The 2023 Replacement-Level Killers: Introduction & First Base

In a race for a playoff spot, each edge issues. Yet all too typically, for causes that reach past a participant’s statistics, managers and normal managers fail to make the strikes that would enhance their groups, permitting subpar manufacturing to fester on the danger of smothering a membership’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 ebook It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historic All-Star squad of ignominy, figuring out gamers at every place whose performances had dragged their groups down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the idea quite a few instances at a number of shops and have tailored it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it involves defining alternative stage play, we needn’t hew too intently to exactitude. Any crew that’s gotten lower than 0.6 WAR from a place up to now — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is taken into account truthful recreation. Sometimes, acceptable and even above-average protection (which can rely on which metric one makes use of) coupled with complete ineptitude on offense is sufficient to flag a crew. Sometimes a membership could also be properly forward of alternative stage however has misplaced a key contributor to harm; typically the reverse is true, however the crew hasn’t but climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I do know alternative stage after I see it.

For this collection, I’ll go across the diamond, declaring essentially the most egregious examples of potential Killers at every place amongst contenders, which I’ll outline as groups which can be above .500 or have Playoff Odds of no less than 10.0%. That definition covers 22 groups, up from 17 final yr (thanks for nothing, Rob Manfred). I’ll embrace the rest-of-season projections from our Depth Charts, and whereas I’ll point out potential commerce targets, I’m much less targeted on these groups’ options than I’m the issues, as a result of hey, human nature.

This first installment will cowl first basemen. All statistics inside this piece are via July 19.

Brewers

At his greatest, Rowdy Tellez is loads of enjoyable, however he struggled mightily (.213/.285/.388, 79 wRC+) earlier than being sidelined by forearm irritation earlier this month, after which mangled his left ring finger earlier this week shagging fly balls (for conditioning functions, not in an try to maneuver him to the outfield). He tore the fingernail off (ouch!), wanted 17 stitches and surgical procedure to restore a fracture on the tip, and can be sidelined a further 4 weeks. With options resembling Jon Singleton, Luke Voit, and Mike Brosseau having come and gone, and Darin Ruf out resulting from a fractured proper patella and a deep knee laceration, Owen Miller has been enjoying first, however his bat is gentle (.271/.314/.387, 89 wRC+). Given the state of affairs, it’s most likely price taking one other have a look at Keston Hiura, who’s been raking at Nashville (.314/.400/.572, 139 wRC+), notably because the crew goes to want a number of bats to improve an offense that entered Thursday with a collective 88 wRC+, fifth-worst within the majors and the worst of any crew that’s made the lower for this collection.

Padres

The Eric Hosmer period ended on the deadline final yr, however one way or the other the Padres’ first base state of affairs has gotten worse. The infield shuffle attributable to the Xander Bogaerts signing — sending Ha-Seong Kim to second base and Jake Cronenworth to first — seemed like a waste of the latter’s defensive versatility, however his offense has vanished into the Crone Zone (.210/.308/.350, 85 wRC+ total, and worse whereas enjoying first). Matt Carpenter’s magic from final yr has worn off, and Quad-A guys Brandon Dixon and Alfonso Rivas aren’t the reply. A commerce for the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger could possibly be a stretch, but when the Padres don’t blow up their roster, they may attempt to swing an intradivision deal for the Rockies’ C.J. Cron, or go after a participant with membership management by dealing Cronenworth, whose versatility and price certainty (he’s received a seven-year, $80 million deal that kicks in subsequent yr) offers him some attraction regardless of his present struggles.

Astros

After his sub-replacement stage season, the Astros let Yuli Gurriel stroll in free company and changed him by signing one other growing old Cuban defector, José Abreu, to a three-year, $58.5 million deal, the most important since Jim Crane bought the crew in 2011. Though the 36-year-old slugger was coming off his greatest full season since 2017 (.304/.378/.446, 137 wRC+, 3.9 WAR), it seems age has instantly caught up with him. He didn’t hit his first homer till May 28 and batted an abysmal .211/.276/.260 (50 wRC+) via the tip of May. Abreu has since stopped the bleeding, managing a 116 wRC+ in June and July, however his total .244/.291/.356 line (78 wRC+) and -0.8 WAR symbolize across-the-board profession worsts, and his Statcast line is filled with profession worsts as properly (89.4 mph common exit velo, 7% barrel charge, .366 xSLG, .291 xwOBA). A glance beneath the hood exhibits that he’s chasing 39.1% of pitches outdoors the zone, and that charge is barely increased even amid his enchancment.

The Astros have been recognizing Yainer Diaz, Mauricio Dubón, and David Hensley at first when Abreu wants a breather, however accidents to Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve have pressed the primary two of these gamers into common responsibility. Singleton, who’s again within the group after a five-year absence and a short run with the Brewers, represents an alternate; he’s hit .265/.392/.509 between his Triple-A stints at Nashville and Sugar Land, however looks as if a protracted shot to get a glance. With Michael Brantley additionally out resulting from irritation in his surgically repaired proper shoulder, it appears extra seemingly the crew will add an outfielder who may spot at first base; they’ve proven curiosity in Bellinger, who notably suits GM Dana Brown’s desire for a lefty bat. He received’t come low cost given his rebound and the variety of groups that would use his bat and glove, however the potential for a blockbuster that additionally consists of Marcus Stroman is there.

