The Baserunners That Sprint Speed Overlooks

I’ve all the time been fascinated by gamers whose talent units don’t match their bodily make-up. Look at Mookie Betts, a prolific slugger at a mere 5-foot-9. Conversely, there’s Oneil Cruz, a legit shortstop towering over the infield at 6-foot-7. Spencer Strider is without doubt one of the smallest starters within the league, and Zach Eflin is without doubt one of the tallest, but the previous is the facility pitcher, and the latter thrives on finesse. Don’t get me fallacious: It’s enjoyable to observe Aaron Judge sock dingers, too. Still, I’ll all the time have a mushy spot for the gamers who don’t match the prototype. I suppose a childhood stuffed with sports films has conditioned me to root for the underdog.

In the identical vein, I’m a fan of sluggish runners who nonetheless wreak havoc on the basepaths. These gamers aren’t practically as frequent as their reverse; there are much more quick runners who wrestle to contribute on the bases. After all, it’s a lot simpler to fail at one thing regardless of possessing a pure benefit than to succeed with out one. We’ve all met a tall one who stinks at basketball, however you possibly can depend the variety of average-height gamers within the NBA on one thumb. And certainly, the shortage of such gamers is an enormous a part of what makes them really easy to root for.

Of the 50 slowest runners by dash pace in 2023, solely six have offered optimistic worth on the bases, and just one has a BsR that wouldn’t spherical all the way down to zero: Ji Man Choi, who has been value all of 0.6 BsR. Similarly, of the 50 most dear runners by BsR, solely 4 have a dash pace beneath the MLB common of 27 ft per second: Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Josh Rojas. Of these 4, solely Freeman and Rojas have accrued optimistic baserunning worth based on each different main supply; Tucker has been beneath common per Baseball Prospectus, and Altuve has destructive scores at each BP and Baseball Savant.

BsR stays my metric of alternative, however my level is to focus on simply how few gamers with below-average pace have optimistic baserunning numbers throughout the board. Out of 225 certified runners with a dash pace beneath 27 ft/sec, solely two are consensus plus baserunners. Freeman and Rojas show that pace isn’t every little thing, however the different 223 gamers present that it’s nonetheless fairly darned necessary.

My colleague Esteban Rivera just lately coated Freeman’s wonderful baserunning in depth. Rojas is performing even higher, albeit in a smaller pattern measurement. He has performed solely 85 video games, and on account of his poor on-base share, he has had far fewer baserunning alternatives. Nevertheless, his 2.9 BsR places him inside 1.3 runs of Freeman.

His success is not any fluke both: Rojas ranks eighth general in BsR because the begin of the 2021 marketing campaign, and whereas he has gotten slower over the past two years, he was by no means blisteringly quick to start with. According to the numbers at Baseball Savant, he possesses a robust sense of when to advance. Since his rookie season, he has been secure on 135 of 138 development makes an attempt. This yr, he’s been secure on all ten of his stolen base makes an attempt, too, together with his first profitable steal of dwelling. His legs didn’t beat the throw, however he pulled off a miraculous deke to keep away from the tag and get his hand on the plate:

I’ll have thrown Tucker and Altuve underneath the bus earlier to make some extent, however their BsR figures are too good to disregard. As a 26-year-old Gold Glove-winning outfielder, Tucker doesn’t appear to be he needs to be so sluggish, but he and Freeman have comparable dash speeds and home-to-first occasions. But Tucker has a good increased BsR this season regardless of fewer alternatives; he’s on tempo for five.3 BsR over 650 PA, and Freeman is on tempo for less than 4.4. Moreover, Freeman has earned practically a full run of baserunning worth by avoiding double performs, however Tucker has misplaced virtually a whole run for a similar purpose. Avoiding double performs can be an indication of excellent baserunning, however for these guys, I’m inclined to consider it has extra to do with Freeman’s a lot decrease groundball price. You can swipe a bag along with your baseball IQ, nevertheless it’s a lot more durable to suppose your approach out of a double play.

Like Rojas, Tucker has a wonderful sense of when to advance, per Baseball Savant. Indeed, when his dash pace dropped final season, he adjusted by advancing much less usually, thereby sustaining his pristine success price. In addition, he will get good jumps. While his 90-foot cut up time ranks within the forty seventh percentile, his 20-foot time ranks within the 74th. That’s partly as a result of he’s left-handed and subsequently bats nearer to first base. Even amongst lefties, although, he strikes effectively in these first 20 ft.

