The Mariners Have Misplaced Robbie Ray for the Season

Robbie Ray didn’t replicate his 2021 AL Cy Young-winning type final 12 months. In truth, he struggled down the stretch, however he did make a stable contribution because the Mariners ended their 21-year playoff drought. Alas, he received’t get to assist them attempt to repeat that feat. On Wednesday, the Mariners introduced that the 31-year-old lefty will endure surgical procedure to restore a torn flexor tendon and miss the rest of the season.

After a promising spring coaching during which he restored some misplaced velocity to his four-seam fastball, Ray made only one begin, and it wasn’t fairly. Facing the Guardians on March 31, he wanted 26 pitches to finish the primary inning, throughout which he issued back-to-back four-pitch walks to José Ramírez and Josh Bell earlier than escaping by placing out Josh Naylor. His fastball velocity rapidly diminished and he lasted simply 3.1 innings, strolling 5 and surrendering 4 hits and 5 runs (three earned).

In the speedy aftermath, Ray didn’t inform reporters that he had felt tightness in his forearm beginning within the second inning, an issue that he attributed to the chilly climate. After present process an MRI the following day because of lingering soreness, he was recognized with a Grade 1 flexor pressure; solely in discussing the damage with reporters did he reveal his discomfort.

The Mariners shut Ray down for 2 weeks. Ahead of a session earlier this week, each the pitcher and the group had been optimistic that his restoration was on observe, however new photos revealed the flexor tendon pressure. In a briefing earlier than Wednesday’s sport in Philadelphia, supervisor Scott Servais instructed reporters, “The actual area that he damaged, that [has] been kind of repaired… But he got some new images, and then he was still having some pain down in the elbow area. So, they took some more images and that’s what they found.”

Thus ends the second season of Ray’s five-year, $115 million cope with the Mariners, who signed him away from the Blue Jays on November 30, 2021, lower than two weeks after he received the Cy Young. He led the AL in ERA (2.84), strikeouts (248), innings (193.1) and bWAR (6.9), although because of his comparatively gaudy 1.54 HR/9 and three.69 FIP, he positioned simply seventh in fWAR (3.9). With the Mariners, Ray equally struggled to maintain the ball within the park, serving up 1.52 homers per 9. Meanwhile, as his common four-seam velocity dipped from 94.8 mph to 93.4, his strikeout and stroll charges moved within the improper route, with the previous dropping from 32.1% to 27.4% and the latter rising from 6.7% to eight%. Still, he topped 200 strikeouts for the fifth time in his profession, with 212; amongst energetic lefties, solely Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw have accomplished so extra occasions (seven apiece).

Even with the strikeouts, Ray’s 3.71 ERA, 4.17 FIP, and 1.8 fWAR had been middling in comparison with his 2021 numbers as a result of he notably scuffled in September, getting tattooed for a 5.27 ERA and 5.89 FIP in 27.1 innings over his remaining 5 begins, all of them Mariners losses. Only a type of was a high quality begin, that after he’d delivered six straight from August 5 to September 3. His struggles continued into the postseason, as he lasted simply three innings whereas giving up 4 runs in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series towards the Blue Jays (although they got here again to win in dramatic trend), then served up a walk-off three-run homer to Yordan Alvarez in aid within the Division Series opener towards the Astros. He obtained the ultimate two outs for the Mariners within the 18-inning epic Game 3, however solely after Penn Murfee served up the decisive solo homer to Jeremy Peña.

It doesn’t seem as if Ray’s late-season slide is said to his damage given how nicely he pitched nicely throughout spring coaching, permitting two runs in 17 innings whereas placing out 25 and averaging above 95 mph together with his fastball. Via the Seattle Times‘ Adam Jude, Ray “credited his improved velocity this spring to being able to have a normal offseason routine — no MLB lockout to work around, no free agency to navigate, to need to get acclimated to a new team and a new city.”

All of which makes this damage an excellent larger bummer, for as Leo Morgenstern famous, Ray’s a a lot completely different pitcher with an additional little bit of velocity. Picking up his desk from a pair weeks in the past:

Already Ray’s loss has put the Mariners in a considerably unfamiliar place, as a result of final 12 months, they didn’t ship a single starter to the injured record. Ray — who himself has by no means been on the IL because of an arm damage and who ranks sixth in video games began since 2016 (193) — Logan Gilbert, and Marco Gonzales every made full enhances of 32 begins, whereas George Kirby was recalled in early May to switch the struggling Matt Brash, and Chris Flexen made 21 earlier than shifting to the bullpen when Luis Castillo was acquired on July 30. No streak like that lasts without end, although, notably at a time when accidents are on the rise.

