Qualified Catchers Are the Hottest New Development of the Season

Earlier this week, my colleague Ben Clemens wrote about Marcus Semien and his spectacular sturdiness. As Ben identified, Semien leads the majors in plate appearances during the last 5 seasons, which has helped him to be one of the vital helpful gamers within the recreation regardless of his relative scarcity of standout expertise.

The most efficient catcher throughout that very same time interval has been J.T. Realmuto, who leads his fellow backstops by greater than 5 WAR. He’s additionally means forward of the pack with 2,147 plate appearances; Willson Contreras ranks second with 1,879. On the defensive facet, the Phillies catcher is equally outpacing his friends. He has performed 4,084 innings behind the dish, 397.2 greater than Martín Maldonado in second place. That’s the equal of 44 full video games, or Austin Hedges‘ 2023 season to date. Much like Semien, Realmuto encapsulates the popular aphorism “availability is the best ability.” He isn’t one of the best defender or one of the best offensive catcher, however he’s good at every little thing he does, and he does it extra typically than anybody else.

This yr, nevertheless, Realmuto has some competitors on the supply entrance. He nonetheless leads the league in defensive innings and plate appearances as a catcher, however he has extra firm on the leaderboards than standard. Thus far in 2023, almost midway into the season, 13 (13!) catchers are certified for the batting title:

You’d should go all the way in which again to 1891 to seek out the final season wherein 13 catchers completed with the requisite variety of plate appearances to qualify. Even then, it solely occurred as a result of the Cincinnati Kelly’s Killers shut their doorways partway by means of the season, and the Milwaukee Brewers (no, not these Milwaukee Brewers) turned a serious league franchise with solely 36 video games left to play. Their catcher, John Grim, technically certified for the batting title with simply 121 PA to his identify.

The newest date into the 2022 season that 13 completely different catchers have been certified for the batting title was April 15, simply over per week in. From April 23 onward, there have been by no means greater than eight certified catchers, and from June 22 onward, by no means greater than seven. By the tip of the yr, the variety of certified catchers was down to 5. Only two certified the yr earlier than, and there haven’t been greater than six certified catchers in a season since 2016.

These two graphs present the variety of certified catchers in every season from 1961 to 2022, on a five-year rolling foundation. The first presents the variety of catchers per staff, whereas the second exhibits the variety of catchers as a proportion of all certified hitters:

The two graphs are virtually similar, and the principle takeaway ought to be fairly obvious: Lately, catchers have been qualifying at an traditionally low charge, each in uncooked quantity and in comparison with their friends at different positions. From 2017-22, we noticed a mean of 4.17 certified backstops per yr. That’s lower than one for every division.

At instances, this development has made me marvel if we want a separate threshold of qualification for catchers. This hypothetical threshold wouldn’t permit any additional gamers to contend for the batting title, however it might present us with a universally agreed-upon taking part in time minimal to make use of when evaluating catchers – not dissimilar to how aid pitchers have their very own innings minimal for qualification.

Consider this: In 2021, Realmuto ranked final amongst certified catchers in hits, residence runs, RBI, batting common, remoted energy, wOBA, xwOBA, and wRC+. He was additionally an All-Star who completed with 4.5 WAR. The phrase “qualified catchers” is actually meaningless in that context. The present 3.1 plate look commonplace that works for different place gamers isn’t all the time so helpful behind the plate.

Yet if the primary 75-ish video games of the 2023 season are any indication, a brand new threshold won’t be crucial in any case. Here’s that listing of certified catchers once more, with just a little extra element this time. I’ve additionally tacked on a pair extra gamers who’re tantalizingly near qualification:

That’s an entire lot of catchers with a preventing probability to qualify by season’s finish. What’s extra, there aren’t many cheapies on the listing; all however certainly one of these guys have really caught not less than 70% of their video games. Last yr, solely three of 5 certified catchers caught 70% of their video games, and solely Realmuto was behind the dish for greater than 85% of his contests.

We clearly have some distinctive lack-of-injury luck to thank for this phenomenon. Twenty-six massive league catchers have hung out on the injured listing this season, however the prime catchers within the recreation have stored remarkably wholesome. Of the highest 10 catchers by projected plate appearances coming into the season (per our Depth Charts), just one has hung out on the injured listing: Will Smith, who qualifies anyway. Furthermore, of the highest 15 by projected plate appearances at catcher, it’s nonetheless solely Smith who’s been on the IL.

The common DH (and the rising tendency to rotate numerous gamers by means of the DH spot) can also be a major issue, though it’s arduous to say to what diploma. On the one hand, almost all of those catchers have hung out because the DH, serving to them to rack up further at-bats. The 4 catchers with probably the most plate appearances this yr have all performed not less than 17 video games at DH. Moreover, if we solely counted plate appearances at catcher, solely 5 of those guys would nonetheless qualify. That’s not nothing, however neither is it almost as spectacular.

