Jordan Walker, the Cardinals’ phenomenal younger outfielder, is off to a scintillating begin to the season. In his first 10 video games, he’s hitting a formidable .326/.370/.512, comfortably higher than league common. The Cardinals promoted Walker to the majors regardless of a positional logjam, and he’s accomplished nothing to make their job simpler; he appears like a foundational a part of their future. And oh yeah, perhaps you’ve heard, he’s on fairly the hitting streak.
You in all probability didn’t come right here for a lecture from me, however right here’s a fast one about hitting streaks. I feel they’re actually cool. I feel it’s wonderful that Walker is now in second place for the longest hitting streak to start out a profession for gamers below 21 years outdated, and that he handed Ted Williams for that honor. That’s superior, and I’m positive that he’ll treasure that reminiscence for years to return. Eleven video games! It’s actually wonderful. I simply don’t assume it’s helpful for my functions, which is to marvel how good Jordan Walker is. Here’s one instance of a success that stored Walker’s streak alive, the only hit he recorded on April 3:
That’s clearly a success, and I’d even say that it’s a very good piece of hitting. What does it should do with how nicely Walker is adjusting to the majors? Not a lot, I’d enterprise to say. The streak is an incredible achievement, it’s tremendous cool, and I don’t assume it’s value mentioning past that.
With that out of the way in which, I’ve two burning questions on Walker: how are groups pitching him, and the way is he responding to it? It’s arduous to overstate Walker’s uncooked energy. He’s a mountain of a person, 6-foot-6 and muscular, and he’s wasted no time demonstrating that energy within the huge leagues. He’s within the 97th percentile for optimum exit velocity; in different phrases, he hits the ball arduous. He’s additionally within the 92nd percentile for hard-hit charge; he’s hitting the ball arduous constantly. That informs each the best technique to make use of in opposition to him and his personal response.
Thus far, pitchers aren’t treating Walker with child gloves, energy however. He’s seen fastballs on 61% of first pitches, proper consistent with the general league common. Pitchers aren’t difficult him excessively within the strike zone (52% zone charge, bang on league common), however they’re hardly treating him like Aaron Judge. I feel that makes numerous sense, to be trustworthy: if I had been a pitcher, I’d be attempting to get Walker into disadvantageous counts in order that I might use my secondary pitches.
Walker is countering this technique by being extremely aggressive. He’s swinging at 46% of first pitches total, and at a 58% charge after they’re within the strike zone. That’s an amazing choice; you’re not imagined to feed somebody like Walker fastballs within the strike zone, and he appears to be specializing in placing when these pitches are almost certainly. Eric Lauer realized that the arduous approach:
It’s not all sunshine and lollipops for Walker, although. The Brewers had success throwing him first pitch sliders within the zone, and the Rockies have intermittently tried the identical plan. At solely 20 and with no expertise above Double-A earlier than this yr, he hasn’t seen numerous huge league-caliber breaking balls. He’s developing empty on 36% of his swings in opposition to breaking balls regardless of making strong swing choices in opposition to them; he sports a 31% chase charge in opposition to curves and sliders, which is roughly the foremost league common. Again, that’s coming from a 20-year-old who’s dealing with main league pitching for the primary time.
That chase charge solutions one query that you simply would possibly marvel about from his minuscule stroll charge: it doesn’t seem like pitchers will have the ability to throw him junk outdoors of the strike zone and keep away from difficult him. Or a minimum of, that’s true relying in your definition of junk. Walker hasn’t seen a ton of changeups to this point, however he’s chased them at an above-average charge, and he’s swung typically at fastballs above the highest of the zone too.
That’s the early e-book on Walker: assault him excessive and inside with fastballs. He’s but to chase a single fastball away; as a substitute, he’s concentrating on pitches inside that he can activate. Take a take a look at all of his fastball chases to this point this yr:
That’s the sort of decision-making that Walker confirmed within the minors as nicely, and he’s constantly turned it into loud contact. It’s arduous to say that these swings at inside fastballs give pitchers a simple out – positive, in case you can put it there, Walker would possibly chase, however in case you depart it over the within edge, he’s liable to crush it. He’s superb at getting his arms round and pulling inside fastballs, and letting Walker pull a fastball is the very last thing that pitchers dealing with him need to do.
It’s too early within the season to learn a lot into statistics, even process-driven ones like chase charge and in-zone swing charge. Despite that, I really feel snug saying that Walker gained’t be blown away by main league pitching. He has a good bit of swing-and-miss in him, and he in all probability can’t hold operating a 15.2% swinging strike charge whereas solely placing out 19.6% of the time. But he’s not chasing wildly or falling sufferer to the identical pitch again and again; he’s merely a power-on-contact marvel who sacrifices some contact to get to it.
