Trea Turner’s Slide Has Not Been Clean

It could not have ended the stoop he’s fallen into since mid-April, however Trea Turner picked an excellent time to snap out of a 2-for-20 skid that started final weekend. On Wednesday afternoon in opposition to the Diamondbacks, the Phillies have been trailing, 5–3, and all the way down to their last out, in peril not solely of being swept within the three-game collection but additionally of shedding for the eighth time in 10 video games. Then José Ruiz hung a curveball that Turner didn’t miss, pounding it for a game-tying two-run homer. The Phillies gained in 10 innings, however whether or not this the beginning of a turnaround for Turner — who, like Manny Machado, is off to a tough begin on his new $300 million contract — stays to be seen.

The homer was Turner’s fifth of the 12 months and his first since May 6. Even with it and Thursday’s subsequent 0-for-5 in opposition to the Braves, his offensive numbers look a complete lot extra like what the Phillies bought from their shortstops (Didi Gregorius, Bryson Stott, Johan Camargo, and Edmundo Sosa) final 12 months than what Turner did with the Dodgers:

Turner has been frank about his struggles. After Monday’s loss to the Diamondbacks, he advised reporters, “I’m honest with myself, I’ve sucked.” While which may be overstating the case a bit, he hasn’t provided something near his superstar-level play of the previous two seasons, and solely by respectable (if small pattern) defensive metrics at shortstop (1.6 UZR, 1 OAA, -2 DRS) is he above alternative stage. Using our UZR/OAA inputs, his 0.6 WAR prorates to 2.0 over a full season — kind of common — however utilizing DRS, his 0.3 bWAR prorates to only 1.0 WAR, or decidedly beneath common.

Either manner, these numbers are far in need of Turner’s 2021 and ’22 performances, when he was merely among the many sport’s elite, certainly one of solely two place gamers to prime 6.0 WAR in each seasons (José Ramírez was the opposite); for the span, his 13.2 WAR ranked second solely to Aaron Judge (17.0). Though his 2022 offensive numbers with the Dodgers have been not so good as the 12 months earlier than (.328/.375/.536, 28 HR, 142 wRC+), they have been distinctive sufficient that he netted an 11-year, $300 million contract with the reigning National League champions as he headed into his age-30 season. His addition made loads of sense no less than within the brief time period; he figured to slip easily into the Phillies’ lineup as a considerable and dynamic improve to a obtrusive weak point on a group that overcame a nasty begin and bought so far as Game 6 of the World Series.

It’s not exhausting to identify the place Turner is out of whack, no less than superficially. He’s hanging out 26.1% of the time, up from final 12 months’s 18.5%, which coincidentally additionally occurs to be his profession mark. Other than his 44-PA cup of espresso with the Nationals in 2015, he’s by no means even struck out 20% of the time. His swinging-strike charge has spiked to 17.2%, up from final 12 months’s 12.8% and nicely above his profession mark of 10.5%. Yikes. It seems Turner is chasing much more pitches than normal, a part of a longer-term development:

Through 2021, Turner had a 29.2% chase charge, with a excessive of 32.6% in ’16, his official rookie season. Last 12 months, it climbed to 36.4%; this 12 months, he’s at an astronomical 42.2%, which by Thursday ranked ninth amongst all batting title qualifiers. Meanwhile, his general swing charge has climbed from 46% in 2015–21 (together with 49.2% within the final of these 12 months) to 51.1% final 12 months and 53.7% this 12 months. Pitchers have caught on; the place they threw him strikes on 43.3% of pitches in 2021, that’s all the way down to 37.6% this 12 months.

As with Machado, the elevated swing and chase charges type a sample that implies a participant is perhaps urgent, as Eno Sarris famous a couple of years in the past, solely on this case it’s a multiyear sample. A participant placing further stress on himself to earn an enormous contract after which to stay as much as it will hardly be unprecedented, although. So lengthy as we’re studying narratives from the information, there’s definitely one to glean from analyzing a graph of Turner’s rolling chase charge and wOBA. Here’s one going again to the beginning of final season utilizing a seven-game (“week”) foundation:

