It was a nasty week for the Mets, to say the least. In the midst of a seven-game shedding streak that started with a sweep at residence by the Blue Jays and continued with a trio of excruciating losses to the Braves in Atlanta, they misplaced Pete Alonso, possible for not less than the rest of the month, after he was hit on the left wrist. First and foremost, the harm knocked the Mets’ most efficient hitter out of the lineup. It additionally ended no matter hopes Alonso — the foremost league chief in residence runs with 22 — needed to attain 60 for the season.
In the second pitch of his first plate look on Wednesday evening, the 28-year-year previous Alonso took a 97-mph fastball from Charlie Morton off his left wrist. He crumpled to the bottom and instantly left the sport, clearly in ache regardless of having protecting padding on his left hand. An x-ray taken that night confirmed that he hadn’t sustained a fracture, main Alonso to inform reporters, “I feel like I dodged a bullet,” however subsequent CT and MRI scans revealed that he’d suffered a bone bruise and a wrist sprain. On Friday, the Mets positioned him on the injured listing retroactive to June 8, with the workforce asserting, “A typical return to play for this type of injury is approximately 3–4 weeks.” That timetable leaves the door open for Alonso to return proper on the finish of June in a best-case state of affairs, with early July extra possible.
Though Alonso had homered in every of his earlier two video games, first off the Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson on June 4 after which off the Braves’ Bryce Elder on June 6, and although he trash-talked Elder after what was estimated to be a 448-foot shot, the hit-by-pitch didn’t seem like intentional and wasn’t interpreted as such by its sufferer. Alonso had referred to as out, “Throw it again! Throw it again, please!” however the Braves’ rookie didn’t take problem with the taunt, telling reporters, “I mean, if I hit one on the concourse, I might holler, too.”
Alonso pressured that he didn’t really feel as if Morton hit him deliberately, telling reporters that Morton checked on him after the sport. Via the Associated Press:
“He was looking for me… He just wanted to apologize. Obviously he didn’t mean to [hit me]. For people speculating for this or that, I just wanted to clear that. Chuckie’s a good guy and the situation didn’t call for it either. There’s nothing to it. I just happened to get hit with an up-and-in fastball.”
For Alonso, getting hit on the hand is nothing new. He missed six weeks on account of a pitch-induced fracture of his left hand at High-A Port St. Lucie in 2017 and missed 10 days with a sprain after being hit in the correct palm whereas with the Mets two years later. From his postgame feedback:
“I’ve had broken hands before in the past, I’ve had wrist and hand contusions in the past. This happens pretty unfortunately regularly in my career,” he mentioned. “That’s why I put on all my guards. I suppose now I’ll be including one other layer of padding to the stuff that I take advantage of on a standard foundation.
“Guys throw hard, they have nasty stuff that moves all over the place. Next time I’ll have a pad to protect more surface area.”
The harm interrupts what’s ben an distinctive season for Alonso, not less than within the residence run division. He homered 10 instances within the Mets’ first 21 video games, and after including simply three homers over the workforce’s subsequent 21, went yard in 4 straight video games from May 16 to 19, the primary three of which got here in opposition to the Rays, the final in opposition to the Guardians. He reached 20 homers on May 27, within the Mets’ 53rd recreation of the season, placing him on tempo for 61 — various be aware provided that Aaron Judge simply beat the mark by a single homer final yr. Though he’d fallen behind that tempo earlier than the harm, he was at a degree the place it wasn’t onerous to get again on monitor; even slipping additional behind would have left him with a official shot of bettering his franchise report of 53 homers, set in 2019 (and nonetheless the rookie report as properly).
Alonso hadn’t missed a recreation earlier than getting hit by Morton, however even having sat out 4 now, he’s 4 homers forward of Max Muncy, who’s second within the NL, and three forward of Judge, who leads the AL however himself landed on the IL for the second time this season after spraining ligaments in his proper large toe whereas making a spectacular, fence-busting catch at Dodger Stadium. So a lot for The Great New York Home Run Chase of 2023.
That mentioned, Alonso is hardly hitting at a Judge-like degree. His .231/.326/.546 is nice for a 140 wRC+, tops on the workforce and in a digital tie for eleventh within the NL, however nonetheless three factors in need of his mark final yr, when he hit .271/.352/.518, and 4 in need of his carer excessive, set in 2019 when he hit .271/.352/.518. As these increased batting averages recommend, his offensive profile has shifted a bit in 2023. On the one hand, he’s been a extra disciplined hitter than ever, with the bottom chases price, swing price, and swinging-strike price of his profession:
Pete Alonso Plate Discipline
| Season | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | Zone% | SwStr% | BB% | SO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 34.6% | 68.1% | 46.6% | 35.9% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 26.4% |
| 2020 | 33.4% | 66.7% | 46.1% | 38.1% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 25.5% |
| 2021 | 35.0% | 71.3% | 49.3% | 39.3% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 19.9% |
| 2022 | 36.0% | 74.2% | 49.9% | 36.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 18.7% |
| 2023 | 29.9% | 62.2% | 42.6% | 39.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 19.5% |
Alonso is chasing fewer than one-third of all pitches exterior the zone for the primary time in his profession. His price of swinging at pitches within the zone is down 12 share factors from final yr and 4.5 factors beneath his lowest profession mark. For the primary time, his swinging-strike price is beneath 10%, and his strikeout price is the second-lowest of his profession, along with his stroll price an eyelash from matching his profession excessive. He’s been significantly good at not chasing above the zone, however his swing price is down in all places:
