The Yankees Have Lastly Minimize Bait on Aaron Hicks

As contractual blunders go, the seven-year, $70 million extension to which the Yankees signed Aaron Hicks in February 2019 is hardly the worst of basic supervisor Brian Cashman’s 26-season tenure. It’s not even the franchise’s worst contract to an outfielder throughout the 2010s, not when Jacoby Ellsbury’s deal for greater than twice that quantity was nonetheless on the books when the Yankees prolonged Hicks. As with Ellsbury, nonetheless, Hicks’ ongoing sequence of accidents left the Yankees hamstrung and prevented the switch-hitting middle fielder from taking part in to the potential he’d as soon as proven. On Saturday, the staff lastly lower bait, designating the 33-year-old for task with greater than two full seasons remaining on his deal.

Hicks began simply 5 video games in middle area this yr, together with 15 in left area, however he got here into the season unclear about his function, and these days his taking part in time was on the wane. With the return of middle fielder Harrison Bader from an indirect pressure that value him all of April, Hicks had made simply two spot begins in center pasture and one in left since May 10, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jake Bauers filling the latter spot, although to not any nice impact. No matter Hicks’ function, he was unable to supply a lot of an offensive spark, hitting simply .188/.263/.261 with one homer and a 49 wRC+ in 76 plate appearances. His 2% barrel charge and 22.4% hard-hit charge each positioned in single-digit percentiles amongst batters with a minimum of 70 PA, and his xwOBA is the majors’ lowest at that cutoff:

Hicks truly had his first three-hit sport of the season in final Thursday’s 4–2 win over the Blue Jays, in his penultimate sport as a Yankee; that output matched his earlier hit whole for May, unfold over 9 video games and 23 PA. But even with that massive sport, Yankees left fielders ranked lifeless final within the majors with a 63 wRC+ by Sunday, although Hicks solely accounted for rather less than one-third of the plate appearances there:

A 2008 first-round decide by the Twins out of Woodrow Wilson High School in Long Beach, California, Hicks was rushed to the majors, skipping over Triple-A. He may have used the event time, because the three partial seasons (2013–15) he spent in Minnesota have been every interrupted by demotions, and solely the final of these was any good (96 wRC+ and a couple of.0 WAR with 11 homers and 13 steals in 97 video games). The Twins traded him to the Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy in November 2015, however he landed within the Bronx with a convincing thud, hitting simply .217/.281/.336 (64 wRC+) with -0.3 WAR in 123 video games. But he then emerged as a really productive participant, hitting a mixed .255/.368/.470 (128 wRC+) with 7.0 WAR in 2017–18. After lacking 10 weeks because of indirect strains in 2017, he set profession highs in video games performed (137), homers (27) and WAR (4.0) in ’18, a efficiency that enticed the Yankees to lock him up with an extension.

With Hicks heading into his age-29 season, the contract seemed to be overly lengthy, however it’s greatest understood as a forerunner of the epic pacts for the likes of Xander Bogaerts, Aaron Judge, Manny Machado, and Trea Turner that we noticed this previous offseason — offers that dilute the common annual worth and make maneuvering round Competitive Balance Tax thresholds a bit simpler. Even at $7 million or $8 million per win, the implication that Hicks may produce about 10 WAR over the lifetime of the contract was hardly unreasonable.

After signing, nonetheless, the highway acquired bumpier. A decrease again pressure and an elbow harm that culminated in postseason Tommy John surgical procedure restricted Hicks to 59 video games in 2019, although he hit for a 103 wRC+. His three-run homer off the Astros’ Justin Verlander keyed a 4–1 win in Game 5 of the ALCS, at a degree when the Yankees have been down three video games to 1. That was in all probability his peak second in pinstripes.

The COVID-19 pandemic gave Hicks ample time to recuperate from surgical procedure with out additional time on the IL. He was again within the lineup on Opening Day in 2020 and hit a productive .225/.379/.414 (120 wRC+) with 1.1 WAR in 54 video games. But he was dreadful within the early moving into 2021, managing only a 76 wRC+ in 32 video games earlier than a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist sidelined him for the season. He returned to play 130 video games final yr, along with his 13.7% stroll charge and defensive potential propping up a limp bat; he hit .216/.330/.313 (90 wRC+) however was nonetheless value 1.4 WAR. His season ended on a very down notice throughout Game 5 of the Division Series towards the Guardians, when he injured his left knee in a collision with Cabrera (then taking part in shortstop) and needed to be helped off the sector.

Even with deadline commerce acquisition Andrew Benintendi, who didn’t play after September 2 because of a damaged hamate bone in his proper wrist, departing through free company, Cashman didn’t do something to improve the Yankees’ left area scenario over the winter. Instead he retained Hicks and deliberate for Judge, who had spent extra time in middle area than proper throughout his historic 62-homer season, to identify in left occasionally a minimum of at Yankee Stadium, with Giancarlo Stanton taking part in the easier-to-cover proper area. But between Bader’s indirect pressure and Stanton’s left hamstring pressure which has sidelined him since mid-April, that plan has fallen aside, with Judge once more taking part in extra middle and each Hicks and Cabrera (.203/.258/.312 total in 152 PA) getting far an excessive amount of publicity given their manufacturing. Arguably, common play might need helped Hicks get on observe, however it doesn’t precisely say nice issues in regards to the roster building and deployment that Kiner-Falefa, a 28-year-old transformed infielder with a profession 80 wRC+, was taking part in forward of him at the same time as he discovered the ropes within the outfield.

