Pondering a Doable Pete Alonso Commerce

The thought of the Mets buying and selling Pete Alonso would have appeared positively preposterous six months in the past. Coming off a 101-win season, the Mets dedicated to a half-billion {dollars} in new contracts over the winter, getting into the season with the costliest staff in historical past. But quite than battle the Braves for NL East supremacy, they’ve as an alternative been preventing to remain forward of the Nationals for fourth place, a mêlée they’re at the moment shedding. The Mets have already traded off a few of their veterans, together with each Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, so the thought of parting with Alonso doesn’t appear fairly as farfetched because it as soon as did.

There have been some sports radio rumblings about Alonso-related clubhouse points, however I are inclined to not take these issues too critically. And even when I did, it’s not a stunning growth within the context of a wreck of a season; until you’re the late Seventies Yankees, successful tends to make folks get alongside higher. What I do take critically are the reviews from Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic. No deal was shut, however the Mets reportedly talked to a minimum of the Brewers and Cubs across the commerce deadline, attending to the purpose the place the gamers to be despatched to New York had been mentioned.

The information on the bottom, divorced from any particular rumors, additionally make such a commerce believable this winter. Players a yr from free company are steadily mentioned in trades, and whereas there’s no cause to suppose the Mets are going to tear the staff all the way down to a small, long-term core, a 75-win season — and that’s provided that the Mets play respectable baseball in September — makes some form of short-term retool fairly potential. In that case, buying and selling the unsigned Alonso for gamers who can contribute previous 2024 is an thought with appreciable benefit.

When considering a commerce, the primary query is: What form of participant is Alonso prone to be in 2024? The first baseman is having a bizarre season, with a Mendoza-line BABIP (.205), however he’s nonetheless hitting for energy. I’m not really apprehensive concerning the BABIP — a quantity that low is nearly by no means an actual long-term attribute for a place participant with even the teensiest quantity of competence on the plate. After all, pitchers throughout the majors since 2018 mixed for a .239 BABIP with the bases empty. What does trigger me a little bit of concern is that Alonso has been much more passive on the plate and his contact fee has nonetheless gone down, even with stingier pitch choice. But hey, there’s a projection system on my pc, so I would as effectively ask it:

If Alonso had been a free agent this offseason, ZiPS would counsel a six-year, $130 million provide. While that pales compared to among the largest contracts of final winter, these had been primarily given to shortstops and to final yr’s AL MVP, Aaron Judge. It’s a bit lower than what both Matt Olson or Freddie Freeman acquired, however each had higher projections once they signed than Alonso does now. Alonso isn’t a free agent, in fact, and ZiPS would knock one other $8 million-$10 million off that deal due to the season of arbitration remaining. I truthfully don’t count on Alonso to significantly entertain a six-year, $120 million provide. This query isn’t simply theoretical; per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the Mets have a minimum of mentioned a contract extension with Alonso just lately:

“The Mets made an offer that, while it certainly wasn’t insulting, wasn’t one good enough to convince Alonso to forego free agency,” stated a supply with data of the talks. “But the offseason is a long one. There’s no urgency to get something done right now.”

If you assume that Alonso’s subsequent staff will get $11 million plus some hard-to-quantify quantity of worth from having the primary shot at extending Alonso or netting a potential qualifying provide compensation choose, that will put the return for Alonso someplace within the vary of a 50 FV prospect. Just to offer some context of what a 50 FV means, the present 50s on the Cubs and Brewers, two groups which have reportedly talked with the Mets, are James Triantos, Sal Frelick, Kevin Alcántara, Ben Brown, and Jordan Wicks. That’s to not say that every one or any of those gamers could be provided in an Alonso commerce, solely that that is the extent of prospect the Mets might count on beneath these assumptions.

But these assumptions may not be 100% right. Alonso’s WAR projection isn’t an amazing one, however proper now it’s additionally the third-best in ZiPS for the 2024 season amongst first basemen. The high two are the aforementioned Freeman and Olson, and so they’re each within the class of unobtainium for groups desirous to improve at first base:

If your staff completely wants a primary baseman, you in all probability can’t get one higher than Alonso this winter. While that’s actually not sufficient to spark a severe dialogue for prospects like Jackson Chourio on the negotiating desk — if Chourio had really been provided, Alonso would at the moment be carrying a cap with the very best emblem in baseball historical past on it — it’s probably sufficient to web one other lower-level prospect or two if the Mets discover simply the appropriate purchaser.

Trading Pete Alonso beforehand appeared unthinkable, however coming off an infinite tire hearth of a yr, the one factor the Mets really can’t afford is a verboten thought. Sure, this might all be a moot level in a month if the Mets and Alonso conform to a mutually helpful contract extension, however failing that, the staff ought to take the thought of buying and selling their first baseman very critically this offseason.