Patrick Bailey is Instantly the Giants’ Catcher of the Future — and the Current

The Joey Bart Era, such because it was, could have already got resulted in San Francisco. Struggling to fill the footwear of Buster Posey — admittedly, a ridiculously tall job for anybody — the 26-year-old backstop strained his groin in mid-May; by the point he was wholesome sufficient to return, the Giants had shifted their focus to a youthful catcher they had been even happier with in Patrick Bailey. After ending final season in High-A, the 24-year-old Bailey rocketed by the minors this spring, and upon arrival has hit and fielded properly sufficient to assist flip the Giants’ season round.

Recall that Posey retired abruptly after the 2021 season, at age 34. The transfer shocked the complete baseball world, not simply the Giants, who had simply gained 107 video games and deliberate to debate retaining him upon the expiration of his nine-year, $169 million contract, whether or not by selecting up his $22 million possibility or by hammering out a longer-term deal. Yet Posey, who had opted out of the 2020 season so as to spend time along with his household, which had expanded to incorporate two adopted twin daughters who had been born prematurely, felt the pull of dwelling. Having checked each field for a Hall of Fame resumé besides the padded profession totals, the unhappy decline, and the lengthy goodbye, he hung up his masks.

The Giants pivoted to Bart, who had appeared just like the inheritor obvious when he was taken with the second decide of the 2018 draft out of Georgia Tech. In Posey’s absence, he had completed the majority of the work behind the plate within the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, however his inexperience confirmed, and he spent most of ’21 within the minors. While he started the 2022 marketing campaign with promise by homering off Sandy Alcantara on Opening Day, he was optioned to Triple-A Sacramento in early June. Though he performed considerably higher upon returning a month later, he completed with only a .215/.296/.364 (90 wRC+) line and an astronomical 38.5% strikeout fee in 297 PA, with -3.7 framing runs and a meager 0.6 WAR.

After making a two-inning cameo on Opening Day of this season, Bart landed on the injured checklist resulting from a mid-back pressure. He moreover missed time in late April resulting from proper groin tightness, then was recognized with a Grade 1 left groin pressure in mid-May. In between the entire accidents, he hit simply .231/.286/.295 (63 wRC+) in 84 PA; whereas he trimmed his strikeout fee to 25%, he walked simply twice (2.4%). He began 22 of the workforce’s 43 video games earlier than touchdown on the IL a second time, with Roberto Pérez making 5 begins earlier than struggling a season-ending rotator cuff tear and rookie Blake Sabol beginning 16 video games.

Enter the 6-foot-1, 210-pound Bailey, who was chosen with the thirteenth decide of the 2020 draft out of North Carolina State. He entered final season at no. 76 on our Top 100 checklist as a 50 FV prospect however was downgraded resulting from his early-season struggles at High-A Eugene, the place he had completed the 2021 season. While he completed with a decent .225/.342/.420 (113 wRC+) line with 12 homers, he missed the Top 100 — not simply ours, however each main prime prospect checklist of word all through the business. Baseball America, for instance, ranked him twenty seventh amongst Giants prospects, calling him a plus defender with “sound footwork and quick release” but additionally “a switch-hitter with an inconsistent approach [who] gets in trouble when he starts chasing power.” The publication noticed his ceiling as that of “a defense-minded backup catcher.”

It wasn’t till final week that Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin printed the Giants’ Top 49 Prospects checklist right here. Ranking Bailey third behind Luis Matos and Kyle Harrison, they started the entry with a mea culpa: “Time to eat double crow here, as Bailey was just outside the Top 100 when he was drafted and throughout 2021 before we rounded his FV grade down during an uneven 2022. When we put together the lengthy Giants Imminent Big Leaguers piece, Bailey was not included, as we didn’t anticipate he’d spend just two weeks each at Richmond and Sacramento before the club decided to insert him as their primary big league catcher.”

Indeed, Bailey moved rapidly this spring, hitting .333/.400/.481 (143 wRC+) with two homers in 60 PA in Double-A and .216/.317/.353 (61 wRC+) in 60 PA at Triple-A. He received the decision when Bart hit the IL, debuted with a late-inning cameo on May 19, and went 1-for-3 in his first begin the subsequent day, singling off the Marlins’ Tanner Scott. The day after that, he clubbed a solo homer off Jesús Luzardo and added one other RBI later in a 7–5 win. Every week after his debut, on May 26, he went 4-for-5 with three RBI in a 15–1 rout of the Brewers; three days later, he went 3-for-5 with a double, a homer, and 4 RBI in a 14–4 shellacking of the Pirates.

The hits hold coming, and the Giants hold successful. Bailey is batting .302/.336/.512 for a 128 wRC+ — second on the workforce behind LaMonte Wade Jr.’s 139 — with 5 homers in 139 PA. The Giants, who had been 20–23 earlier than he was referred to as up, are 27–17 since; they gained 9 straight from June 11 to 21 and shortly after pulled to inside 1.5 video games of the NL West lead. They’ve since fallen again to 3rd place within the division behind the Diamondbacks (50–37) and Dodgers (48–38) and are three video games out at this writing, although they’re in a digital tie with the Phillies (46–39) for the third NL Wild Card spot.