I’d argue that Tucker is nice at sliding, too, though I don’t have empirical proof to assist my declare; the attention check should do. He is aware of how you can keep away from a tag, and he usually slides proper on the final minute, giving him extra time to construct up momentum. When you mix a superb lead, a superb leap, and a superb slide, pure foot pace isn’t fairly as consequential:

As for Altuve, I’m skeptical of his low dash pace. For one factor, it dropped an incredible quantity this season, going from 28.1 ft/sec to 26.4 ft/sec. Considering he hasn’t suffered any main leg accidents just lately, it’s uncommon that it fell so dramatically between his age-32 and 33 seasons. Furthermore, whereas he ranks within the twenty eighth percentile for dash pace, his home-to-first time ranks within the 57th percentile, and his 90-foot time ranks within the sixty fourth. No certified runner has a bigger hole between his dash pace and 90-foot cut up rating.

On prime of that, Altuve has recorded seven bolts (any run with a dash pace of not less than 30 ft/sec) in simply 69 video games. No different participant with a dash pace beneath 27 ft/sec has recorded greater than a single bolt, and the overwhelming majority haven’t bolted in any respect. The proven fact that he can run that quick — one thing nobody else along with his dash pace can do — is convincing proof that his dash pace doesn’t precisely mirror how effectively he runs. Altuve modulates his pace way over the typical participant; he is aware of when to step on the gasoline and when to slam on the brakes. If he can stick with it, it’s a helpful talent for a veteran getting into his mid-30s.

This bought me fascinated with different gamers who is perhaps undersold by their dash pace — an entire new class of underdogs to root for. After a fast scroll by the dash pace and bolt leaderboards, two extra names stood out: Ronald Acuña Jr. and Tim Anderson, the one gamers with a dash pace beneath 28 ft/sec and greater than 10 bolts.

It is smart why each Acuña and Anderson are taking part in issues secure. In the not-so-distant previous, they every had wonderful dash speeds. Acuña, although, suffered a severe ACL damage in 2021, and Anderson has hung out on the IL with one leg ailment or one other in every of the previous 5 seasons. These days, their dash speeds are nearer to common than elite, however they’re nonetheless able to turning on the jets when they should. Acuña has a top-10 BsR this yr, and Anderson has been a plus baserunner so long as you ignore his dreadful 21.7% GIDP price.

I additionally in contrast each certified runner by dash pace and home-to-first time. The two numbers are carefully linked, nevertheless it’s removed from an ideal correlation; loads of gamers have a greater home-to-first time than dash pace, and vice versa. Four runners particularly deserve particular recognition: Jeff McNeil, Ozzie Albies, Shohei Ohtani, and Cody Bellinger. None of the 4 has a very spectacular dash pace, however all of them rank among the many prime 25 gamers (out of practically 500) within the time they take to get from dwelling plate to first base. (Albies, a switch-hitter, solely ranks so extremely from the left aspect.) Home-to-first time is a crucial measurement of pace, and by this measurement, they’re 4 of the quickest runners within the recreation:

Albies, Ohtani, and Bellinger grade out as robust baserunners, and even McNeil, regardless of a impartial BsR this season, makes use of his under-the-radar pace to his benefit. Throughout his profession, he has demonstrated a flair for avoiding double performs, legging out infield hits, and stretching singles into doubles:

Speed looks like it needs to be one of many best instruments to measure; simply seize a stopwatch, proper? The factor is, pace isn’t truly a single talent, neither is there a single unit with which to measure it. You can observe the gap coated in a given period of time or the time it takes to cowl a given distance. You can measure most pace, common pace, or one thing in between. The runners who attain the highest speeds aren’t essentially those who get to first base the quickest, nor are those who make it to first so rapidly assured to advance to second, third, or dwelling at equally excessive speeds. On prime of that, pure pace doesn’t technically matter in any respect. As lengthy as a baserunner advances regularly and efficiently, the quantity on the stopwatch doesn’t imply a lick.

Sprint pace has turn into the first metric for assessing pace, and for good purpose. It’s straightforward to search out, straightforward to know, and has the catchiest identify, too. But when dash pace is the go-to, a small subset of gamers are certain to be neglected. Those who don’t match a selected mildew miss out on the credit score they deserve for his or her baserunning prowess.

Stats and rankings as of September 7.