The Twins and Pirates Are Heating Up on the Basepaths

When it involves stealing bases, the Central division leaders couldn’t be extra totally different. The Pirates rank first in baseball with 44 steals in 53 makes an attempt; the Twins rank final with six steals in 11. But for the previous ten video games, these two groups have been taking an analogous strategy. Since the tip of April, each have been ramping up their efforts, stealing much more typically than they did over the primary few weeks of the season. To be honest, meaning one thing fully totally different for both membership: for Pittsburgh, it means stealing at a charge we haven’t seen in years; for Minnesota, it means merely stealing in any respect. In each circumstances, it warrants a more in-depth look.

In 2022, the Twins ranked final in baseball with 38 steals and 55 stolen base makes an attempt. Their crew leaders in stolen bases, Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon, had simply six steals apiece. The Rangers, who led the league in steals, ran greater than 3 times as typically because the Twins:

Part of the issue was the lineup Minnesota was working with. Of its high 5 gamers by plate appearances, the quickest runner was Carlos Correa, who had a dash pace within the forty fourth percentile and hasn’t been a stolen base risk since his age-21 season. Luis Arraez, Gio Urshela, Jose Miranda, and Gary Sánchez have been the one different Twins with greater than 450 PA, and none of these guys is successful a footrace, to place it kindly.

Even the quickest gamers in Minnesota have been hesitant to run, nevertheless. Buxton was solely on tempo so as to add one other 4 or 5 steals had he remained wholesome; a participant along with his abilities might have simply stolen 25–30 baggage, a minimum of. Presumably, he was staying put out of an abundance of warning for his bodily security, but if that have been the one clarification, it’s odd he was operating as typically as he did. He stole sufficient bases to place himself in hurt’s method, however he wasn’t operating sufficient to maximise his worth on the basepaths. Other Twins who stole lower than you’d count on included Gordon, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler. All three had above-average dash speeds and above-average OBPs, however they tried considerably fewer steals than in 2021. In different phrases, pace wasn’t the one drawback. By all appearances, the Twins have been discouraging their gamers from taking additional bases.

It’s exhausting to grasp why the Twins would take such an strategy. It’s not as in the event that they play in a hitter’s park, the sort which may discourage small-ball ways, nor was there something about their offensive talent set that will make steals much less beneficial. Their crew batting common ranked thirteenth within the sport, and their remoted energy ranked a number of spots decrease. What’s extra, they completed final within the American League in UBR (Ultimate Base Running), which suggests they weren’t profiting from balls in play to maneuver up additional bases. It is smart {that a} crew would keep away from stealing if it had different methods of transferring runners up, however that wasn’t the case in Minnesota; the Twins led the league in plate appearances with a runner on first (and solely first) however ranked Sixteenth in plate appearances with runners in scoring place.

Manager Rocco Baldelli understood his crew was struggling on the bases, and he personally requested his predecessor, Paul Molitor, come to spring coaching to behave as a baserunning guru. But Baldelli didn’t appear significantly concerned with engaged on stolen bases. As Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes reported for The Athletic, “Swiping more bags isn’t necessarily the Twins’ focus this season.” Instead, Minnesota was concerned with “aggressive, smart base running when the ball is put in play.”

Subsequently, because the 2023 season started, the Twins hardly stole in any respect. Through their first 22 video games, they swiped only one bag in three makes an attempt, and a kind of so-called “attempts” was actually a catcher pickoff as an alternative:

Yainer Diaz catches Matt Wallner getting too far off of 1st. pic.twitter.com/Xb1HRB13I1

— Caught Stealing (@MLB_CS) April 10, 2023

Somehow, the Twins have been stealing lower than ever at a time when stolen bases have been skyrocketing across the league. To make issues worse, Minnesota’s baserunning drills within the offseason weren’t having the meant impact; the crew’s -0.4 UBR wasn’t terrible, but it surely ranked within the backside third of the league. Once once more, the Twins have been struggling to maneuver runners previous first base, rating final in baseball in plate appearances with runners in scoring place, even when adjusting for on-base share.

And then they lastly obtained the inexperienced gentle. Since April 24, the Twins have tried eight steals in 10 video games. Out of context, that quantity isn’t going to knock your socks off: It’s tied for Seventeenth-most within the sport, and 12 different groups have stolen between seven and 9 bases in that point. At the identical time, eight stolen base makes an attempt represents a exceptional turnaround for the Twins. After all, this crew didn’t steal eight bases in a 10-game span at any level final season.