The one win in the course of the workforce’s current 1–6 skid was one thing of a Bailey showcase. Last Friday (June 30), within the eighth inning of the opener of a three-game sequence in opposition to the Mets at Citi Field, he hit a 432-foot three-run homer to heart area off David Robertson, turning a 4–2 deficit right into a 5–4 lead. With heat-throwing nearer Camilo Doval issuing a one-out stroll within the ninth, Bailey then made an ideal throw to nab pinch-runner Starling Marte making an attempt to steal, thus ending the Mets’ franchise-record streak of 35 straight stolen base makes an attempt. On the subsequent pitch, Doval struck out Brandon Nimmo to protect the win.

“That was as good as it gets,” supervisor Gabe Kapler mentioned afterwards. “That was superstar-caliber stuff.”

Getting again to our prospect workforce’s analysis of Bailey: whereas placing a 40 current and 50 future grade on his total protection and a forty five grade on his throwing, they famous, “He is a skilled one-knee’d receiver, great at beating the pitch to the spot in all parts of the zone, often subtly shifting his body to help him receive borderline pitches with strike-stealing stillness.” The numbers again this up; by FanGraphs’ measure, Bailey is 4.8 runs above common in framing in simply 302 innings behind the plate, and by Statcast’s measure, he’s 4 runs above common. He’s completed an amazing job in opposition to the working sport, with pop instances to second base averaging 1.87 seconds. He’s thrown out 12 out of 31 stolen base makes an attempt for a 39% success fee, almost double the league common of 20%; Statcast charges him as two runs above common in that division, however one run beneath common in blocking.

On the offensive facet, whereas Bailey hit properly from either side of the plate in school, he struggled mightily in opposition to lefthanders within the minors, albeit in a relatively small pattern, a median of lower than 50 PA per yr. “A natural righty, he viewed the splits as being in part because of a lack of opportunity — he had just 61 at-bats against lefties last year — and made adjustments this spring to his swing and approach,” wrote NBC Sports’ Alex Pavlovic. “The Giants sent Bailey off to Double-A with a plan to spend more time on his right-handed swing during batting practice since he won’t get as many opportunities in games.”

The observe appears to be paying off, as a result of Bailey has not solely been efficient in opposition to lefties inside a really small pattern, however he’s additionally put up insane numbers because of a BABIP that’s almost double what it was within the minors — and fairly unsustainable. Those have propped up a righty efficiency that’s barely above the league common for a catcher (86 wRC+) however hardly distinctive, with strikeout and stroll charges that fee as considerations.

Contact-wise, Bailey’s received sufficient whole batted ball occasions that he’s previous the purpose the place the numbers begin to stabilize. While the person platoon splits haven’t totally reached that time, his precise numbers from either side are near his anticipated numbers — and fairly sturdy:

Bailey actually is hitting the ball a lot more durable from the appropriate facet of the plate, not that anybody ought to count on him to take care of Rogers Hornsby’s 1924 numbers.

Getting again to the stroll and strikeout stuff: Bailey’s charges are out of stability, however it’s not as if his 44.7% swing fee, 29.1% chase fee, or 9.9% swinging-strike fee stand out as egregious or as marks that may’t be hooked up to affordable manufacturing. Consider, for instance, this checklist of gamers who’re inside 0.2 proportion factors of his total swing fee, two factors of his chase fee, and one level of his swinging-strike fee:

Those are largely productive hitters, and the most important distinction appears to be that they’re taking fewer referred to as strikes than Bailey en path to extra balanced stroll and strikeout charges. But once more, it’s not like he’s terribly passive or aggressive. Note his -1 run ranking within the Statcast shadow zone; he’s taking barely extra pitches in that zone than the league common (52% to 47%) and barely greater than common within the coronary heart of the zone (31% to twenty-eight%) as properly:

Anyway, for now as he’s making his manner across the majors for the primary six weeks of his profession, Bailey has been exceptionally productive. I might warning that whereas he seems to have taken a big leap ahead from his minor league stats and pre-2023 scouting profile, the Posey comparisons he’s drawn — comparisons to a franchise pillar and future Hall of Famer (severely, struggle me) who started his profession by successful NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2010 — are excessive. “Hey, let’s pump the brakes a little bit,” mentioned Kapler in response to that line of debate previous to Bailey’s massive sport in New York. “It’s a month into his career. Let’s let things unfold.”

As for what this implies for Bart, he hasn’t precisely been Pipped out of a job given his struggles, however it’s powerful to see him getting it again. For the close to future, he could also be blocked by Sabol, a Rule 5 decide from the Pirates who’s hitting .251/.313/.438 (104 wRC+) and placing up first rate defensive numbers whereas splitting time between catching (26 begins and a complete of 228 innings) and left area (183.2 innings). With his versatility, the Giants might carry three catchers, however doing so solely to have Bart sit on the bench as an alternative of working to enhance at Sacramento in all probability isn’t in his finest curiosity. For the long term, he could also be a change-of-scenery candidate — a participant whose worth is at the moment on the decrease finish of its vary however one who was beforehand judged to have the makings of an on a regular basis catcher, who has fewer than 500 PA underneath his belt, and who nonetheless has 5 years of membership management remaining. If he doesn’t get one other look in San Francisco, anyone on the market will give him a shot.

As the Giants strategy the August 1 commerce deadline, it will likely be fascinating to see if Bart’s identify comes up as they store to fill their wants. In the meantime, we should always in all probability count on Bailey to chill off and will hope that people cool it with the Posey comparisons; he casts a protracted sufficient shadow over the Giants’ group as it’s. Nonetheless, it’s thrilling for any rookie to reach, put his declare on a beginning spot, and assist flip his workforce’s fortunes. Let’s see the place Bailey goes with this subsequent.