My admittedly subjective interpretation of that is that it appears as if early in 2022, Turner felt like he was getting too selective and too affected person, and that he was rewarded for increasing his zone, no less than at occasions. That method didn’t work as nicely later within the season, nevertheless. Through the tip of July, he hit .309/.351/.501 (139 wRC+) and chased 35.1% of pitches exterior the zone, however from August 1 onward, he hit simply .278/.328/.407 (109) and chased 38.5% of pitches. The inflated chase charge knowledge jibes fairly nicely with Turner’s personal rationalization from Monday, when he was important of his personal swing selections:

“I feel like it’s all decision-making. The swing’s felt pretty good now for two, three weeks. But the decision-making is pretty hit-or-miss. I feel like when you’re going good you really don’t think about any of those things. You’re just kind of hitting and reacting. I feel like at times in those last couple at bats it just felt like that. Not thinking about anything else other than seeing the baseball. Sometimes that’s easier said than done. It’s that rhythm at the plate that every one of us is looking for. Sometimes you have it and sometimes you don’t.”

Drilling down a bit additional, one of many unsettling issues about Turner’s efficiency is that he’s being eaten alive by four-seam fastballs (word that the information right here and for the following few sections is thru Wednesday, not Thursday):

Turner is whiffing extra typically and making worse contact in opposition to four-seamers than at another level in his profession, cup-of-coffee season excluded. Within these numbers is a few small-sample weirdness. For instance, he’s 1-for-22 in opposition to lefties on four-seamers, although his xSLG and xwOBA in opposition to them are greater than in opposition to righties. His decline right here is so drastic that he’s gone from being 5 runs above common in opposition to the heater final 12 months to 11 beneath common earlier than we’re a 3rd of the way in which by this season. In truth, no batter has been worse in opposition to a single pitch kind to date:

On the idea that he is perhaps having extra hassle with greater velocities, I checked, however that wasn’t actually the case as far as I might inform; fastballs 95 mph or greater account for about two-thirds of the above, however dial as much as 97 mph, and the samples get microscopic when it comes to batted ball occasions and don’t inform us a lot. What is evident from the information is that Turner isn’t dealing with elevated four-seamers. Here’s how he’s doing in opposition to those within the higher third of the zone or greater:

Turner’s whiff and swinging-strike charges are about 10 factors greater than final 12 months. He’s already greater than midway to final 12 months’s complete of batted ball occasions on this space, and his numbers up there are abysmal. These do embrace him going 0-for-13 with a .070 xBA on pitches above the zone, in comparison with 3-for-19 with a .148 xBA all of final season. Chasing excessive warmth too typically is costing him.

Turner’s numbers in opposition to four-seamers within the center and backside of the zone, and beneath it, are down as nicely, albeit in smaller samples:

In each areas, his 2023 swing-and-miss charges are on par with the current previous and even higher, and the anticipated numbers are nicely forward of his precise ones, if not all the time as much as his ’21 and ’22 performances. He’s chasing only a few balls beneath the zone, by the way; the chases are rather more concentrated above the zone.

As for Turner’s performances in opposition to different pitch varieties, I’ll spare the small print besides to say that he’s punishing sliders (5 runs above common, by way of Statcast) however a run or two beneath common on sinkers, changeups, curves and cutters after having been a handful of runs above common in opposition to most of these over the previous two seasons. Overall, his high quality of contact is manner down.

Not solely is Turner hitting the ball within the air extra typically — a waste given his 99th-percentile dash velocity, notably if it’s not offset by extra energy — however most of these balls are additionally ones he’s getting below, leading to infield fly balls and cans of corn that not often go for hits; he’s 2-for-46 this 12 months on that more and more massive slice of poor contact.

Turner has already hit eight infield flies versus 12 all of final season and 16 the 12 months earlier than. Meanwhile, he has simply seven infield hits the place he had 33 final 12 months and 21 the 12 months earlier than. His xwOBA is down 55 factors from 2022 and 84 factors from ’21:

Turner is in no way the one Phillies common who has underperformed, although of the 4 others with a wRC+ beneath 100, three (Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, and Stott) are inside a degree or two of that mark, leaving solely Sosa (87 wRC+) to accompany him within the netherworld.

It wasn’t purported to be like this for the reigning NL champions, who at 23–27 discover themselves solely barely higher than they have been after they fired supervisor Joe Girardi final 12 months (22–29). It definitely wasn’t purported to be like this for Turner. The man who was purported to be the lacking piece is lacking manner too many pitches.