By DFA’ing Hicks, the Yankees are all however sure to wind up consuming the remaining cash on his deal, because it’s extremely unlikely he’ll be claimed on waivers. That involves about $27.5 million, with round $7.5 million for the rest of this season, then $9.5 million in each 2024 and ’25, and a $1 million buyout on his $12.5 million possibility for ’26. It’s doable the Yankees may commerce him in a deal for one more dangerous contract, however until they’ve an thought of the best way to repair that participant — say, somebody like Hunter Dozier, simply DFA’d by the Royals with $12 million nonetheless owed, and -2.4 WAR because the begin of 2021 — it’s not clear why they might achieve this.

(For those that clamored for such a rotation-patching transfer for Madison Bumgarner, himself DFA’d by the Diamondbacks with about $34 million nonetheless owed, he’s not solely free expertise now, but in addition been unwilling to adapt to the age of analytics to tweak his repertoire and mechanics, per a brand new report by The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan, which confirms what the info strongly implied. That stance that will by no means fly within the Bronx below pitching coach Matt Blake, to say nothing of Bumgarner’s low chance of survival within the AL East’s robust ballparks.)

The Yankees changed Hicks on the roster with Greg Allen, a 30-year-old switch-hitting outfielder whom they acquired from the Red Sox in trade for 18-year-old Mexican righty Diego Hernandez and money issues. Allen is a Quad-A sort who has totaled simply 2.0 WAR with a 73 wRC+ (.233/.300/.339) in 801 PA over components of seven seasons. Drafted and developed by Cleveland, he spent 2021 in New York after being acquired from the Padres and hit .270/.417/.432 in 48 PA over 15 video games with the Yankees, most notably going 5-for-5 in stolen bases. That hints at his his present match as a tactical weapon off the bench who can pinch-run and play protection, and he’s already proven what he can do. On Saturday towards the Reds, he pinch-ran for catcher Ben Rortvedt because the Manfred Man within the tenth inning, taking third on a fly ball after which scoring on a Judge single as the primary of three runs in a 7–4 win. On Sunday, he pinch-ran for Bauers, stole second, took third on a wild pitch, and scored on an Anthony Volpe double, then hit a two-out triple within the ninth of what turned out to be a 4–1 win.

Even with Hicks gone, the Yankees haven’t any scarcity of replacement-level fodder on their roster in Cabrera (55 wRC+, -0.4 WAR), Kiner-Falefa (56 wRC+, -0.1 WAR), Bauers (75 wRC+, -0.1 WAR), and Willie Calhoun (84 wRC+, -0.2 WAR). All too usually, a minimum of two of these gamers are within the lineup on a given day, that at a time when the staff can also be making do with a scarcity of offense from its catchers (Jose Trevino hasn’t replicated final yr’s All-Star kind and is now down with a hamstring pressure) and third basemen (Josh Donaldson has been out since April 5, and DJ LeMahieu has been notably much less efficient there than elsewhere).

The returns of Stanton and Donaldson will improve two of these roster spots. Last week, each have been reported as near starting rehab assignments; the latter hasn’t performed since April 5 because of a proper hamstring pressure that he reinjured on a rehab task after which a sliced thumb. While neither is prone to revert to the shape that helped them win MVP awards within the final decade, Stanton was hitting for a 131 wRC+ earlier than getting injured, and Donaldson did handle a 97 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR due to his strong protection at third final yr. That beats the 80 wRC+ the staff has gotten on the spot so far, together with an 89 in about 62% of the PA from the place by by LeMahieu, who has hit for a 106 total. Donaldson has misplaced favor with followers because the Tim Anderson incident final yr, however as long as he can approximate a league-average participant, the Yankees are unlikely to eat the remainder of his contract (about $23 million together with an $8 million buyout for subsequent yr) as they did with Hicks.

The excellent news for the Yankees is that after going simply 15–14 in March and April and even with the aforementioned weak spots (to not point out the short-handed rotation), they’re 14–6 this month, gaining 2.5 video games within the standings even whereas going simply 3–4 towards the AL East-leading Rays. Judge has hit a jaw-dropping .378/.491/.911 with seven homers in 57 PA after lacking 10 video games because of a proper hip harm. Anthony Rizzo has six homers and a 175 wRC+ this month, and Bader has added a 127 wRC+ in addition to sturdy protection in middle area to the combo. Combine that with Luis Severino lastly making his 2023 debut on Sunday to fill one of many two holes within the rotation (Carlos Rodón continues to be coping with a continual again difficulty and is idling in long-toss mode), and the Yankees are immediately wanting far more entire.

As for Hicks, I doubt we’ve seen the final of him on the main league stage. Barring a shock commerce or waiver declare earlier than his seven days in DFA limbo run out, whoever indicators him will solely must pay the prorated league minimal wage. He’s nonetheless a helpful defender, and possibly some hitting guru can assist him rework his swing. For no matter purpose, that by no means occurred for him within the Bronx, and it looms as a pricey mistake.