The St. Louis Cardinals have been one in all baseball’s most disappointing groups in 2023. Favored to win the NL Central, they as an alternative completed with simply 71 wins and missed the playoffs for the primary time since 2018. Moreover, the shedding document was wholly unfamiliar territory. Since John Mozeliak was appointed GM previous to the 2008 season (his title is now President of Baseball Operations), the Cardinals had had nothing however profitable information underneath his watch. They reached the postseason in 10 of these seasons and twice superior to the World Series, capturing the franchise’s eleventh modern-era title in 2011.
To say that St. Louis has had sustained success underneath Mozeliak could be stating the plain. Ditto that “The Cardinals Way” — the catchphrase champions the membership’s adherence to fundamentals and its participant improvement acumen — has paid dividends on a constant foundation.
What does it imply when sustained success instantly hits a roadblock? In the Cardinals’ present case, does it symbolize an anomaly? Was 2023 merely a blip, or is there a necessity for Mozeliak’s staff to vary its processes in any means? I requested that query of the manager throughout final month’s GM conferences.
“I think it would be somewhat foolish to just approach this past year as, ‘Oh, odds have it that you’re going to lose, so it happened,’” replied Mozeliak. “You can learn from some things that happened last year. I hope everybody who is involved in this is having that reflection moment and trying to understand what we could have done differently, what we should have done differently, and what we will do differently going forward.”
Asked if he might share specifics, Mozeliak mentioned that whereas some have been recognized, he most popular to not name any of them out, lest he “make anybody feel bad.” He did say that he was keen to name himself out. “Adding more pitching prior going into camp, would have, in hindsight, made more sense” was the mea culpa he selected to share.
That space of want is already being addressed for 2024, as Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray, and Lance Lynn have all been inked to free-agent contracts. Just how a lot the trio meaningfully strikes the needle is a giant query. Gibson and Gray are clearly upgrades — Lynn is 36 years previous and coming off a season the place he allowed 44 dwelling runs whereas logging a 5.75 ERA and a 5.53 FIP, so the jury is out — however are they the kind of starters the Cardinals most want? In phrases of expertise and a capability to provide innings, the reply is seemingly sure. On the opposite hand, none of them are particularly prolific in the case of lacking bats. Of the 58 pitchers to work at the least 150 frames final yr, Gray had the twenty eighth highest strikeout charge, Lynn ranked thirtieth, and Gibson was close to the underside at 49.
That Miles Mikolas — who stays within the rotation — ranked 56th is notable, as is the now-retired Adam Wainwright’s having ranked useless final among the many 127 pitchers who threw at the least 100 innings. All advised, Cardinals starters have been second-worst in strikeout charge among the many 30 groups, trailed solely by the Colorado Rockies. Which brings us to a different concern. Cardinals starters had a .325 BABIP-against, simply the very best of any staff. A yr earlier that quantity was a middle-of-the-pack .294.
Why this occurred is one more query. Was having Willson Contreras and never Yadier Molina behind the plat the first issue? Or was it extra that St. Louis’s protection plummeted from fourth-best to Twentieth-best in DRS, and from third to 18th in Def? (Nolan Arenado’s going from 19 DRS in 2022 to only one in 2023 stands out like a sore thumb).
Will the additions of Gibson, Gray, and Lynn do something to ameliorate these points? Mozeliak did say that his staff must get again to the basics they’ve been identified for, however to what extent have been fundamentals truly a problem final yr? (I didn’t see anyplace near sufficient Cardinals video games to supply a sound opinion). Either means, was this a problem that may be solved by shuffling a number of deck chairs and tweaking processes right here and there? The similar goes for different points that contributed to the surprising shedding season. Is there something truly amiss with “The Cardinals Way” that has labored so properly, or was 2023 largely what Mozeliak was unwilling to name it: a blip inside a profitable system?
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Billy Herman went 39 for 100 in opposition to Dizzy Dean.
Babe Herman went 37 for 100 in opposition to Ray Kremer.
Sparky Adams went 35 for 100 in opposition to Eppa Rixey.
Pie Traynor went 33 for 100 in opposition to Pete Donohue.
Earl Averill went 31 for 100 in opposition to Lefty Stewart.
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The Cincinnati Reds had 16 gamers make their MLB debuts this previous yr, and whereas a few of them have been pitchers — Andrew Abbott, Connor Phillips, and Brandon Williamson are most notable — the largest impacts have been made by place gamers. Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marté, Matt McLain, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all emerged as possible lineup mainstays for years to come back. Ditto Spencer Steer, who debuted in 2022 and acquired down-ballot Rookie of the Year votes this season.With wunderkind De La Cruz now graduated from prospect standing, still-rookie-eligible Marté initiatives because the group’s new No. 1.
