This Time, Ronald Acuña Jr. Is Again

Sometimes there’s a distinction between returning and being again. After tearing his proper ACL in July of 2021, Ronald Acuña Jr. returned on April 28, 2022. He put up a stable 2.1 WAR over 119 video games, a 2.9-win tempo. Think of him as Paul McCartney in 1970, releasing the stable however uninspiring McCartney on the heels of a regrettable rupture. This yr, Acuña is again. He’s Paul McCartney in 1971, authoring an all-time traditional in Ram. Please don’t look at this metaphor any additional as a result of it might probably’t stand as much as scrutiny (however please give Ram a hear as a result of it might probably).

Acuña has put up 4.9 WAR and a 166 wRC+ and racked up outfield assists on throws stunning sufficient to make an angel cry (or a Cardinal, or a Padre).

Acuña is slashing .335/.412./.589, and for what it’s value, his 166 wRC+ is perhaps the results of a little bit of dangerous luck. His .459 xwOBA is 34 factors increased than his precise wOBA. It’s additionally the best within the league, even increased than You Know Who.

Over at Baseball Prospectus, Robert Orr identified that Acuña has extra confidence in his knee. He’s getting deeper into his batting stance and placing extra weight on his again leg than he did final yr, permitting for a extra explosive swing. He’s swinging much less each inside and outdoors the zone, forcing pitchers to throw extra strikes regardless that he’s hitting the ball more durable than ever. If the season have been to finish right this moment, Acuña’s 94.9 mph common exit velocity could be tied with 2017 Aaron Judge for the eighth-highest ever recorded.

Inside the zone, it’s not simply that Acuña is swinging much less; he’s additionally focusing greater than ever on the internal half and eschewing the skin nook altogether. On the left is his swing price over the course of his profession, and on the proper is his swing price this season.

Focusing inside and down has raised his groundball price, however as Orr famous, it’s additionally allowed him to fulfill the ball out in entrance of the plate, driving the ball to the pull facet and halving his popup price.

Acuña is taking extra strikes this yr, however he’s making up for it by whiffing method much less. He’s minimize his strikeout price by an astonishing 11.5 share factors, from 23.6% to 12.4%. I checked strikeout charges all the way in which again to 1900; excluding the shortened 2020 season, solely two certified gamers have ever dropped their strikeout price by 10 share factors:

Acuña’s play has been so exceptional that any article about him is in peril of devolving into a listing of enjoyable information.

• Did that when Acuña’s on the plate, outfielders play deeper than they do for anybody else within the league?
• Did that he not too long ago set a trendy period document by both homering or stealing a base in 13 consecutive video games?
• Did that, going by Baseball Savant’s run values, Acuña is the one participant who’s been a internet optimistic in opposition to each single kind of pitch they’ve confronted? Even Luis Arraez, who strikes out roughly as soon as each time they launch a brand new Fast & Furious film, has detrimental marks in opposition to sweepers and slurves.

But Acuña’s hitting shouldn’t be essentially our subject for right this moment. Over at The Athletic, Jayson Stark handed him the first-half NL MVP trophy and famous that Acuña isn’t simply making an attempt to affix the 40–40 membership; he’s making an attempt to discovered the 40–75 membership.

Acuña has stolen 41 bases, 15 greater than Corbin Carroll, who’s second within the NL. (Carroll has a stable case as finest baserunner within the recreation, however that’s additionally not our foremost subject.) The solely method Acuña wouldn’t win the NL’s stolen base crown is that if he will get injured or if Elly De La Cruz decides to proceed stealing bases three at a time.

Acuña can also be simply two behind American League chief Esteury Ruiz, giving him an actual shot on the MLB title. (In miserable information, Ruiz simply hit the 10-day IL with a proper shoulder subluxation, which could make Acuña’s path to the MLB crown even simpler. Carroll had his personal proper shoulder scare, however he hasn’t missed a recreation and appears to be okay.) Acuña is at present on tempo for 75 steals, and if he have been to make it, he’d be the primary participant to hit that mark since Jose Reyes in 2007.

There are those that will argue that Acuña’s stolen base totals imply much less this yr as a result of new rule adjustments. I don’t agree, however I’m much less involved concerning the precise numbers. I care about Acuña’s thieving prowess relative to the league as a result of he has a good chance of successful the National League MVP and the stolen base crown in the identical yr. Depending in your most well-liked taste of WAR, Acuña has so far been 0.6 and 1.8 wins higher than another participant within the NL, and he’s main the very best workforce in baseball. He’s the plain front-runner.

No one has taken house each an MVP and a stolen base crown since 2001, although there have been some shut calls in latest reminiscence. You may make an argument that Trea Turner deserved to win the NL MVP when he stole 32 bases in 2021, and nearly all people with an web connection made the argument that Mike Trout deserved the AL MVP when he stole 49 bases and put up 10.1 WAR in 2012. Regardless, right here’s the whole listing of gamers who’ve truly achieved this specific bifecta since they began awarding MVP Awards (or their equal) in 1911:

That’s a listing of six gamers, 5 of whom have their faces on bronze plaques upstate. Ichiro is the one participant to win the MVP and lead the league in stolen bases within the final 40 years. We is perhaps due, as this feat occurs roughly each 18 years. Still, Acuña is on tempo for 9 WAR, greater than 4 of these Hall of Famers, and 75 stolen bases, considerably greater than all of them.

The fascinating factor is that Acuña is definitely slower this yr than he’s ever been. His 28 mph dash velocity is down from 28.5 final yr, and his profession excessive of 29.7 as a rookie. His home-to-first time is 4.31 seconds, up from 4.27 final yr and 4.1 as a rookie. His velocity continues to be above common in comparison with the general participant inhabitants, however proper round common for an outfielder.

In some methods, Acuña is the right participant for this second. If you’ll recall the sudden juicing of the baseball again within the mid-2010s, gamers with middling quantities of pop have been the most important beneficiaries. The Giancarlo Stantons of the world don’t want just a few additional ft of carry to hit house runs, and the Nick Madrigals want loads quite a lot of additional ft. The Francisco Lindors have been those who noticed warning their monitor energy flip into house run energy.

This isn’t an ideal comparability, as a result of on this yr’s friendlier stolen bases envirement, steals are up amongst all gamers besides the very slowest. Still, Acuña finds himself in an identical candy spot. He’s not a burner, however he doesn’t must be to clear this new decrease bar. Above-average velocity is lots, particularly when it’s possessed by a veteran with seasons of 29 and 37 stolen bases underneath his belt.

This alternative will get mixed with two elements. The first is that Acuña is at all times on base: His .412 OBP is third in baseball, and per Baseball-Reference, his 167 occasions on base lead the majors. Per Baseball Prospectus, he’s is second to Ruiz with 44 stolen base alternatives and second to Steven Kwan with 167 baserunning alternatives.

The second issue may be very easy: Acuña simply desires to run. Here’s what he informed Jordan Shusterman in June: “Once I regained myself and got back to where I wanted to be, I just told myself that I was going to steal as many bases as possible.” Turns out that was a reasonably good plan. At this level, when Acuña decides he’s going to do one thing, we should always in all probability assume that he’s going to do it.