The Inside Scoop on Matt Olson

Matt Olson is placing out lots. Exactly 30% of the time, to be exact. His swinging strike price has by no means been larger. He’s solely posted a decrease contact price as soon as, in his disastrous 2020 marketing campaign. Obviously, then, you know the way he’s doing this 12 months: extremely properly. His 140 wRC+ is the second-best mark of his profession. Clearly, one thing fascinating is occurring, so let’s check out what it may be.

Honestly, the strikeouts are nothing new for Olson. His profession 24.1% strikeout price isn’t ultimate for a top-tier hitter, significantly one with restricted defensive worth. It places a whole lot of stress on the remainder of his recreation. You can succeed whereas placing out lots, however it’s a must to do a whole lot of different issues properly to strike out 1 / 4 of the time and be an important hitter.

Throughout his profession, Olson has largely finished that. Take his 2019 season, when he struck out 25.2% of the time. He hit for a ton of energy – even taking part in within the cavernous Coliseum, his ISO was within the high 15 within the majors – and walked sufficient to submit an inexpensive OBP. But you’ll be able to see the draw back simply. Consider 2022, for instance. Olson once more struck out roughly 1 / 4 of the time – 24.3% – and walked an analogous quantity. He once more posted a top-15 ISO; a decrease quantity, to make certain, as a result of 2022 had far fewer homers than 2019. But he ran a .274 BABIP, and that together with the truth that he was taking part in in a greater offensive surroundings however placing up comparable numbers meant he was solely 20% above common relatively than 35% above common.

Seen subsequent to one another, these two seasons clarify the chief fear with Olson. Without a lot change in his underlying expertise, he was solely 20% above common offensively final 12 months:

That’s nonetheless a pleasant participant, however a primary baseman with that type of batting line is hardly an All-Star. It was the Thirteenth-best batting line for a primary baseman within the majors, hardly higher than his alternative in Oakland, Seth Brown. That’s the type of tightrope {that a} participant with Olson’s ability set is all the time strolling; a slight dip in energy or BABIP may be the distinction between common and wonderful.

Olson apologists level to his 2021 season as proof that there’s an answer to the strikeout conundrum. Olson struck out a lot much less in 2021, solely 16.8% of the time. That’s a fairly good resolution, however it didn’t take, and I’m not stunned. He posted a profession excessive in touch price by a good margin, and truly chased pitches at a better price than he had in his profession earlier than 2021. I don’t suppose we’re headed again to that model of Olson.

Why isn’t this 12 months’s uptick in strikeout price proving disastrous? It’s as a result of all the things else is ticking up too. Olson has by no means hit for extra energy than he has to this point this 12 months, and he’s by no means walked extra ceaselessly. Do these two issues, and that strikeout price begins to really feel lots much less onerous.

Let’s take a look at these two developments one by one. First, the facility hitting. Olson has already smashed 17 residence runs, half of final 12 months’s complete in roughly one third the plate appearances. He has a career-high barrel price and a career-high hard-hit price. He’s placing the ball within the air extra ceaselessly, too: he has a career-high fly ball price, and a near-career-low GB/FB ratio.

How’s he doing that? Easy – he’s looking dangerous sliders and placing them within the seats. That may sound like a foul method of going about enterprise – sliders, in any case, are exhausting to hit. But Olson is a superb breaking ball hitter. He’s swinging at three quarters of the sliders he sees within the strike zone, a profession excessive. He’s significantly aggressive when he will get an inside slider, the type that he can activate. If you wish to pull a gradual pitch, right here’s the place you have to be swinging:

Olson has all the time crushed these pitches. For his profession, he’s incandescent when he places an inner-third slider into play. He’s batting .339 with an .887 slugging proportion on these balls, and that doesn’t look fluky. His anticipated statistics on these batted balls are even larger; he hammers them and places them within the air. He’s in a category with Juan Soto, Corey Seager, and Rafael Devers on the high of the majors relating to injury on contact there.

His sizzling zone is larger than simply the inside third, although. If you divide the strike zone right into a three-by-three grid, he’s at his finest within the 4 areas that begin middle-middle and go inside and low, principally the pink areas in that graph up above. He’s swinging at a ridiculous 88% of the sliders he sees in these zones this 12 months. He’s all the time completely demolished these pitches; throughout his complete profession, solely Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, and Joey Gallo have posted a better common exit velocity on them.

Does swinging at these sliders include downsides? Sure. When pitchers throw their sliders both off the plate inside or low on the inside half, Olson is chasing extra ceaselessly than ever. That is sensible; he’s on the lookout for breaking stuff low and in. Sometimes the breaking stuff is simply too low, or too in. Here are his swing charges on sliders in his comfortable zone, in addition to out of the zone close by:

This method explains why he’s swinging at extra pitches outdoors of the strike zone this 12 months. He’s not chasing different pitches extra ceaselessly; his chase charges on fastballs, curveballs, and offspeed pitches intently resemble final 12 months’s. He’s simply on the lookout for a slider to hit, with all of the attendant uncomfortable side effects.

One of these uncomfortable side effects: extra walks. By bisecting the plate and looking for one specific space to swing, Olson is chasing close to the underside inside nook extra, however he’s additionally fully ignoring extra pitches. He’s by no means seen extra pitches per plate look. His chase price on pitches which are both excessive or outdoors is a superb 21.9%. If you’re a pitcher who appears to be like to assault lefties away, you’re in all probability going to both strike Olson out or stroll him. He simply doesn’t interact on the market.

That’s a tough bind except you will have pinpoint command, as a result of pitching Olson away looks like an important plan. He’s clearly a wonderful inside hitter; that’s what I simply spent the entire article to this point detailing. You ought to throw him stuff he can’t activate, naturally. So pitchers try this – he sees pitches on the outer third or off the plate away extra ceaselessly than your common lefty. He particularly sees a whole lot of fastballs on the market; if he needs tender and inside, pitchers will give him exhausting and away.

That results in a whole lot of pitches taken. It additionally results in a whole lot of walks when pitchers aren’t exact with their location. That’s the simplest strategy to clarify Olson’s uptick in stroll price; he’s prepared to maintain the bat on his shoulder if pitchers work him away, for higher or worse.

I’m unsure if this plan is a steady long-term resolution for Olson. I feel it probably makes him extra weak to lefties, as a result of lefty pitchers work away to lefty batters extra usually than righty pitchers do. That’s only a extra comfy pitch form, significantly for breaking balls. He may also have to make an adjustment towards fastballs; by on the lookout for sliders a lot, he’s placing up the worst numbers of his profession towards exhausting stuff. But one factor is evident: taking a look at conventional plate self-discipline numbers doesn’t clarify what Olson is doing.

At the acute, that may imply creating a totally new swing choice metric, like Robert Orr’s dangerous choice price. But even should you don’t wish to obtain each batted ball to again into hitter sizzling zones, you’ll be able to add somewhat nuance to the evaluation, like with Olson. He swings greater than you’d anticipate, which suggests extra strikeouts. But he additionally swings at pitches he can completely pummel, and takes pitches he can’t do something with as a result of they’ll typically result in walks. Olson won’t be a balanced hitter, however he’s inarguably an efficient one.