By most groups’ requirements, the Twins aren’t doing something uncommon right here. It’s not as if Miranda is instantly racking up steals. The quicker guys on the crew have been operating, and so they’ve been choosing the right catchers to run in opposition to. Buxton, Kepler, Michael A. Taylor, and Willi Castro have mixed for seven of the eight makes an attempt, and the entire catchers they’ve run in opposition to have below-average pop occasions: Jose Trevino, Salvador Perez, and Yasmani Grandal. In different phrases, the Twins aren’t rolling out a model new strategy to baserunning. Simply put, the crew wants extra guys in scoring place, so it appears to be like like Baldelli goes to be giving the inexperienced gentle slightly extra typically:

The Pirates are in a complete totally different world. They’ve already swiped extra baggage than the Twins did in all the 2022 season; 14 Pirates have stolen a base (insert joke about plundering right here), and 7 have stolen a minimum of three. But very similar to the Twins, the Pirates have ramped up their stolen base efforts because the remaining week of April. Twenty-two video games into the yr, Pittsburgh ranked fourth in stolen bases (22) and fifth in stolen base makes an attempt (27). In the ten video games since, the Bucs have stolen one other 22 baggage, doubling their season complete in lower than two weeks. From April 23 to May 3, they stole a minimum of one base in 9 straight video games, with the streak solely ending Thursday afternoon in opposition to Tampa Bay. Even with the brand new guidelines, that’s a formidable feat. No crew has stolen greater than 20 bases in a nine-game span since 2016, and it’s solely been performed a handful of occasions within the final 20 years.

So what was fueling this stolen base spree? Some of it needed to do with the competitors the Pirates have been going through. They stole 12 baggage in three video games in opposition to the Dodgers, who’ve struggled to carry runners on all yr. On the flip aspect, the one catcher Pittsburgh has confronted within the final ten video games with a wonderful pop time is Christian Bethancourt, who held the Pirates to at least one stolen base in two video games.

The Pirates have been additionally giving themselves extra alternatives to steal. Over their first 22 video games, they posted a .331 OBP (twelfth in baseball). During their nine-game stolen base streak, that quantity rose to .361 (third). What’s extra, that enhance was pushed virtually fully by singles; their stroll charge and slugging share remained constant, however their crew batting common rose by 25 factors. They have been additionally hitting fewer residence runs, going from a homer each 31 plate appearances to at least one each 44. With extra runners on first and fewer residence runs to clear the bases, the Pirates had extra probabilities to steal, and so they took benefit. That helps clarify why their streak got here to an finish on Thursday; not solely have been they up in opposition to a wonderful catcher, however in addition they had simply six males attain base all day. By on-base share, it was their worst sport of the season.

It has actually helped that Pittsburgh’s quickest runner has had extra probabilities to steal. Ji Hwan Bae posted a .288 OBP by April 22, however that quantity rose to .357 within the 10 video games since. Accordingly, he has stolen extra baggage within the final 10 video games than within the first 22. His stolen base numbers, nevertheless, have elevated on the similar charge as the remainder of the crew’s. In different phrases, his work has been spectacular (eight steals within the final ten video games), but it surely’s not skewing the numbers. Simply put, all the crew has been extra aggressive, and it goes past footspeed and catchers and alternatives. Like the Twins, the Pirates have had the inexperienced gentle extra typically.

Indeed, there’s no different option to clarify Carlos Santana and his three stolen bases. The man has Sixteenth-percentile dash pace and hasn’t tried greater than 5 steals in a season since 2017. That’s not the type of man who steals third base with two outs on a whim:

Here’s one other instance of Santana stealing a bag. There’s nothing tough happening; he takes his lead, will get a very good soar, and slides in forward below the tag. A greater throw would absolutely have gotten him, however his pace (or lack thereof) isn’t the purpose. I don’t want any additional proof that the Pirates are getting extra aggressive on the basepaths than this proper right here:

If you do want slightly extra proof than a 37-year-old first baseman swiping a bag prefer it’s enterprise as typical, contemplate this: The Pirates have been far more aggressive in stealing third base over the past 10 video games. In their first 22 contests, 5 of their stolen base makes an attempt (18.5%) have been at third. Since then, they’ve tried one other eight steals of third base (30.8%); for context, the league-average charge is 13.2%. We’re speaking small samples right here, however that is additional proof that the Pirates are altering up their strategy to benefit from the brand new stolen base atmosphere. Stealing third is all about timing the pitcher and getting the proper soar, and that’s exactly what the brand new guidelines are facilitating.

The Twins and the Pirates have been two of essentially the most nice surprises over the primary month of the season. Minnesota is now the hands-down favourite within the AL Central, and Pittsburgh has formally entered the NL postseason race. As these two groups struggle to carry onto their playoff positions, they’ll be looking for aggressive benefits all yr lengthy. Perhaps an aggressive strategy on the bases is strictly what they should put them excessive.