The Marlins had been the topic of jokes aplenty this winter after they added two established second basemen, Luis Arraez and Jean Segura, to a roster that already featured a number of succesful keystone defenders. Yet all jokes apart, Kim Ng’s unconventional technique of roster development has labored out fairly effectively to date. Arraez leads all main second basemen with a 151 wRC+, and his protection is tolerable so long as he retains hitting. Meanwhile, Jazz Chisholm Jr., although presently on the IL, has adjusted effectively to heart subject, and Jon Berti and Joey Wendle have been a superb defensive tandem at shortstop.
However, the second baseman the Marlins signed to play third is struggling terribly. Segura is slashing .200/.268/.236 (the uncommon .200/.200/.200 batting line, often known as a Paul Janish), and he’s one in all solely 5 certified hitters with out a house run (an achievement referred to as a Reggie Willits). His 43 wRC+ ranks final in baseball, as does his .231 wOBA and .504 OPS. The solely certified hitter with a decrease WAR is José Abreu, who has had a further 5 video games wherein to be dreadful. Segura’s solely saving grace is that he has hit effectively in 15 high-leverage plate appearances (.385 AVG, 134 wRC+), besides, his -1.31 WPA is the worst within the National League.
The final certified batter to complete with a wRC+ under 45 was Clint Barmes, who posted a 38 wRC+ in 2006. Since then, solely 5 different gamers have even completed under 50; usually, hitters both enhance because the yr goes on, or they don’t get sufficient taking part in time to qualify. As for the handful who lasted a full season with such a feeble bat, the one one to have been an above-average hitter all through the remainder of his profession was Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles. His 46 wRC+ in 2017 was an enormous step down from his profession 117 wRC+ to that time.
So which is able to or not it’s for Segura: Will he enhance, will he be compelled right into a bench position, or is he doomed to change into the following Davis? Thankfully for the extensively beloved infielder, the primary of these outcomes appears the more than likely. His .298 xwOBA is his worst since 2015, nevertheless it’s practically 70 factors larger than his precise wOBA and solely 5 factors decrease than his xwOBA in 2022. Moreover, that is the primary season in his profession that Segura isn’t outperforming his xwOBA. Over the previous six years, he has constantly outperformed his xwOBA by about 15 factors every season. If his wOBA was presently 15 factors larger than his xwOBA, it might match the NL common at third base.
Indeed, Segura appears to be a sufferer of circumstance in 2023. He usually runs a BABIP 5-10% higher than league common, however this yr his .243 BABIP is likely one of the lowest within the recreation. It’s onerous to imagine that quantity received’t regress to the imply; Segura hasn’t gotten a lot slower, and he nonetheless sprays groundballs in all instructions. Furthermore, whereas he has but to hit a house run, he has hit 23 fly balls. With a league-average HR/FB fee (or his personal common from the previous three years — the quantity is identical), he would have hit three lengthy balls by now. Per Statcast, he would have at the very least one house run in 26 of 30 stadiums, two house runs in 17 of 30, and three house runs if he performed all his video games at Wrigley or American Family Field. All in all, 4 of his balls within the air would have gone out at the very least a few ballparks. Just take a look at how shut a few of his fly balls obtained to the seats:
If Segura had a league-average BABIP (presuming all further hits had been singles) and a league-average HR/FB fee, his slash line would rise from Janish territory to a serviceable .257/.319/.343. That’s nothing to be happy with, nevertheless it’s not too far off from his preseason ZiPS projection of .271/.329/.387. More to the purpose, these numbers definitely wouldn’t warrant an article about what went mistaken. Thus, I’m not overly involved about Segura simply but. He appears to be on the decline, however his expertise haven’t fallen off a cliff the way in which his 43 wRC+ would recommend. Still, whereas I’ve you right here, let’s take a better take a look at what’s gone mistaken for the person as soon as referred to as Jean, Jean, the Hit Machine.
The greatest factor lacking from Segura’s recreation proper now could be energy. Even with these further house runs and a league-average BABIP, his .343 slugging share and .086 ISO would signify a large drop-off from his previous manufacturing and would rank among the many worst within the recreation. Yet unusually sufficient, his common exit velocity and hard-hit fee have barely modified. His common launch angle is down, however his sweet-spot share (batted balls with a launch angle between 8-32 levels) has fallen lower than one % from final yr and solely 2.4% from his profession common.