However, the opposite 9 certified catchers have spent 9 or fewer video games at DH, and if DH weren’t an possibility, they may have performed a few of these video games behind the plate as an alternative. Furthermore, it’s not as if the AL all the time had extra certified catchers earlier than the NL adopted the designated hitter. Over the final 30 non-DH seasons, the AL solely had seven extra certified catchers, and the NL really had a number of extra within the 5 years earlier than the implementation of the common DH:

In different phrases, whereas the common DH isn’t hurting, I’m inclined to provide extra credit score to the gamers themselves; now we have the privilege of watching an particularly sturdy cohort of catchers this yr. It’s extremely unlikely that every one 13 will end with sufficient plate appearances to qualify, however individually, every of them has what it takes.

There’s no query that Realmuto and Salvador Perez can qualify for the batting title. Perez has carried out so six instances in his profession, whereas Realmuto has certified seven years straight. Willson Contreras has additionally certified twice earlier than, and in his case, the one query is how typically he’ll play catcher as an alternative of DH. Yasmani Grandal isn’t on tempo to qualify, however he’s carried out so 3 times earlier than, and he’s acquired a superb probability to take action in 2023 so long as his current bout of knee soreness doesn’t flip into a bigger drawback.

Sean Murphy and Smith each certified for the primary time final yr, and every is in a robust place to take action once more. They’re the highest two catchers by WAR this season, and the Braves and Dodgers are going to need them on the sector as a lot as potential. Indeed, it was Smith who first impressed this text, when he fought his means again to certified standing final week after struggling a concussion in mid-April.

The different 9 catchers on the listing would all be first-time qualifiers in 2023. For the sake of this evaluation, let’s additional divide them into two teams: the promising younger names who comprise the following technology of proficient catchers, and Elias Díaz.

I don’t imply Díaz any disrespect – fairly the alternative, actually. The 32-year-old debuted in 2015 and surpassed rookie limits two years later, however he’s by no means had greater than 381 PA in a season. This yr, he has lastly taken a full-time job, and he has run with it. He’s cooled down considerably after a sizzling begin in April and May, however his 103 wRC+ continues to be sturdy for his place. He’s been one of the vital sturdy catchers this season, rating second in video games caught, and he has stayed wholesome all through his profession. With the way in which he’s taking part in, the veteran looks as if a superb guess to qualify in 2023.

The different eight catchers are all 27 or youthful with restricted massive league expertise. It’s a formidable group of names, and it bodes nicely for the way forward for the place:

It’s by no means simple to foretell what number of video games a younger catcher will play, however most of those guys have already proven off their sturdiness at one level or one other. Keibert Ruiz ranks second amongst catchers in defensive innings, and he was on tempo to qualify final yr till a freak damage ended his season in early September. Adley Rutschman and Shea Langeliers have been each certified final yr from the dates of their respective call-ups onward, and each had greater than 502 PA mixed between the majors and Triple-A.

Cal Raleigh and Jonah Heim have each certified over the previous calendar yr; since June 23, 2022, Heim has 532 PA and Raleigh simply squeaks in with 515. They each established themselves as frontline catchers final season, and so they’re each extraordinarily necessary to their respective golf equipment. These guys will get the prospect to play. Then there’s Tyler Stephenson, who I debated together with on this piece in any respect. Technically, he’s a certified catcher, however he has spent greater than half his season taking part in DH or first base. However, with Joey Votto again within the lineup and Spencer Steer hitting so nicely, Stephenson might need to catch just a little extra typically if he desires to get within the lineup for the remainder of the yr.

Finally, William Contreras and Gabriel Moreno are the most important wild playing cards within the dialog. Contreras set a profession excessive with 427 PA final yr between Triple-A and the majors, whereas Moreno has by no means had greater than 341 PA in a season. Contreras is the second-best hitter in Milwaukee’s lineup, and he ought to get each probability to qualify so long as he stays wholesome. Moreno, alternatively, has gotten extra taking part in time than anticipated due to Carson Kelly’s lengthy stint on the injured listing. Now that Kelly is again on the sector, the D-backs may take it simple with Moreno.

Thirteen catchers are at present certified for the speed stat leaderboards, and two extra are shut behind. If all of them attain that magical threshold by season’s finish, this could be a landmark season in catching historical past. Even if solely half of them can pull it off, it might buck a years-long development of catchers taking part in much less and fewer. Either means, it’s a storyline price following for the remainder of the season.