The Runners Who Make the Least of Their Legs

Carlos Correa appears like he ought to be an excellent baserunner. He’s a younger shortstop with nice instincts within the area. He’s tall and lean, with a protracted pair of legs. In his rookie season, he stole 32 bases in 37 makes an attempt throughout Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors. Yet regardless of what you’d suppose, Correa is decidedly not an excellent baserunner. In truth, he’s been the least priceless runner within the sport this season. Over the previous two years, he has been value -13.6 baserunning runs (BsR); solely Christian Vázquez (-14.0 BsR) has been worse. Surrounded by catchers, first basemen, and growing old veterans, Correa is a fish out of water on the backside of the BsR leaderboards.

The Twins shortstop not too long ago opened up about his baserunning to Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, calling himself “slow as f–k.” It’s no shock Correa is down on himself amid a career-worst season. Moreover, in a textual medium, it’s exhausting to gauge simply how tongue-in-cheek his remark was. Still, whether or not he was dramatizing, joking, or a little bit of each, it’s value clarifying that Correa isn’t fairly that sluggish. His dash pace, as measured by Statcast, ranks within the thirty fourth percentile – sluggish, certain, nevertheless it’s not like he’s strolling across the bases. There are 177 gamers with a slower dash pace this season (min. 10 alternatives) and 115 with a slower home-to-first time. If Correa is “slow as f–k,” I don’t even wish to know what expletives he’d use to explain Miguel Cabrera and Yasmani Grandal. Correa could not have a lot pace to work with, besides, his drawback is that he isn’t taking advantage of the pace he’s bought.

Correa isn’t the one participant responsible of squandering pace, both. Indeed, there are a lot quicker gamers who’ve damage their groups on the basepaths this season, guys who can’t depend on the “slow as f–k” protection. Inspired by Correa’s feedback, I appeared on the dash pace for the 50 worst gamers by BsR this season and took word of some fascinating names. I additionally carried out my search the opposite method round, trying out the BsR for every of the 50 quickest runners by dash pace. These are the fellows who stood out.

The first class of poor baserunners is the genuinely quick group. Judging by their dash speeds, these guys ought to be offering optimistic worth on the bases, but that hasn’t been the case. Amed Rosario and Travis Jankowski have been non-factors, whereas Matt Vierling and Ezequiel Duran have price their golf equipment a number of runs with poor baserunning selections. Here is a fast take a look at all of their baserunning numbers this 12 months. I’ve included dash pace and BsR, in addition to the baserunning statistics from a number of different sources, to indicate that BsR isn’t the one metric that’s down on their legs:

Whenever I discover a participant with such a major discrepancy between his dash pace and baserunning numbers, the subsequent issues I take a look at are his home-to-first time and his 90-foot splits:

These are two different metrics Savant supplies to measure pace, and whereas dash pace will get all of the glory, these numbers will be telling too. After all, there’s a couple of technique to be an excellent (or unhealthy) runner – there’s a cause the Olympics has eight totally different operating occasions. Vierling could have 93rd-percentile dash pace, however his home-to-first time is nearer to common than elite. That nonetheless isn’t sufficient to elucidate his -3.3 BsR, nevertheless it uncovers a chunk of the puzzle. As for Jankowski, this additional information makes his middling BsR even stranger; you’ll be able to depend the variety of gamers with a quicker home-to-first time (min. 10 alternatives) on one hand.

It’s additionally essential to have a look at the parts of BsR to see how, precisely, every of those runners is hurting his crew:

Vierling, as you’ll be able to see, has induced the overwhelming majority of his injury on stolen base makes an attempt. He is 5-for-11 on the 12 months; no runner with greater than 5 makes an attempt has been profitable much less typically. On the plus facet, 4 of his failed makes an attempt got here in April, and he hasn’t tried greater than a single steal in a month since. Thus, he gathered practically as a lot detrimental baserunning worth in his first 23 contests as he has within the 84 video games since. However, it might be a significantly better use of his pace if he may study to steal bases extra effectively as a substitute of simply giving up the pursuit:

For the opposite three, Ultimate Base Running (UBR) is the part weighing down their baserunning worth. The numbers at Baseball Reference are kinder to Rosario and Jankowski; by Run Scoring proportion (RS%) and Extra Bases Taken proportion (XBT%), they’ve produced at an above-average fee. However, the numbers from Baseball Prospectus recommend Rosario has been beneath common at advancing on fly balls, whereas Jankowski has price his crew runs on hits and grounders.

According to Baseball Savant, Rosario makes an attempt to advance way more typically than the typical runner, and his profitable advances haven’t been sufficient to outweigh his errors. Among the 24 certified runners who try to advance 10% extra typically than common, solely three have a decrease success fee than Rosario. On prime of that, he has had a better variety of development alternatives (125) than all of these different 23 runners, so he has price his groups extra runs getting gunned down than any of them:

Meanwhile, Jankowski doesn’t try to advance as typically as a runner along with his pace ought to. Combine that along with his surprisingly low variety of development alternatives (60), and he simply hasn’t had a lot of an impression on the bases. Savant estimates he has price the Rangers greater than half a run throughout seven totally different situations through which he held up at third base as a substitute of going for house:

As for Duran, the varied metrics extra broadly agree he’s been a legal responsibility. His XBT% is nicely beneath common, and in response to Baseball Prospectus, he has price his crew runs on hits, groundballs, fly outs, and stolen base makes an attempt. Moreover, the numbers at Savant recommend he doesn’t try to advance as typically as he ought to, neither is he secure as typically as he must be.

