“The Thing” About Alex Cobb’s Nearly No-Hitter

Late on Tuesday evening, baseball followers all around the world tuned their dials to the ninth inning of the Giants and Reds’ matchup in San Francisco. Through eight innings and 25 batters, Giants starter Alex Cobb had allowed only a single baserunner on a Casey Schmitt error, whereas setting down the opposite 24 so as. In the ninth, Cobb sandwiched a stroll between two routine fly outs earlier than leaving a splitter over the guts of the plate to Spencer Steer, who crushed an opposite-field liner previous the outstretched glove of proper fielder Luis Matos to finish the no-hitter and the shutout. While a splitter ended Cobb’s no-hit bid tantalizingly near completion, it’s additionally the rationale his try received that far within the first place. Even impartial of Cobb’s good outing, his splitter made historical past in its personal approach on Tuesday evening.

Before going into the splitter, let’s speak about Cobb’s common strategy to pitching. He’ll attempt to catch you off guard with a knuckle curveball on the primary pitch, hoping to steal strike one (9 of the 11 curveballs in his full sport had been on first pitches), however after that he nearly completely throws sinkers and splitters in near-equal proportion. These two pitches function equally – each leverage the facility of seam-shifted wake to maximise arm-side motion, lacking barrels and getting batters to hammer the ball into the bottom after they make contact. But a fast take a look at the plate self-discipline metrics reveals his distinct objectives in using every pitch:

Like many pitchers who throw splitters, Cobb makes use of his as a weapon to get hitters to chase beneath the zone. He’ll get hitters into uncomfortable counts by filling the zone with sinkers, then throw a cut up that appears almost equivalent earlier than diving beneath their barrels. Splitters are fairly unusual within the majors – whereas 2023 has represented a peak in splitter utilization, they nonetheless solely characterize about 2% of whole pitches. While there are others who throw splitters, together with Kevin Gausman, Taijuan Walker, and most notably former NPB gamers like Shohei Ohtani, Kodai Senga, and Shintaro Fujinami, what separates Cobb from the remainder of the pack is the sheer frequency with which he throws them. In the previous three seasons, he’s ranked first, first, and second in splitter utilization price amongst beginning pitchers, throwing them 38% of the time this yr. This splitter, dubbed “The Thing,” ranks second amongst splitters to Gausman’s in pitch worth since Cobb’s debut in 2011. The Thing isn’t simply Cobb’s major secondary pitch, it turns into his solely secondary pitch in deep counts. And typically, he’ll make it his major pitch.

Cobb threw 83 splitters on Tuesday. Since the pitch monitoring period started in 2008, nobody else had ever thrown 80 splitters in a single sport. Or 70, for that matter. Heck, in addition to a lone Brad Penny begin in 2010 with 66 splitters, nobody else had even thrown 60. Cobb’s shattering of the single-game splitter report wasn’t only a results of his pitch rely (his 131 pitches thrown is the very best since Mike Fiers‘ no-hitter in 2019); he ranks behind only Penny in single-game splitter percentage, as they comprised 63.4% of his total offerings. Even throwing 50% splitters in a game is a rare occurrence, though it’s unsurprising to see Cobb dominating that leaderboard as properly. In reality, all 9 of his majority-splitter video games have come prior to now two seasons:

Cobb’s splitter-first strategy on this sport provided many benefits over his typical plan of assault, which entails utilizing sinkers to arrange the splitter. The first – and most evident – could be seen from a fast look at his splits (no pun supposed). His splitter is a darned efficient pitch, main his arsenal in chases, swinging strikes, floor balls, wOBA towards, and total run worth. If you will have a pitch that may do nearly all the pieces properly, why not throw extra of them?

Second, this transformation in pitch utilization was doubtless a results of advance scouting on the Giants’ half. While the Reds’ offense is center of the pack versus sinkers, they rank thirteenth within the NL in wOBA towards offspeed pitches. One hitter who significantly struggles towards offspeed stuff is TJ Friedl, hitting simply .167 with a 34% whiff price. Cobb capitalized on this weak point by throwing him 11 splitters in comparison with simply 4 sinkers, three of which got here on his first pitches of the sport. Friedl’s 0-fer introduced his line towards splitters to a measly 1-for-19. Reds hitters swung and missed 18 instances of their effort to muster up one hit, a season excessive for Cobb. Unsurprisingly, all 18 whiffs got here towards The Thing.

Finally, scaling again the sinker in favor of the cut up has made the sinker much more efficient, particularly in taking free strikes when hitters had been anticipating a splitter to dive beneath the strike zone. While Cobb’s surface-level outcomes have been shockingly constant prior to now three years, posting ERAs within the mid-threes, he’s skilled excessive ranges of variance beneath the hood. After posting a formidable 2.80 FIP and three.15 xERA in his debut season with the Giants, his FIP has climbed by a full run and his xERA has jumped to a scary 4.64. While he’s incomes fewer whiffs than earlier than, probably the most noticeable distinction from final yr is a close to doubling of his house run price. While it’s straightforward to level to an outlier HR/FB price and declare dangerous luck, his barrel price has spiked at a price proportional to the rise in dingers.

The sinker has regressed probably the most, permitting 9 homers to this point (in comparison with simply 4 final yr) and a .365 xwOBA, the very best of any of his pitches. On common, he’s thrown his sinkers larger than every other season in his profession, stopping it from working its magic as a groundball pitch. And whereas a distinction of a pair inches could not appear important, just some mistake pitches can have an outsized impact on barrel and residential run charges. Indeed, his sinker’s Location+ has fallen from 105 to 102 over the previous two seasons, as larger sinkers are usually hit more durable and on a line. In this begin, he missed spots with each pitches alongside his arm’s path by the zone, however his means to attract chases on low splitters saved him out of harmful hitters’ counts:

If hitters are doing extra injury to the sinker than they used to, then it’s in Cobb’s curiosity to get as few swings as attainable towards it. This is the place the splitter is available in. Batters pondering of the splitter as the first pitch could quit on choices that they anticipate to maneuver out of the zone, as an alternative watching them flutter over the plate, even when positioned suboptimally. In the seventh inning, each Steer and Elly De La Cruz took first-pitch sinkers within the nitro zone, setting the desk for a barrage of splitters chased exterior the zone that led to a strikeout and groundout. Of Cobb’s 36 sinkers thrown, 17 had been taken for strikes, giving him the higher hand in numerous plate appearances. While the common hitter swings at about two-thirds of the pitches they see within the zone, Reds hitters noticed 23 in-zone sinkers and swung at simply six of them. Even after they did swing, not one of the balls put in play towards it had an xBA larger than .200. In whole, Cobb racked up 28 referred to as strikes on the evening, tied for the second most of any pitching efficiency all yr.

Leading with the splitter allowed Cobb to maximise the strengths of his wipeout pitch, whereas concurrently shielding the weaknesses of his sinker. The synergy of his arsenal, together with added velocity, has introduced Cobb to a brand new profession apex at an age when many pitchers are in decline. And he’s doing this regardless of recovering from two main accidents and briefly shedding really feel for his signature pitch. Yet, his 3.20 FIP over the previous three seasons is one of the best stretch of his profession, and he’s not too long ago added his first All-Star look to the combo. Losing a no-hitter simply two strikes away from glory could be heartbreaking, however he’s solely come again stronger from adversity earlier than. That’s simply The Thing about Alex Cobb.