Choices, Choices: Cody Bellinger Returns to the Cubs

For as robust as his 2023 marketing campaign had been, and for as properly positioned as he was on this winter’s market, Cody Bellinger‘s free agency was always hampered by questions of sustainability. His debut season with the Cubs followed two unsettlingly bad years with the Dodgers, and the metrics underlying last season’s resurgence have been comparatively modest relative to his manufacturing, elevating the likelihood if not the chance of regression. In gentle of these points, at the same time as he positioned third on our Top 50 Free Agents record heading into the offseason and reportedly sought a contract as excessive as $250 million, it appeared fairly possible he’d come away with significantly much less. He did, agreeing to return to the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million deal, one which incorporates opt-outs after the primary two seasons, and one which was nonetheless pending a bodily as of this writing.

Effectively, this can be a pillow contract, negotiated by the agent who created the time period, Scott Boras. The 28-year-old Bellinger will get the chance to indicate that his 2023 efficiency was no fluke, with two probabilities earlier than his age-30 season to safe a a lot larger payday. He’s assured $30 million in 2024, with salaries of $30 million in ’25 and $20 million in ’26 if he hasn’t exercised his opt-outs, in accordance with ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

Bellinger got here to the Cubs after an eventful 10-year run within the Dodgers’ group, one which started when the son of former utilityman Clay Bellinger was drafted within the fourth spherical out of an Arizona highschool in 2013. He hit 39 residence runs whereas successful NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2017, and smacked 47 homers two years later whereas taking residence the NL MVP award. His well timed hitting and spectacular fielding in the course of the 2020 postseason helped the Dodgers to their first championship since 1988, however a kind of well timed hits precipitated his fall. Celebrating what proved to be the decisive residence run in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS towards the Braves, the exuberant Bellinger dislocated his proper (non-throwing) shoulder after bashing forearms with teammate Enrique Hernández. He underwent arthroscopic labrum surgical procedure after the World Series, began slowly in spring coaching, after which within the fourth sport of the season suffered a hairline fracture in his left fibula, knocking him out for eight weeks. Unable to search out his rhythm as he recovered from each shoulder and leg points, he hit a grotesque .165/.240/.302 (47 wRC+) with -1.0 WAR in 350 plate appearances, although he confirmed indicators of life in the course of the playoffs when he adopted a shortened swing with decrease hand placement; he hit .353/.436/.471 (146 wRC+) throughout 39 plate appearances in 12 postseason video games. While he bought off to a strong begin in 2022, he couldn’t keep it regardless of endlessly tinkering along with his swing. Exceptional protection in heart discipline saved him within the lineup, however he hit simply .210/.265/.389 (83 wRC+) with 1.8 WAR, and was nontendered following the season.

Less than three weeks later, Bellinger agreed to a one-year deal with the Cubs, one which paid him $12.5 million for 2023 with a $1 million bonus for successful NL Comeback Player of the Year honors (which he did) and a $5 million buyout on a $25 million mutual choice for ’24. He declined his finish of the choice in addition to the $20.325 million qualifying provide he acquired, and entered the market as the highest free agent place participant, behind solely pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani and pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto on our record.

For Bellinger, final 12 months’s change of surroundings proved to be simply what the physician ordered. Reuniting with Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly and assistant Johnny Washington, each of whom he had labored with within the Dodgers’ system, Bellinger targeted on adjusting his mechanics, significantly close to his hand placement and again hip, permitting him to make use of his decrease physique higher. He additional tailored his strategy by pulling the ball with much less frequency than at any time since his rookie season, and shortening his swing with two strikes to deal with contact. The outcome was his greatest season since 2019, as he hit .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers and 20 steals in 130 video games — he missed practically 4 weeks with a left knee contusion — whereas reducing his strikeout fee from 27.3% to fifteen.6%. Coupled with strong protection in heart discipline, his 4.1 WAR tied for Twentieth within the NL and was the second-best exhibiting of his profession.

Bellinger’s intent is price noting when digging into his underlying metrics, as he sacrificed some energy in trade for contact en path to the bottom exit velocity, barrel fee, and hard-hit fee of his profession:

Bellinger’s barrel fee positioned in simply the twenty seventh percentile, his exit velo within the twenty second percentile, and his hard-hit fee within the tenth percentile. He outdid his anticipated slugging share by 91 factors, and his anticipated wOBA by 43 factors; each gaps ranked third within the majors amongst batting title qualifiers (502 PA). On the opposite hand, his .279 AVG and .312 wOBA with two strikes ranked second and seventh within the majors, thanks largely to his consistency in gathering hits regardless of mushy contact, a subject that MLB.com’s Mike Petriello and our personal Esteban Rivera each investigated.