Angels

The Angels have already used 10 gamers at first base, with Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, Jared Walsh, Jake Lamb, and Mike Moustakas all making no less than 10 begins, and the wonderfully-named rookie Trey Cabbage getting his first look this week. Drury and Urshela — each of whom have performed extra at different infield spots — are each on the injured record; the previous has a shoulder contusion, the latter a pelvic fracture that would finish his season. Walsh has struggled mightily resulting from insomnia and migraines and is at the moment at Triple-A Salt Lake City, Lamb is now within the Yankees group, and Moustakas has been splitting time between each corners with Anthony Rendon sidelined by a shin contusion. It’s an unholy mess.

Moustakas hasn’t hit for a 100 wRC+ since 2020 (he’s at 99 now, by way of a .254/.337/.434 line together with his time with the Rockies), and Cabbage is a 26-year-old with excellent uncooked energy — Baseball America prompt in 2021 that it’d grade out as an 80 — but in addition strikeout charges properly above 30% at just about each minor league cease, which is why he hasn’t been thought of a prospect. If the Angels are severe sufficient to carry onto Shohei Ohtani, they want a greater plan than their present patchwork.

Phillies

The defending NL champions suffered a blow throughout spring coaching once they misplaced Rhys Hoskins for the season resulting from a torn left ACL. For some time, Kody Clemens and Alec Bohm shared the spot, however the former hit for only a 77 wRC+ in 148 PA earlier than switching locations with Darick Hall, who hit .250/.282/.522 with 9 homers in 142 PA final yr and had been getting his stroke again at Triple-A after lacking over two months resulting from a torn ligament in his proper thumb. Bohm has hit .282/.334/.421 (104 wRC+) total, and his protection at first base has at greatest been much less harmful than his work at third. Meanwhile, Hall hasn’t been in a position to replicate final yr’s pop.

The Phillies are planning to offer Bryce Harper a have a look at first base, a place he’s by no means performed professionally. The 30-year-old celebrity has hit a relatively skinny however productive .300/.394/.422 since getting back from Tommy John surgical procedure, however has been restricted to DH responsibility up to now. Getting a learn on whether or not he can deal with the brand new place earlier than the deadline — one thing that’s been delayed by latest climate and scheduling points — is a precedence. If he takes to it, the Phillies may confiscate Kyle Schwarber’s glove, a necessity given his -15 DRS in left area, and open their improve pool to incorporate outfielders in addition to first basemen, or actually nearly anyone with some pop of their bat.

Orioles

Last yr, the Orioles moved their left area wall again 26.5 ft and raised the fence peak almost six ft, and maybe no hitter bore the brunt greater than righty-swinging Ryan Mountcastle, whose 86-point hole between his slugging proportion and .509 xSLG was the majors’ largest, limiting him to a 106 wRC+. History has repeated itself this yr, as Mountcastle has hit .234/.269/.426 (86 wRC+) and is 95 factors wanting his .521 xSLG, the majors’ third-highest mark. Compounding Mountcastle’s issues, the 26-year-old first baseman missed a month resulting from vertigo; he’s began at first base in simply one of many crew’s first seven video games since returning.

In Mountcastle’s absence, lefty-swinging Ryan O’Hearn received the majority of the primary base work, and up to now, he’s been punishing the ball, with a 93.5 mph common exit velo, a 58.3% hard-hit charge, and a .305/.355/.510 (137 wRC+) line. Though his small-sample defensive metrics are shaky, his bat could have solved the issue to the crew’s satisfaction. At the very least, he’ll seemingly function the lengthy half of a platoon, leaving GM Mike Elias to give attention to fortifying different areas for the first-place (!) Orioles.

Marlins

The Marlins signed Gurriel to a minor league deal in March. While his 95 wRC+ (.264/.326/.387) represents a 10-point improve on final yr, it’s nonetheless fairly awful for the place, and that’s with him outdoing his .328 xSLG by almost 60 factors; issues may get even uglier if he regresses. Garrett Cooper, who made the NL All-Star crew final yr, has hit for simply an 88 wRC+ in part-time responsibility at first and a 101 wRC+ (.262/.303/.436) total. Such manufacturing hardly befits a Marlins crew that has the franchise’s greatest file at this juncture since 2016 and that entered Friday in a digital tie for the third NL Wild Card spot. Bellinger will surely match right here — to be truthful, he’d match nearly any contender if he retains hitting — and the crew additionally has the choice of transferring Luis Arraez from second base to first, because the Twins did final yr, although provided that they will discover a productive second baseman. Owner Bruce Sherman has publicly mentioned he’s “prepared to give [general manager Kim Ng] and her staff the resources she needs over the next month to help the club,” which may translate right into a willingness to tackle important wage or dig into the farm system — although it’s not at its strongest proper now — to make a giant deal.

Also: In the 2 days main as much as penning this, the Mariners (104 wRC+, 0.6 WAR, 1.0 projected rest-of-season WAR) and Red Sox (110 wRC+, 0.7 WAR, 0.7 ROS WAR) each flirted with touchdown on this record, however they’re a lower above the remainder. The Mariners’ Ty France was an All-Star in 2022, however he’s scuffled so far this yr, hitting .249/.319/.373 (99 wRC+) whereas beginning all however six of the crew’s first 95 video games at first base. Lefty-hitting Mike Ford, who has swung a scorching bat (.260/.318/.580, 147 wRC+) whereas DHing towards righties, is an alternate, and given all the opposite areas the place the Mariners need assistance — second base, proper area and DH are all in Killer territory at the moment — this can be a spot the place they grin and bear it. As for the Red Sox, they haven’t but given up on Triston Casas, whose offense has been trending upward; since posting a 60 wRC+ in March and April, he’s hit .274/.362/.484 (129 WRC+) since. Move alongside.