Cincinnati’s rotation clearly has potential, however on the similar time, Reds starters ranked fourth from the underside within the National League in pitcher WAR, in addition to second from the underside in ERA. Continued progress from Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and the aforementioned trio of debuting children ought to assist, as will the return of Nick Lodolo from damage. Those issues mentioned, what does the long run portend in the case of arms on the farm? With that thoughts, I requested Cincinnati President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall how comfortable he’s along with his membership’s pitching pipeline.
“I think we’ve made progress, but I also think you can always use more pitching,” Krall advised me throughout final month’s GM Meetings. “I like the guys we have. We drafted Rhett Lowder (seventh overall) and Ty Floyd (38th overall) one-two last year. Chase Petty took some strides forward. We’ve got guys like Julian Aguiar. Some of the guys who went from Triple-A to the big leagues are continuing to improve. I think we’re doing a good job.”
Aguilar, a 22-year-old right-hander whom the Reds took within the twelfth spherical of the 2021 draft, was a notable point out by Krall, partially as a result of he entered this previous season unranked and unheralded. At yr’s finish his stat line included a 2.95 ERA, a 3.22 FIP, and 138 strikeouts in 125 innings between High-A Dayton and Double-A Chattanooga.
Petty, who was drafted twenty sixth total in 2021 by the Twins, was acquired by the Reds in March 2022 within the deal that despatched Sonny Gray to Minnesota. After lacking the primary month of the season whereas recovering from an elbow ailment, the 20-year-old right-hander put up a 1.72 ERA and a 2.32 FIP with 66 strikeouts in 68 innings between Dayton and Chattanooga.
Asked particularly about Lowder, Krall cited the 21-year-old right-hander’s “good feel to pitch,” in addition to his number of plus pitches and competitiveness. Lowder’s numbers in his junior season at Wake Forest have been eye-opening. Augmenting a 15-0 won-lost document have been a 1.87 ERA and 143 strikeouts to go together with simply 24 walks in 120-and-a-third innings. Lowder will make his skilled debut in 2024, as will Floyd, a 22-year-old righty who pitched at LSU.
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A quiz:
Which participant holds the document for many one-base hits in a single season? (A touch: he additionally has the third-highest single-season singles whole.)
The reply could be discovered under.
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NEWS NOTES
The Pittsburgh Pirates have employed Sarah Gelles as an assistant GM. The Amherst College graduate joined the Pirates as a baseball operations intern in 2009 earlier than occurring to work for MLB’s Labor Relations division in 2010, the Baltimore Orioles from 2011-2018, and the Houston Astros for the final 5 years. Her most up-to-date place was Director, Research & Development.
The Astros have employed Deric Ladnier as their new Senior Director of Amateur Scouting. The 59-year-old former minor league infielder has beforehand served as scouting director for the Kansas City Royals and the Arizona Diamondbacks. I interviewed Ladnier for Baseball Prospectus in 2007 throughout his Royals tenure.
Brayan Peña would be the new minor league catching coordinator for the Detroit Tigers. The 41-year-old former big-league backstop has been managing within the Tigers system, most lately with the High-A West Michigan Whitecaps.
The Tigers additionally introduced that Tim Federowicz, who had been serving as their main league catching coach, will take over as supervisor for his or her Triple-A affiliate, the Toledo Mud Hens.
Kris Atteberry would be the new radio play-by-voice of the Minnesota Twins, taking up for Cory Provus who’s transferring over to TV to interchange the recently-retired Dick Bremer. A 1996 graduate of Stanford University, Atteberry has been with the Twins Radio Network since 2007 serving as a pre- and postgame host and backup in-game broadcaster,
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The reply to the quiz is Ichiro Suzuki, with 225 singles in 2004. Wee Willie Keeler had 206 in 1898, whereas Suzuki’s 203 in 2007 is the third-highest single-season whole.
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The current information that Ben Wagner gained’t be returning because the radio play-by-play voice of the Toronto Blue Jays was surprising and head-scratching. Then once more, the choice to not convey again the gifted, 43-year-old broadcaster was made by Rogers Sportsnet, and head-scratching isn’t precisely anomalous for the deep-pocketed media firm. In current years, Rogers, which additionally owns the Blue Jays, has had Wagner calling street video games from a Toronto studio quite than on the ballpark the place the staff was enjoying. That they’ve performed so isn’t solely disrespectful to Wagner and the fanbase, additionally it is downright embarrassing.
“Embarrassing” is a phrase that Jerry Howarth, the legendary Blue Jays broadcaster whom Wagner changed upon his retirement previous to the 2018 season, used when sharing his opinion of the ouster with Rob Longley of The Toronto Sun. Howarth additionally used the phrase “injustice.” With the caveat that I’m not aware about something that may have been occurring behind the scenes — it’s all the time doable that Rogers had authentic causes — Howarth’s response appears spot-on. By all appearances, Wagner obtained a uncooked deal.
