The Pirates are off to a surprisingly sizzling begin, successful six of their first 10 video games and sitting in second place within the NL Central. But that honest climate cloud has a darkish lining, because the workforce’s younger shortstop, Oneil Cruz, landed on the injured listing on Monday with a fractured ankle. While Cruz’s harm was (fortunately) effectively under Jason Kendall’s damaged ankle operating to first in 1999 on the gruesomeness scale, it was sufficient to require Sunday evening surgical procedure. The early timetable for Cruz signifies that his 2023 season isn’t essentially completed, however it’ll doubtless be 4 months, or someday in mid-August, till he’s more likely to be again in enjoying kind.
Cruz’s harm got here on a literal bang-bang play, one which led to some fisticuffs, or at the very least some minor shoveicuffs. With runners on the corners and no outs in a 1–0 recreation within the sixth, Ke’Bryan Hayes hit a bouncer off of White Sox starter Michael Kopech. Yoán Moncada at third was shallow sufficient that buying and selling a run for a double play wasn’t actually attainable; the play at house was the simpler one. What precisely occurred is a minor controversy, however the fundamental information are that after operating on the skin of the foul line, Cruz took an inside line as he approached the plate, appeared to locate the dust, and careened into catcher Seby Zavala knees first.
I don’t get the impression from the play that Cruz meant to take out Zavala; in the event you have been going for the Nineteen Seventies-style demolition derby smash that seemed nice on spotlight packages and poor in CT scans, you don’t deliberately placed on the brakes after which type of fall into the catcher clumsily. You don’t see a whole lot of NFL coaches advising their linebackers to deal with with their knees. Zavala was mic’d up and immediately supplied a number of not-so-minced oaths, however from his viewpoint, it’s exhausting accountable him. From his perspective within the warmth of the second, a runner altered his path barely to make contact, although he left house for a very good slide, and virtually groined him with a few knees. It wasn’t fairly as dangerous a slide try as Adley Rutschman‘s Tekken-style spin kick into Christian Arroyo’s head, however it was up there. Carlos Santana then got here out to have phrases with Zavala, which resulted within the benches emptying. Control of the state of affairs was restored shortly, nonetheless, and we had no Royal Rumble-style brawling. I’m not right here to evaluate conduct, although, at the very least except you vote Szymborski to be the Grand Inquisitor of Baseball within the 2024 election.
It can be foolish to recommend there’s ever a very good time for a severe harm, however the damaged ankle comes at a vital time in Cruz’s profession. He’s one of the thrilling younger gamers within the recreation, and somebody the Pirates hope to develop into a foundational expertise for the franchise (at the very least till he’s paid as such), however he’s additionally not a completed product in the best way gamers like Rutschman or Julio Rodríguez are. An influence lefty bat isn’t one thing you sometimes see from a shortstop, and Cruz has the potential to be a .200 remoted energy man on the place. In at the very least 5,000 plate appearances, solely 5 shortstops in historical past have been .200 ISO hitters: Alex Rodriguez, Ernie Banks, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jose Valentin. You additionally doesn’t see a 6-foot-7 shortstop all that always, both. That tantalizing upside is why the Pirates are ready to be affected person and see if Cruz can work out his flaws. His protection at brief is decidedly a piece in progress, and the truth that he’s ludicrously quick for a person his dimension — in 2022, he ranked twelfth out of 582 gamers with 10 alternatives in dash velocity — is making up for lots of sins. At the plate, his energy has to compensate for the truth that he’s nonetheless connecting with pitches by coincidence extra usually than intent.
This was purported to be the 12 months during which Cruz began 140–150 video games at shortstop for the Pirates, and within the early going, he seemed to be making progress, at the very least on the plate. He had already walked seven instances in 9 video games, a price almost double what any projection system had for him getting into the season. And whereas 9 video games isn’t sufficient to get too enthusiastic about his enhancements in touch price (66% to 71%) and zone-swing price (54% to 63%), the truth that these numbers have been transferring in the correct route was a optimistic takeaway as effectively.
You would possibly wince at seeing Valentin’s title on that listing of power-hitting shortstops a number of paragraphs in the past, however he’s what makes Cruz so fascinating. Valentin by no means actually solved his flaws as an offensive participant, however he grew to become a stable defensive one, and a 30-WAR profession is one that ought to by no means trigger him to have any sleepless nights questioning “what if?” Before the season, ZiPS noticed Cruz as a 300-homer hitter over his profession with almost 2,000 complete hits, a triple-slash of .246/.321/.436 and 39 WAR. Like Valentin’s profession, that’s one which he could possibly be pleased with, even when the denouement wouldn’t contain a speech in upstate New York on a sizzling July day. And with sudden development in a single space or one other, it could possibly be much more. I talked about it in my breakouts piece, during which Cruz was featured, however a five-percentage level enchancment in his contact price is sufficient to create a domino impact — the nice sort — in his projections. An sudden five-point enchancment ends in a projection of 60 WAR and 450 homers, with batting averages within the .260s as a substitute of the .240s, and that’s the type of factor that might find yourself with that journey to Cooperstown.
Just what the Pirates will do with Cruz when he comes again gained’t be recognized till the summer time. While they’re aggressive for the time being, they’re more likely to be safely under .500 by the point he has a return date, and I don’t count on them to be motivated to get him again within the lineup as quickly as humanly attainable if it has destructive repercussions for him long-term. I don’t count on he’ll be shut down for the season; it’s method too early to throw within the towel on an essential developmental 12 months. But I wouldn’t be stunned if Cruz’s return is extra a September cameo than a six-week dash. There don’t seem like any tendon points (or at the very least the Pirates haven’t talked about it), so the hope is actually that this harm gained’t sluggish him down sufficient that they should 86 the plan to maintain him at brief in the interim. Sure, the Padres moved Fernando Tatis Jr. off the place, however his harm historical past is extra in depth than Cruz’s, and the Friars produce other very high-end expertise on the place.
Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae are the most definitely candidates to fill the shortstop place till Cruz returns, and whilst you don’t wish to see it occur because of this, the Pirates should benefit from the chance to check out different gamers as effectively. Mark Mathias was referred to as as much as take Cruz’s spot on the roster, and I hope he will get an enormous chunk of the enjoying time at second base. A 3rd-rounder picked by Cleveland in 2015, he was promoted shortly and initially flamed out in Double-A however made progress in his second try in Akron, hitting .266/.355/.442 in 2019. He was one of many older fringe prospects who actually suffered from a misplaced minor league season in 2020; the Brewers did give him time on their taxi squad, however he managed solely 36 plate appearances for the 12 months. His 2021 was then ruined by a torn labrum. Healthier in 2022, Mathias hit .322/.422/.518 mixed in two Triple-A stops and .247/.319/.506 with six homers in 91 plate appearances for the Brewers and Rangers.
Mathias has performed some shortstop, however he’s a bit stretched on the place and he’s extra a second baseman/third baseman who additionally has some outfield expertise, giving him utility participant worth for a workforce that has a viable spare shortstop. ZiPS was probably the most optimistic about his bat within the preseason, with a projected wRC+ of 103, however all of the projection methods noticed him as somebody who may contribute on the main league stage. He turns 29 in August, so he doesn’t have a whole lot of time, however I hope the Bucs get a very good have a look at him within the subsequent 4 months; if he works out, they’ll have 4 extra years after 2023 earlier than he can develop into a free agent.
Cruz’s harm is a testomony to the occasional cruelty of the Baseball Gods. Hopefully, they’ll be merciful this time, and return a possible star comparatively unscathed. At least no one can sensibly blame this harm on the World Baseball Classic!
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com