Live Ball Era (since 1920), 14 have been within the 80s, and Rickey Henderson, who had six of them, was the last decade’s most dear participant by WAR (67.8.)

But the stolen base craze was short-lived. The A’s, with whom Henderson spent 14 seasons, most decisively moved away from the working sport — from 2000-22, they’d the fewest steals in MLB, averaging simply 0.45 per sport. Oakland is to not be held solely accountable, after all. Homers have outnumbered steals league-wide in each season since 1993. That ratio peaked in 2019, when there have been 2.9 residence runs for each stolen base. Since Henderson and Vince Coleman every topped the 80-SB mark in 1988, that milestone has eluded even probably the most prolific of base-stealers. Jose Reyes’ 2007 season, through which he stole 78 bases, nonetheless stands as one of the best effort within the twenty first century.

The tides are altering once more in 2023, and the brand new pitch timer and restrict on pickoff makes an attempt have delivered the promised enhance in stolen bases. After MLB reached a 40-year low of 0.46 stolen bases per sport in 2021, that quantity is as much as 0.71 in 2023, the very best single-season determine since 1999. It’s secure to say that everybody is working extra, however one participant particularly is taking it to the acute — and, in an actual full-circle second, it’s one other A’s outfielder.

Esteury Ruiz was one in all 5 gamers acquired by the A’s within the three-team deal that despatched catcher Sean Murphy to the Braves. Of the eight gamers concerned in that blockbuster, the 24-year-old Ruiz, coming off a season through which he led all of Minor League Baseball with a mixed 85 stolen bases in 114 video games, was simply one of the vital intriguing. And whereas he was initially misplaced in Murphy’s red-hot begin, Ruiz has since carved out a distinct segment for himself in his first full Major League season, at the moment main baseball with 27 stolen bases by 55 video games, which might put him on tempo for … 79.5. Sounds promising.

While the quantity in and of itself is spectacular, it is the trail he has taken to 27 that actually stands out. Through his first 24 video games, he had 5 stolen bases. By that time in his season, MLB-leader Ronald Acuña Jr. had 13. Ruiz, if he have been to look in all 162 video games, was on tempo to complete the season with 33.

You’ve in all probability already began doing the mathematics. Across his final 30 video games, he has 22 steals. Prorated over a 162-game season, that’d be 118 — which, whereas not a sensible dream on this case, could be a single-season mark met or surpassed solely twice in AL/NL historical past, first by Lou Brock (118 SB in 1974) and later by Henderson (130 in 1982.)

One would naturally assume — particularly given his relative inexperience on the Major League degree — that Ruiz has traded his warning for recklessness. Not so. Ruiz has gone 22-for-25 (88%) as a part of his present run, and he has a 90% success price on stolen base makes an attempt general. He’s outperforming the league by an outrageous margin, at the same time as success charges throughout baseball are at an all-time excessive (79.5%.)

Not solely that, however from 1920 by 2022, there have been 1,283 particular person AL/NL seasons of 27+ stolen bases. Out of all of them, simply 60 (4.7%) coincided with a 90% stolen base proportion. But Ruiz has 27 stolen bases by May 28, so we could as properly contemplate his probabilities of becoming a member of an much more unique membership.

Seasons of 90+ SB%, by whole SB:
30+ SB: 46
40+ SB: 21
50+ SB: 6
60+ SB: 1

You’ll observe that velocity hasn’t even entered into this dialog, as a result of whereas it’s completely an element — his dash velocity (29.3 ft/sec) is tied for seventh within the Majors, not far off the “elite” benchmark of 30.0 — it’d be a disservice to Ruiz to border his baserunning prowess purely as a product of his uncooked potential. It’s early but, however it seems an terrible lot like Ruiz is ready to usher within the return of a sorely missed fashion of baseball, and watching all of it unfold in Oakland is just enhancing the expertise.