All of that created one thing of a puzzle for Bellinger’s suitors — most prominently the Blue Jays (thought-about the favorites to signal him as of mid-December) and Giants, with the Mariners and Yankees additionally related to him through rumors. Bellinger’s deal all the time appeared unlikely to strategy the recent air of the $200 million-plus Borasphere, however in our Top 50 train, Ben Clemens projected him to get a six-year, $150 million contract, and our crowdsource anticipated a six-year, $144 million one. Other retailers went even increased.

As the Blue Jays dragged their ft this winter, the Giants turned to Jung Hoo Lee, and the Cubs refused to behave like a large-market group, Bellinger’s anticipated market by no means totally materialized, with the aforementioned points undoubtedly enjoying an element, as properly. By ZiPS, he did properly to get as a lot as he did:

ZiPS initiatives only a three-year, $70 million contract for that forecast, per Dan Szymborski, although maybe that’s not shocking on condition that Bellinger has had only one good season out of the final three. Based on the percentile breakdowns, it seems the system offers him solely a couple of 10% to twenty% probability of matching or exceeding final 12 months’s efficiency:

Bellinger in all probability doesn’t need to match his 2023 numbers to justify opting out, and he does have two probabilities to determine when to enter the market once more. Still, a mediocre 2024 adopted by a robust ’25 would in all probability go away groups with comparable inquiries to those they confronted this winter.

As for a way he suits into the Cubs, the important thing phrase is flexibility. The group already had Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, each getting into their age-29 seasons and on multi-year offers, set for the outfield corners. Prior to Bellinger’s re-signing, Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Twentieth-ranked prospect on our Top 100 record, appeared prone to take over because the Chicago’s common heart fielder. A 2020 first-round decide acquired from the Mets within the Javier Báez commerce on the ’21 deadline, Crow-Armstrong hit a mixed .283/.365/.511 (127 wRC+) in 73 video games at Double-A Tennessee and 34 video games at Triple-A Iowa. He went simply 0-for-14 with three walks and two sacrifice hits in a cup of espresso with the Cubs, although to be truthful, he began simply three of the 13 video games during which he appeared. He’s thought-about an elite heart fielder who’s fearless on the basepaths and may produce not less than common energy. “If he can plug that hole over time, he’ll be a five-tool superstar,” wrote our prospect group of Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin. “More likely, he’ll have some 20-25 homer seasons amid a ton of strikeouts and a low OBP, with peak years resembling Mike Cameron’s (though almost certainly not to that level of annual consistency).”

Given Crow-Armstrong’s age (he turns 22 on March 25) and modest quantity of upper-level expertise, it all the time appeared attainable that he would begin the season within the minors earlier than rejoining the Cubs. Now it might seem much more possible. If he hits his method again to the majors in a rush, the Cubs may use him in heart discipline and play Bellinger at first base, the place lefty-swinging rookie Michael Busch was slated to be the starter or not less than the lengthy half of a platoon with righty Patrick Wisdom. The 26-year-old Busch, no. 84 on our prospect record, is taken into account a bat-only prospect who final performed first base recurrently at North Carolina, and who could also be higher suited to DH responsibility. Alternately, Bellinger has expertise in each left discipline (315.1 innings, although none since 2018) and proper (989 innings, the majority of them in 2019), and Happ has expertise at each defensive place besides shortstop and catcher, although he hasn’t performed the infield since 2021, when he totaled 36 innings, largely at second base. Also within the class of transferring components is Christopher Morel, who final 12 months noticed time in any respect three outfield positions plus second base, shortstop, and third base; he was projected to get the majority of the work at DH but in addition to be within the third base combine together with Nick Madrigal. Suffice to say that new supervisor Craig Counsell can have choices for how you can piece his lineup collectively, and {that a} clearer image might emerge throughout spring coaching.

Via our Depth Charts projections, right here’s a comparability of how the scenario regarded earlier than the signing and instantly after, when it comes to estimated plate appearances:

In phrases of general enjoying time, the true loser of the Bellinger deal is Mike Tauchman, a succesful heart fielder who hit .252/.363/.377 (107 wRC+) final 12 months, with Crow-Armstrong, Madrigal, and Wisdom additionally dropping substantial time. Keep in thoughts that every one of that is primarily based on greatest guesses simply as exhibition season has opened, and earlier than the Cubs have even confirmed the deal. Loads may nonetheless change.

Particularly with the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, and Reds every projected to win between 79 and 85 video games, the NL Central is anticipated to be a dogfight. Any impactful addition might be the distinction between reaching the postseason — one thing the Cubs haven’t finished since 2020 — and staying residence. By bringing again Bellinger, the group has given itself a greater shot at enjoying in October with out assuming an enormous long-term danger. Bellinger, for his half, will get to return to a snug scenario with a contending group, whereas additionally figuring out that he can play his method into a much bigger contract. It will likely be fascinating to see how this all unfolds.