Thus, he’s the most important wrongdoer of squandering elite dash pace. Vierling lacks stolen base know-how, Rosario is simply too aggressive, and Jankowski isn’t aggressive sufficient. Duran, sadly, simply can’t appear to get any of it proper. Despite 92nd-percentile dash pace, he has had detrimental BsR in eight out of 9 months of his large league profession:

Next up, now we have Teoscar Hernández, who I’m inserting in a class of his personal. He doesn’t fly across the bases, however he’s nonetheless a plus runner. In truth, one may say he’s quicker than he has any proper to be. As a slugging nook outfielder with some dreadful defensive metrics all through his profession, he’s not somebody you’d anticipate to have 82nd-percentile dash pace – particularly not in his age-30 season. More to the purpose, it’s exhausting to consider he can transfer that nicely when he’s been so unproductive on the bases this 12 months:

Like Vierling, Hernández isn’t fairly as quick as his dash pace would have you ever consider. According to the College Board, his dash pace percentile would earn him a B-, whereas his 90-foot break up time would obtain a failing grade:

Still, there’s no cause Hernández ought to be such a legal responsibility, and but by UBR, he has been the third-worst runner in baseball. The solely much less productive gamers have been Corey Seager (Twenty fifth-percentile dash pace) and Grandal (1st-percentile). Hernández has truly executed an excellent job avoiding double performs this 12 months (in comparison with his -2.3 wGDP final season), however his detrimental UBR far outweighs any positives:

The numbers from Baseball Savant are particularly damning for Hernández. His success fee on advance makes an attempt is 85%, the bottom determine amongst certified runners. He has price his crew extra runs by getting thrown out than another participant within the sport. His worst errors have come at second base; on 5 totally different events, he has been gunned down making an attempt to stretch a single right into a double. In his protection, he’s legged out his justifiable share of doubles, too, however a single failure is way extra dangerous than even two or three profitable makes an attempt:

The closing two baserunners who caught my eye fall into a 3rd class. Nathaniel Lowe and Max Kepler have dash speeds within the palest pink on Baseball Savant. In different phrases, pace isn’t a promoting level for both of them, however nonetheless, they shouldn’t be entering into fairly a lot hassle on the basepaths:

Lowe ranks as one of many 5 least-valuable runners within the league this 12 months, with -5.6 BsR. On a per-game foundation, Kepler has been simply as unhealthy, compiling -4.4 BsR in 27 fewer contests. To make issues worse, these two may truly be quicker than their dash speeds recommend, but they’re nonetheless hemorrhaging runs on the bases:

Neither Lowe nor Kepler has stolen a base this 12 months, however the actual drawback lies of their UBR:

More particularly, Lowe’s largest shortcoming is that he doesn’t advance on hits. Baseball Prospectus has him at common or above common in each different baserunning class, however he ranks useless final in Hit Advancement Runs. The information from Baseball Reference backs this up; his XBT% ranks eighth-worst amongst certified runners. He has scored from first base on a double solely thrice in 14 possibilities, which is half the league-average fee. Similarly, he has gone first-to-third on a single solely 4 occasions in 26 possibilities; as soon as once more, that’s half the typical fee. According to Baseball Savant, Lowe is tied for sixteenth in development alternatives, but he has tried to advance 5% much less typically than the typical participant. He’s holding himself again by actually holding himself again.

Kepler’s issues are extra different. His XBT% is beneath common, and his development success fee ranks 287th out of 298 certified runners. However, he additionally hasn’t had many possibilities to advance. He ranks 172nd with solely 75 development alternatives, per Baseball Savant. He has discovered himself on first base when a single was hit solely 14 occasions, and he’s been on first for a double solely twice. From 2020-22, Kepler racked up 8.1 BsR, 5 Rbaser, and 4.8 BRR. Considering his previous success and above-average dash pace, I’m inclined to consider he can flip issues round with extra alternatives (and with extra time faraway from the leg accidents that plagued him earlier this season). After all, we’re speaking concerning the man who pulled off this baserunning stunt and nonetheless legged out a double:

By and enormous, one of the best basketball gamers are tall, one of the best weightlifters are robust, and one of the best baserunners are quick. It’s simply widespread sense. Still, being sluggish doesn’t should be excuse for poor efficiency on the bases (simply look at Freddie Freeman), nor it’s the solely cause a participant may wrestle on the basepaths. From slowpokes like Correa to speedsters like Duran (and all of the Lowes and Keplers in between), some runners merely don’t profit from their wheels.

All stats and rankings by means of August 30.