The end result has been a better high quality of contact… largely. Alonso’s hitting extra fly balls than ever, and whereas his common exit velocity is tied with final yr’s mark as a profession low, his barrel price is at a profession excessive:
Pete Alonso Batted Ball Profile
| Season | BBE | GB/FB | GB% | FB% | EV | Barrel% | HH% | AVG | xBA | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 417 | 0.98 | 40.5% | 41.5% | 90.7 | 14.6% | 42.2% | .260 | .257 | .583 | .551 | .384 | .380 |
| 20xq20 | 148 | 0.89 | 39.2% | 43.9% | 90.2 | 12.8% | 40.5% | .231 | .225 | .490 | .463 | .342 | .334 |
| 2021 | 438 | 0.90 | 38.8% | 42.9% | 91.0 | 14.8% | 47.3% | .262 | .271 | .519 | .542 | .363 | .377 |
| 2022 | 478 | 0.82 | 36.2% | 43.9% | 89.8 | 12.3% | 44.6% | .271 | .262 | .518 | .486 | .366 | .353 |
| 2023 | 178 | 0.77 | 37.1% | 48.3% | 89.8 | 16.3% | 42.1% | .231 | .273 | .546 | .596 | .371 | .406 |
Here it’s essential to recollect how a lot noise is included inside common exit velocity. As Tom Tango reminded final week through Twitter, it’s higher to have a look at the common velocity of the highest 50% of a participant’s batted ball occasions… if you could find it. Unfortunately Baseball Savant doesn’t make it straightforward to take action; it’s not on the Statcast participant playing cards, and it’s not on our pages both, however Tango helpfully put collectively a customized desk for this. The column “Best Speed” is that common, and for the massive hitters, it’s above 100 mph; Judge is tops at 107.7 mph, adopted by Ronald Acuña Jr. at 107.3, although he’s “only” fourth in common exit velo. Where it issues so far as Alonso is worried is that whereas his 89.8 mph common exit velo locations him within the 58th percentile, his 102.3 mph Best Speed is within the 78th percentile; inside the participant inhabitants, its standing is nearer to his barrel price, which has been the case for the course of his profession:
Pete Alonso Statcast Percentiles
| Season | EV | Pct | Best Speed | Pct | Barrel% | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 90.7 | 76 | 103.5 | 96 | 14.6% | 97 |
| 2020 | 90.2 | 73 | 102.4 | 84 | 12.8% | 84 |
| 2021 | 91.0 | 80 | 103.7 | 88 | 14.8% | 89 |
| 2022 | 89.8 | 66 | 102.8 | 88 | 12.3% | 86 |
| 2023 | 89.8 | 58 | 102.3 | 78 | 16.3% | 95 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Given the downward development of Alonso’s annual EVs and Best Speeds, I’ll concede that I’m unsure how he’s produced a career-high xSLG, significantly when his 38.3% pull price can also be a profession low (down six factors from final yr). But getting again to the desk earlier than this one, it’s noteworthy that even within the post-shift period, Alosno’s batting common is lagging 42 factors behind his xBA, and his slugging share is 50 factors behind his xSLG. He actually had been mashing the ball earlier than he received harm, even when his slash line appeared a bit of completely different. Hopefully, the harm gained’t sap his energy — an all-too-common prevalence within the aftermath of wrist and hand accidents.
Unfortunately, Alonso’s harm comes at precisely the fallacious time for the Mets, who after I final checked in on June 1 had climbed to inside 3.5 video games of first place at 30–27. They proceeded to attain simply 5 runs in three video games in opposition to the Blue Jays, then blew leads of three runs for 3 nights in a row, which is a ugly method to lose floor in a division race. In the final of these losses on Thursday, Justin Verlander gave up three first-inning runs, after which the Mets countered with 5 within the second off Spencer Strider. They led 8–5 after 4 innings and 10–7 after six, however Drew Smith served up a two-run homer to Travis d’Arnaud within the eighth, David Robertson surrendered a game-tying solo shot to Orlando Arcia, after which Tommy Hunter gave up a three-run walk-off shot to Ozzie Albies within the tenth. Good grief, Charlie Brown.
The Mets adopted that by shedding two out of three to the Pirates in Pittsburgh this previous weekend, together with a 14–7 drubbing on Friday evening. They broke their shedding streak — their longest since June 23–29, 2019 — with a 5–1 win behind Kodai Senga’s seven sturdy innings on Saturday, however fell again into the loss column with a 2–1 defeat on Sunday that knocked them right down to 31–35. They’re fourth within the NL East, 9.5 video games behind the Braves however solely 2.5 video games out of the third Wild Card spot. Where they’d a 12.5% probability of successful the division and a 67.3% probability of constructing the playoffs as of June 1, they’re right down to 2.2% for the division and 34.2% for the playoffs; no workforce in both league has misplaced extra floor in that span.
With Alonso out, supervisor Buck Showalter has began Mark Canha and Mark Vientos twice apiece at first base, with the previous choosing up some extra innings through in-game strikes. The 34-year-old Canha is hitting a modest .246/.330/.397 (105 wRC+) however has heated up for the reason that begin of May (.266/.349/.426, 121 wRC+); the 23-year-old Vientos, a rookie, has hit simply .167/.200/.238 in 45 PA up to now. With Canha shifting from his common spot in left area, that’s opened up taking part in time for 35-year-old Tommy Pham, whose 122 wRC+ (.246/.326/.491) is fourth on the workforce behind Alonso, Francisco Alvarez (129), and Brandon Nimmo (125); he’s been significantly potent for the reason that begin of May (.279/.354/.588, 154 wRC+).
Still, it’s a tall order to hope that Pham can present Alonso-like manufacturing. If the Mets are to soak up the lack of their large slugger over the following few weeks, they’ll want key gamers reminiscent of Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and each beginning pitcher apart from Senga and Max Scherzer (together with Verlander) — all of whom have underperformed up to now — to step up. If they’ll’t get going, it’s going to hardly matter how lengthy it takes for Alonso to get again.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com