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The Detroit Tigers added 35-year-old right-hander Kenta Maeda to their beginning rotation this previous week, giving them a confirmed veteran to work alongside a quartet of much less established, but very promising, youthful hurlers. (My colleague Michael Baumann wrote about the free-agent signing right here). The projected foursome that Maeda will be part of includes Matt Manning, Casey Mize, Reese Olson, and Tarik Skubal, all of whom, assuming good well being, venture as stable big-league starters. Alex Faedo, Sawyer Gipson-Long, and Joey Wentz, who mixed to make 35 begins final yr, might additionally issue into the combination.
Which brings us to the pitcher with arguably the very best ceiling within the group. Drafted third total in 2021 out of an Oklahoma City highschool, Jackson Jobe possesses an influence arsenal that would propel him to the highest half of the Tigers rotation within the not-too-distant future. After seeing the beginning of his 2023 season delayed by a again ailment, the 21-year-old right-hander put up a 2.81 ERA with 84 strikeouts in 64 innings between three ranges, and he adopted that up with 4 spectacular outings within the Arizona Fall League. Jobe encompasses a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, a sweeping slider that spins round 3,000 RPMs, and a changeup that his AFL supervisor, Javier Colina, described to Lynn Henning of The Detroit News as “the best I’ve seen (in the minor leagues) since Zack Greinke.”
I requested Tigers President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris about Jobe through the GM Meetings.
“He has dominating stuff,” Harris advised me. “You saw it across multiple levels and in the Fall League this year. The most important thing for him is that he made a real adjustment from [Low-A] Lakeland to [High-A] West Michigan. He started absolutely challenging hitters, realizing how good his stuff is and how when he was throwing chase pitches he was often doing hitters a favor. He started challenging them directly, landing all of his shapes in the zone repeatedly, and was ending at-bats quickly, which allowed him to go deeper in games. That is going to be a very valuable skill when he gets to the big leagues.”
Colina, who managed the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Double-A affiliate earlier than overseeing Jobe’s outings within the AFL, advised Henning that the teen is “going to be a No. 1 or No. 2 (starter) for the Tigers.” Moreover, he predicted that Jobe could be known as as much as Detroit within the coming season. That appears unlikely provided that Jobe has simply 141-and-third-professional innings underneath his belt, and has made just one begin on the Double-A stage, however it’s all the time doable. There isn’t any questioning his uncooked stuff, and as evidenced by the 2 interviews he’s performed for FanGraphs — the newest one could be discovered right here — he backs that up with an analytically-aided thirst to proceed to get higher. Jobes’s ceiling is certainly sky-high.
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FOREIGN AFFAIRS
NPB’s Tohoku Rakuten Eagles will reportedly launch Tomohiro Anraku after investigating allegations that the 27-year-old pitcher harassed and bullied youthful teammates. Veteran MLB and NPB hurler Masahiro Tanaka, who additionally performs for Rakuten, issued an apology on social media for not doing his half to forestall the harassment and bullying.
Albert Almora Jr. is 15-for-72 with three doubles and a triple for the Puerto Rican Winter League’s Cangrejeros de Santurce. The 29-year-old outfielder’s final MLB motion got here with the Cincinnati Reds, who launched him in September 2022.
Sammy Hernandez is 10-for-32 and has a .436 OBP with the Puerto Rican Winter League’s Leones de Ponce. Acquired by the St. Louis Cardinals from the Toronto Blue Jays in change for Genesis Cabrera in July, the 19-year-old catcher performed within the Florida Complex League and the Low-A Florida State League this yr.
Nehomar Ochoa Jr. is 8-for-23 and has a .414 OBP with the Australian Baseball League’s Perth Heat. The 17-year-old outfielder performed in 12 video games for the Houston Astros Florida Complex League entry after being drafted within the eleventh spherical out of Galena Park (TX) High School.
Hector Rodríguez is slashing .303/.330/.455 with one dwelling run in 103 plate appearances for the Dominican Winter League’s Leones del Escogido. The 19-year-old outfielder within the Cincinnati Reds group had 16 dwelling runs to go together with a .292/.343/.495 slash line between Low-A Daytona and High-A Dayton.
Franmil Reyes is slashing .300/.361/.575 with a circuit-best eight dwelling runs in 133 plate appearances for Leones del Escogido. The 28-year-old veteran of six big-league seasons was launched by the Washington Nationals in August.
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Which of Tony Gwynn and Robin Yount had the higher profession? I requested that query in a Twitter ballot earlier this week, and the outcome was a landslide win for the participant who accrued much less WAR, in addition to fewer hits, doubles, triples, dwelling runs, runs scored, and RBIs. That could be Gwynn, who garnered 76.2% of the votes forged, whereas Yount acquired simply 23.8%.