Even extra uncommon, Segura is definitely making much less contact categorised as “poor” by Baseball Savant. In 2022, 67.3% of his batted balls had been categorized as both “weak,” “topped,” or “under.” This yr, that quantity is right down to 63.2%. The downside, nevertheless, is that he isn’t barreling the ball both; his barrel fee is right down to 2.4%. That means extra of his contact has fallen into the “flare/burner” and “solid” buckets. Those are each advantageous types of contact, however flares and burners hardly ever result in further base hits, and the ability potential of strong contact pales compared to the ability potential of the barrel.
The indisputable fact that Segura’s hard-hit fee and sweet-spot share haven’t modified very a lot signifies that he’s nonetheless able to hitting the ball onerous and on the optimum angle, however his low barrel fee tells us he simply hasn’t been doing each on the similar time. It’s onerous to know what to make of this info. On the one hand, it means the abilities are nonetheless there; on the opposite, it suggests he isn’t timing up pitches in addition to he used to.
As I evaluate numbers from the previous two years, it’s price maintaining in thoughts that Segura’s decline didn’t come out of nowhere this season. Instead, his energy started to vanish partway by means of the 2022 marketing campaign. At the time, many individuals attributed the issue to the damaged finger he suffered on the finish of May. On a bunt try gone mistaken, Segura broke his proper index finger and spent the following two months recovering. The distinction between his energy numbers pre- and post-injury was stark; his ISO dropped from .132 to .091, whereas his common exit velocity fell by greater than 4 mph.
However, in case you look somewhat nearer on the highs and lows of Segura’s 2022 season, you’ll see his energy really began to fall off a number of weeks earlier than the damage. From Opening Day by means of May 14, Segura had a .200 ISO and a 92.8-mph common EV. More than half his balls in play had been categorised as hard-hit. Then, beginning May 15, he went into a large droop. Over his subsequent 16 video games, he had just one extra-base hit. His ISO was .016 and his common exit velocity fell to 84.9 mph. His hard-hit fee dropped in half, and he was driving much more balls straight into the dust.
As Robert Orr wrote for Baseball Prospectus final May, Segura discovered success early within the season by swinging at extra fastballs and fewer offspeed pitches. This strategy labored at first, however the draw back was clear: He was extra susceptible in opposition to breaking balls. As Orr defined, “By jumping the harder stuff, Segura must commit to swinging earlier and swing harder than he has in the past to catch up to the higher velocity.” In different phrases, by looking fastballs, he was extra prone to get fooled by pitches with much less velocity and extra motion.
As it occurred, Segura’s swing fee in opposition to breaking balls rose all through the month, sitting just under 60% from May 15-31. This was an issue for a few causes. For one, breaking balls induce extra whiffs, and Segura must put the ball in play to succeed. To make issues worse, even when he wasn’t whiffing, his high quality of contact was poor – maybe that’s what occurs whenever you’re hoping for a fastball and also you simply barely handle to make contact with a breaking pitch as a substitute. He was hitting breaking balls with much less authority, and he was sending most of them into the bottom. When he did handle to hit one somewhat larger, the outcomes had been simply as dangerous – he didn’t pull a single breaking ball within the air over the ultimate two weeks of the month.
Unfortunately, Segura’s struggles in opposition to breaking balls have continued in 2023. He swings at extra breaking balls than some other pitch, and to this point he has a .160 wOBA, a .217 xwOBA, and a 28% whiff fee for his bother. When breaking pitches are within the zone, he virtually all the time makes contact however doesn’t do a lot injury. When they’re outdoors the zone, he’s been swinging and lacking greater than ever. Breaking pitches have damaged the hit machine, and critical repairs are so as.
Jean Segura has made a profession out of creating strong contact, and making strong contact with all the things. As his low strikeout fee will attest, he’s nonetheless obtained a number of the finest bat-to-ball expertise in recreation. The “solid” half, nevertheless, wants some work. If he’s going to enhance his numbers (past the anticipated regression), he wants to regulate his strategy in opposition to sliders and curves.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com