As to the place this leaves the Mariners, who’re simply 11-13 and in fourth place within the AL West, the reply is just about the identical as earlier than: in search of a dependable alternative. Castillo has been improbable, pitching to a 1.52 ERA and 1.64 FIP, whereas Gilbert, Gonzales and Kirby have been adequate; every has both an ERA or FIP of three.32 or decrease, with the opposite determine half to three-quarters of a run larger. Flexen, nonetheless, has been rocked for a ten.38 ERA and 6.96 FIP in 17.1 innings whereas being hit at a .345/.417/.566 clip, which on the very least places him on skinny ice.

As for the alternate options, the most definitely within the brief time period might be 36-year-old lefty Tommy Milone, who made a cameo on April 14, throwing 4.2 innings of one-run ball towards the Rockies, strolling two, placing out three, and serving up a homer. That was the well-traveled southpaw’s first main league begin in nearly precisely two years, although he did make seven appearances out of the bullpen for Seattle final 12 months. Since 2016, he’s had stints with eight groups (together with the Mariners in 2019 as nicely), posting a 5.75 ERA and 5.39 FIP in 330 innings, which doesn’t counsel he’s a everlasting answer.

Milone’s at present pitching for Triple-A Tacoma, as are righties Easton McGee and Darren McCaughan, each of whom are on the 40-man roster as organizational depth fairly than as prospects. The 25-year-old McGee, who stands 6-foot-6, was a fourth-round decide by the Rays in 2016; he made one three-inning aid look for the group final 12 months however was subsequently misplaced on waivers to the Red Sox after which offered to the Mariners. He’s a soft-tossing sinker/slider sort who has traditionally generated a ton of groundballs whereas lacking few bats, although final 12 months, he all of a sudden grew to become a fly baller; it didn’t work nicely, as he served up 2.01 homers per 9 whereas posting a 5.43 ERA with a 17.4% strikeout charge and a 5.72 FIP at Triple-A Durham. The 27-year-old McCaughan, a 2017 Twelfth-round decide, has three main league appearances totaling 10 innings, one in every of which got here this 12 months; he’s spent components of 5 seasons together with many of the previous two at Tacoma, the place final 12 months he posted a 4.56 ERA, 22% strikeout charge, and 4.72 FIP. After placing out 10 in his most up-to-date begin on April 23, he might be in line for a glance.

Of better curiosity from a prospect standpoint and in addition at Tacoma (however not on the 40-man) is 24-year-old righty Taylor Dollard, who final 12 months was a forty five FV prospect and the group’s Minor League Player (and Pitcher) of the Year after placing up a 2.25 ERA and three.60 FIP at Double-A Arkansas. A fifth-round 2020 decide, he gained some velocity final 12 months and now throws within the 91-93 mph vary, although stories of a plus slider (sweeper) and plus command have been offset by latest struggles to find the pitch. The normal consensus is that he’s a stable back-end candidate within the making, although within the wake of a tough outing, he simply landed on Tacoma’s seven-day injured record because of arm soreness.

Also from their 2020 draft is first-round decide (no. 6 total) Emerson Hancock, a 23-year-old righty who’s been at Arkansas since late 2021 and who has been chosen for the previous two Futures Games. “Some felt Hancock had the best pure stuff in the 2020 draft, as he consistently touches the upper 90s and adds a vicious slider,” wrote Eric Longehagen in Hancock’s Prospect TLDR, however since then a shoulder damage (2021) and lat damage (2022) have slowed each his improvement and his fastball, limiting him to 143 skilled innings and a four-seamer that’s now averaging 94 mph. His changeup is now the star of a four-pitch combine with doubtlessly plus command. Last 12 months at Arkansas, he posted a 3.75 ERA however a 5.31 FIP in 98.1 innings.

Arkansas teammates Bryce Miller (the group’s solely preseason high 100 prospect as a 50 FV) and Bryan Woo (a preseason Pick to Click for subsequent 12 months’s high 100) may each turn out to be choices with extra seasoning. The former has a fastball that does a ton of harm on the high of the zone and is a legit plus-plus pitch, per Longenhagen, whereas the latter has a fastball that’s been completely dominant because of its using life and uphill angle. This being the Mariners, overseen by one Jerry Dipoto, it’s protected to imagine that in some unspecified time in the future another or two will come from outdoors the group by way of a commerce, although the prospect cabinet is comparativley naked relative to previous years. Until then, the group must discover methods to flee the doldrums with the choices available. Already their playoff ddds have taken an enormous hit relative to the preseason:

Among AL groups, solely the 24.5% drop (from 30.5% to six%) of the White Sox is bigger. Seattle nonetheless has a significantly better likelihood than Chicago, however with out Ray, the group’s highway to October received’t get any simpler.