Gwynn had the far increased batting common of the 2 (.338 to .285) and he additionally captured eight batting titles whereas Yount gained none. Gwynn additionally acquired 15 All-Star nods, whereas Yount (inexplicably) acquired solely three. The Milwaukee Brewers legend did win a pair of MVP awards, an honor by no means bestowed upon the San Diego Padres legend. Moreover, as talked about above, he had the sting in six major counting stats, in addition to in WAR (66.5 to 65.0). Each performed 20 seasons, and neither gained a World Series.
Given his batting titles and All-Star appearances, it’s straightforward to see why Gwynn gained the ballot going away. In many respects, he did have the higher profession. At the identical time, it’s not at all unreasonable to really feel that Yount’s was higher. Beauty is within the eye of the beholder.
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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
At Pittsburgh Baseball Now, John Perrotto wrote about the tenuous relationship between Ted Simmons and Jim Leyland through the duo’s temporary time collectively — Simmons as GM, Leyland as supervisor — with the Pirates within the early Nineteen Nineties.
Well earlier than changing into President of Baseball Operations for the Tampa Bay Rays, Eric Neander spent school summers working at Sal’s Pizzeria in Cooperstown, New York. Marc Topkin has the story on the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum’s web site.
The Athletic’s Eno Sarris advised us about a dozen potential future stars in administration and training (subscription required).
At Twins Daily, Sherry Cerny wrote about Minnesota’s depth, and the way letting free-agent pitchers Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray go was a part of the payroll plan.
Fish on First’s Louis Addeo-Weiss made a case for Chase Utley’s Cooperstown-worthiness.
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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
Cito Gaston slashed .318/.364/.543 with 29 dwelling runs and a 144 wRC+ for the San Diego Padres in 1970. It was a career-best yr by a large margin. A giant-league outfielder from 1967-1978, the two-time World Series-winning supervisor completed with 91 dwelling runs, a 94 wRC+, and 0.8 WAR.
Brandon Phillips completed his 17-year big-league profession by going 3-for-24 with the Red Sox in September 2018. The first of his three Boston hits was a game-deciding ninth-inning two-out two-run homer off of Atlanta’s A.J. Minter in a 9-8 Red Sox win.
Hall of Fame right-hander Don Drysdale went 11-11 with a 3.33 ERA for the Montreal Royals in 1955. Tommy Lasorda, a left-handed pitcher earlier than changing into a Hall of Fame supervisor, went 9-8 with a 3.27 ERA for the Triple-A membership that yr.
Ron Cey slashed .328/.400/.588 with 32 dwelling runs for the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate in 1971. He returned to Albuquerque in 1972 and slashed .329/.455/.546 with 23 dwelling runs.
The New York Mets signed Mike Hessman as a free agent on in the present day’s date in 2009. The right-handed slugger proceeded to go 7-for-55 and hit the final of his 14 big-league dwelling runs in 2010. All advised, Hessman homered 462 occasions over 20 skilled seasons, He hit 433 within the minors, 14 in Japan, and one in Venezuela.
The Detroit Tigers acquired John Wockenfuss from the St. Louis Cardinals in change for Lawrence Elliott on in the present day’s date in 1973. Wockenfuss made his MLB debut the next yr and went on to play 12 big-league seasons, all however the final two with the Tigers. Elliott by no means made it to the majors.
Players born on in the present day’s date embrace Larry Anderson, who appeared in 16 video games whereas pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers in 1974-1975 and for the Chicago White Sox in 1977. Not to be confused with Larry Andersen, the longtime reliever as soon as traded for a younger Jeff Bagwell, Anderson threw a five-hit shutout in opposition to the Detroit Tigers in 1975 for one in all his two big-league wins.
Also born on in the present day’s date was Hooks Iott, a left-hander who threw two innings for the St. Louis Browns in 1941, missed a number of seasons serving in WWII, then returned to pitch for each the Brown and the New York Giants in 1947. Per his B-Ref bio web page, Iott fanned 25 batters in a nine-inning sport, and 30 batters in a 16-inning sport, pitching for the Northeast Arkansas League’s Paragould Browns in 1941.
Dixie Walker performed for the Cotton State League’s Vicksburg Hill Billies in 1929 earlier than occurring to log 2,064 big-league hits, the majority of them with the Brooklyn Dodgers. His father, also referred to as Dixie Walker, performed for the Central League’s Zanesville Infants earlier than occurring to log 25 wins for the Washington Senators from 1909-1912.
Dixie Dean, probably the most well-known gamers in English soccer (soccer) historical past — his 383 objectives with Everton FC from 1924-1938 are probably the most any participant has scored for a single membership — additionally dabbled in baseball. The Toffees legend performed in England’s National Baseball Association with Blundellsands and with the Liverpool Caledonians.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com