If you’re in search of an admittedly optimistic comparability, contemplate Julio Rodríguez, one other prime prospect who reached the majors in his age-21 season (Walker will flip 21 subsequent month). Like Walker, Rodríguez has an expansive however hardly irresponsible method on the plate. Rodríguez additionally swings by way of his fair proportion of pitches in pursuit of scalded contact. In truth, Walker’s first 11 video games look rather a lot like Julio’s first season within the majors, with the strikeouts and walks each turned down a bit:
High-Swing, High-Power Hitters
| Batter | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Contact% | SwStr% | BB% | Okay% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Walker | 38.9% | 75.4% | 71.9% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 19.6% |
| Julio Rodríguez, 2022 | 37.1% | 71.4% | 71.2% | 14.4% | 7.1% | 25.9% |
So is Walker the subsequent Julio Rodríguez, destined for stardom and an eight-figure contract? I wouldn’t go that far, for a number of causes. First, Rodríguez is an effective defender at a premium place. Walker would possibly but flip into an amazing proper fielder – he’s quick and has a cannon arm – however he’s new to the outfield and nonetheless appears unsettled on the market. If you’re fearful not about whether or not his bat will play within the huge leagues – I feel this query has already been answered – however whether or not Walker will produce like a star going ahead, defensive (and baserunning) worth issues.
Next, there’s the pattern measurement problem, which nearly goes with out saying. If Walker hits like this all yr, nice! It’ll take, nicely, all yr to seek out that out, although. Walker’s total offensive numbers are nice, however they’re unsustainable in a ton of various methods. He’ll stroll extra, he’ll run a decrease BABIP, and he’ll in all probability strike out extra. A full-season line would possibly find yourself with an analogous wRC+, however there’s numerous baseball to be performed earlier than then.
The final fear signal is maybe additionally crucial. A sport plan of swinging actually arduous and doing numerous injury while you make contact clearly works within the main leagues; loads of nice hitters, Rodríguez included, use it to nice impact. To actually make that plan sing, nevertheless, it’s worthwhile to put the ball within the air while you make contact. Thus far, Walker has been hitting extra grounders than you’ll be able to shake a stick at, and that’s going to be an issue if he can’t flip it round.
Walker has put 34 balls in play in his quick main league profession, and 19 of them have been grounders. That’s a disastrous ratio, and whereas he’s nonetheless doing loads of injury on contact, hitting for Walker’s stage of energy with so many grounders is an inconceivable stability to strike. He’s produced a gaudy .674 wOBA when he places the ball within the air, a mark that might have ranked sixth within the majors final season – and but solely a .455 wOBA on contact total, which might have ranked within the again finish of the highest 20.
That’s nonetheless elite manufacturing on contact, however you’ll be able to see the issue: the low-value grounders drag down the actually spectacular contact he’s producing when he places the ball within the air. Given that Walker will in all probability strike out a good quantity, maximizing injury when he makes contact is crucial.
With all that stated, ought to Cardinals followers be fearful? I don’t assume so. We’re speaking a few 34-batted-ball pattern right here, not a yr of futility. Walker’s minor league batted ball distribution was roughly regular, and he doesn’t seem to have modified his swing to start out punching the ball into the bottom. He’s not swinging an excessive amount of at low pitches or completely looking sinkers.
Want one other mind-set about it? Paul Goldschmidt, who gained the NL MVP final season on the again of his frequent and loud air contact, had three non-overlapping 11-game stretches the place he posted a groundball charge of 55% or increased. Judge has had 5 such stretches up to now two years. Even fly ball hitters undergo grounder-heavy durations.
If you’re questioning when to start out worrying about whether or not the grounders will follow Walker to his detriment, the proper reply is “right now, but only a little bit.” Obviously, I’d really feel higher about his probability of avoiding a destiny much like that of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in his first few years within the league, losing exit velocity on grounders, if he had been launching all the things within the air.
But in case you’re questioning how fearful to be, I’ll say this: I don’t begin paying a lot consideration to groundball or fly ball charge – for hitters particularly – till roughly 80 balls in play, 30 video games or so right into a season. I picked that quantity based mostly on an outdated however indispensable Russell Carleton article. That’s the 50% reliability level for groundball charge, which implies, very roughly, that half noise and half ability produced that consequence. It doesn’t imply that charge will persist without end, or that it’s a very good estimate of a participant’s true expertise. It simply signifies that by 80 balls in play, you can begin to make certain that one thing the participant is doing is contributing to their outcomes, relatively than simply statistical noise.
What does that imply for Walker? It signifies that it’s too quickly to know what it means. That’s an unsatisfying reply, I do know, however it’s an trustworthy one. It’s April 12. There’s nonetheless numerous baseball to be performed. In two weeks, Walker could have doubled his main league observe report. In a month, he could have tripled it. The early returns on Walker are promising: he has the light-tower uncooked energy all of us anticipated and isn’t getting overwhelmed by huge league flexible stuff. How will that translate right into a batting line? We’ll simply have to attend and see.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com