The 2023 Replacement-Level Killers: Second Base

Today, we flip our consideration to the second base Killers. While nonetheless specializing in groups that meet the unfastened definition of contenders (a .500 document or Playoff Odds of at the least 10%), and which have gotten about 0.6 WAR or much less out of a place up to now — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this 12 months I’ve integrated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for a further perspective. Sometimes that will counsel that the group will clear the bar by a major margin, besides, I’ve included them right here as a result of the group’s efficiency at that spot is value a glance.

As famous beforehand, a few of these conditions are extra dire than others, significantly when taken within the context of the remainder of a group’s roster. I don’t anticipate each group to exit and observe down an improve earlier than the August 1 deadline, and I’m much less involved with the options – lots of which have extra shifting components concerned than a single commerce — than the issues. Unless in any other case indicated, all statistics are by way of Sunday.

Red Sox

Though he missed a month on account of a proper hamstring pressure, Christian Arroyo has gotten the majority of the enjoying time at second base for Boston. Unfortunately, he’s hit a meager .247/.277/.382 (77 wRC+), and even with stable protection, he’s within the pink, WAR-wise (-0.1). Enmanuel Valdez, a forty five FV prospect with some pop, did many of the fill-in work in Arroyo’s absence however hit simply .234/.280/.404 (81 wRC+). Since being despatched right down to Triple-A Worcester, he’s struggled with accidents; he’s at present out on account of a left hamstring pressure after beforehand lacking time with left thumb irritation. Both Enrique Hernández and Justin Turner have lately noticed on the keystone as nicely; after spending only one inning on the place the earlier seven seasons, the latter has performed 27 innings there this 12 months.

With Trevor Story shifting his rehab from Tommy John surgical procedure to Worcester, the Red Sox will quickly get an improve at shortstop. That would make Hernández, who’s began 54 video games there in comparison with 14 at second, obtainable for extra time on the latter place, however he’s hit for only a 60 wRC+ (.222/.279/.320) this season, after placing up a 75 wRC+ final 12 months. Valdez may get one other look, however this spot may have exterior assist. The high possibility on the commerce market might be the Reds’ Jonathan India, who can be eligible for arbitration for the primary time this winter however has been crowded out by the brand new wave of Reds infielders. The Red Sox in all probability don’t have the younger, controllable pitching the Reds search — they’re not parting with Brayan Bello, they usually’ve obtained pitching wants of their very own. If they do make a transfer right here, a change-of-scenery candidate such because the A’s Tony Kemp could possibly be extra sensible.

Mariners

Kolten Wong entered the 12 months having hit for a 109 wRC+ in three of the previous 4 seasons, together with a 117 mark final 12 months. Acquired from the Brewers in alternate for Abraham Toro and Jesse Winker, the 32-year-old two-time Gold Glove winner has fully collapsed on the offensive aspect. Even together with Monday night time’s pinch-homer, he’s batting .162/.244/.229 for a 39 wRC+, the majors’ fifth-lowest mark amongst gamers with at the least 150 PA. He’s averaging simply 85.2 mph on his batted balls and has barreled simply two (!) all 12 months whereas producing a 27% hard-hit fee and a .283 xSLG.

The Mariners have been platooning the lefty-swinging Wong with righty-swinging José Caballero, a 26-year-old rookie who was graded as a 40 FV prospect on the latest Mariners Top Prospects listing however who has hit .228/.354/.333 (103 wRC+). His 83.3 mph common exit velo and 24.3% hard-hit fee are worse than Wong’s, however his 3.3% barrel fee is greater than double. He’s additionally strolling in 11.6% of his plate appearances and driving pitchers nuts along with his ways concerning the pitch clock. Via Eric Longenhagen on the prospects listing:

Caballero is probably one of the best in baseball at leveraging the pitch clock and timing his entry into the batter’s field in such a approach as to make the opposing pitcher weak to a violation, or to trigger the pitcher to come back set earlier than Caballero has visually addressed the mound. It typically places the opposing pitcher on tilt, and I can’t resolve if it’s bush league or good, however just like the Patrick Beverlys and Tie Domis of the world, Caballero is the form of participant you’re keen on when he’s in your group and hate when he’s not.

Beyond that, Caballero is enjoying fairly good protection based mostly on the metrics. Expanding his function to incorporate right-handed pitching may cost a little him some productiveness, but it surely’s robust to think about he’d be as dangerous as Wong. A commerce for India could be a extra impactful transfer, and it’s value noting that normal managers Jerry Dipoto and Nick Krall have already pulled off two large offers inside the final 12 months and a half (the swap that introduced Winker and Eugenio Suárez to Seattle in alternate for a four-player package deal headlined by Brandon Williamson and the Luis Castillo 2022 deadline blockbuster), although the Mariners’ farm system has thinned significantly, partly due to these trades.

Mets

A 12 months in the past, Jeff McNeil was a second-time All-Star, a down-ballot MVP vote recipient, the NL batting champion because of a .326/.382/.454 line, and a top-10 NL participant by way of each his 143 wRC+ and 5.8 WAR. This 12 months, he entered Monday batting a meager .248/.322/.321 (87 wRC+) and… nicely, he’s right here. Quite merely, the hits haven’t been falling in, as his BABIP has dropped from .353 to .277. His 2023 exit velo (86.8 mph) and hard-hit fee (30.4%) are inside an eyelash of final 12 months, however his already-piddling 2.7% barrel fee has dropped to 1.6%. Instead of spraying doubles down the traces, he’s making extra weak contact, and he’s already hit 18 popups in comparison with 11 final 12 months. A drop in manufacturing like that is all the time a danger for such a batting-average-dependent hitter, and backup Luis Guillorme and the since-traded Eduardo Escobar haven’t helped.

Given the difficulties of buying and selling both Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander (or each) on account of their salaries and no-trade clauses, McNeil is a participant to control if the Mets do resolve to dismantle. He’s simply over half a season right into a four-year, $50 million extension, and that price certainty, affordability, and observe document — he bounced again from a equally mediocre 2021 season final 12 months, and owns a 123 wRC+ for his profession — may make him a helpful commerce piece. As to how the Mets exchange him, prospect Ronny Mauricio has been enjoying extra second base than shortstop at Triple-A, the place he’s hit a strong .297/.345/.511. Turning the web page affords the Mets some probability at a youthful, cheaper, and extra productive participant whereas additionally having the means to fill different wants. For a membership that entered Tuesday seven video games underneath .500 and 7 out of the third Wild Card spot, that’s not nothing.

Brewers

Moving on from Wong has confirmed to be an even bigger problem than the Brewers anticipated. Brice Turang, a 23-year-old rookie who positioned sixty fifth on our Top 100 Prospects listing this spring, made many of the begins by way of May, however even since coming back from a three-week stint at Triple-A Nashville, his meager offense (.203/.272/.313, 59 wRC+) has offset above-average protection.

Owen Miller and Andruw Monasterio stuffed in when Turang went down. Both have hit higher than Turang however each at the moment are enjoying repeatedly at different positions on account of accidents. Miller is at present the common first baseman in Rowdy Tellez’s absence, the place his 88 wRC+ is an excellent larger legal responsibility; the group already made that Killers listing. Monasterio, a 26-year-old rookie utilityman who has hit .276/.357/.368 (103 wRC+), is filling in for third baseman Brian Anderson, who’s out with a again pressure. Luis Urías, who hit for a 110 wRC+ and accrued 2.2 WAR final 12 months whereas splitting time between second, brief, and third, has been stashed at Nashville after hitting .145/.299/.236 in simply 68 PA. While he’s began to warmth up down on the farm, this group in all probability wants assist from exterior.

Orioles

Here’s an fascinating state of affairs. Adam Frazier hasn’t been dangerous with the bat (.238/.303/.416, 98 wRC+), however his defensive work has been dreadful in line with each RAA (-9) and DRS (-6), if not UZR (0.4). Ramón Urías (Luis’ brother) is a greater defender who has noticed on the place whereas seeing time on the different infield spots as nicely; total, he’s hit .251/.321/.388 (99 wRC+). Rookie Jordan Westburg, a 2020 first-round choose who positioned ninth on the group’s prospect listing in February, has fared respectably (.266/.319/.438, 108 wRC+) whereas beginning 9 video games at second base and 7 at third. He’s a below-average defender with contact points, however his presence and the Orioles’ infield depth may permit them to commerce Frazier. That would nonetheless depart the group with Westburg, Urías, Jorge Mateo and Gunnar Henderson to cowl three spots, with prospect Joey Ortiz (sixth on the group’s listing) obtainable for additional depth wants.

Also: It’s solely because of Whit Merrifield’s four-hit night time on Monday towards the Dodgers that the Blue Jays prevented this listing, as they pushed their WAR to 0.7. Merrifield has been productive on the spot and total (.299/.351/.403, 112 wRC+), however when he’s performed the outfield, Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio have struggled; each have netted zero WAR, the previous by batting .215/.295/.389 (91 wRC+), the latter .231/.309/.306 (76 wRC+). It wouldn’t be a shock if the state of affairs receives a shake-up quickly.