Vaughn Grissom Will get a Cameo as Orlando Arcia Hits the Shelf

Orlando Arcia getting the nod for the beginning shortstop job in Atlanta raised some eyebrows this spring. After all, he had regarded extra like a utility infielder in recent times than a viable beginning shortstop, and it felt a bit like that ship had lengthy since sailed. The current and future was Vaughn Grissom, our high Braves prospect final 12 months after the graduations of Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II. Grissom didn’t precisely wrestle in his debut final fall, whomping pitchers to the tune of a .293/.353/.440 line, a triple-slash that will be viable for a primary baseman, not to mention a man who can deal with quick. Yet it was Arcia who ended up with the job within the spring. It didn’t even appear to be the standard service time shenanigans, such because the Cubs swearing that Kris Bryant wanted a pair weeks to be taught to be a greater participant than Mike Olt; Grissom already had almost a 3rd of a 12 months of service time, which might have made it a bit arduous to keep up that façade.

Arcia didn’t disappoint in early play: In 13 video games, he hit .330/.400/.511 and regarded pretty comfy taking part in quick repeatedly for the primary time in a couple of years. Unfortunately, a Hunter Greene fastball had different plans for the place; his upper-90s warmth hit Arcia’s wrist throughout an at-bat, knocking him out of Wednesday’s recreation towards Cincinnati, changed by Ehire Adrianza. Initial x-rays didn’t reveal a fracture, however an MRI and CT scan on Thursday confirmed a microfracture, sending him to the injured listing. This seems to be a minor harm, and it seems as if Arcia will solely miss a pair weeks of play. Cookies don’t crumble in an identical methods, however Nick Castellanos suffered this harm in 2021 and solely missed a few weeks.

If there have been service time points concerned, the Braves may have very simply plugged in Adrianza or Braden Shewmake for a few weeks and continued to let Grissom work on his protection within the minors (he was so-so at greatest within the majors final 12 months with the glove). But discovering time at quick for Grissom, who by all studies took his demotion with humility, was nonetheless the upside play. Just as Arcia didn’t disappoint early on, he carried out very nicely for Triple-A Gwinnett, with a 1.044 OPS in 10 video games.

Last week, my colleague Jake Mailhot talked about a few of the causes we shouldn’t pooh-pooh Arcia’s expertise. Of the numerous drained Szym tropes, one I prefer to hit on steadily is my perception that well-run groups all the time attempt to give gamers each alternative to show them unsuitable. There’s not less than an opportunity that I’m responsible of doing that with Arcia, too fast to dismiss his current efficiency and letting him stay within the utility infielder barrel in my thoughts. Because there are much more causes to be fascinated about Arcia in addition to those that Jake talked about.

Spring coaching doesn’t imply a lot, however it means one thing. Back in 2015, economist Dan Rosenheck checked out spring coaching stats in a examine he introduced on the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics convention. He discovered that they didn’t imply a ton, but additionally that we must be extra cautious about laughing off the numbers as meaningless, one thing I do know I’ve been responsible of up to now (I offered Dan the ZiPS projections he used within the examine, so I’ve identified about his work and tried to be extra cautious since then). Dan was wanting on the “normal” stats: OBP and SLG and their numerous derivatives. There was no StatCast knowledge to work with at this level, and issues like exit velocity and make contact with price are typically much less unstable, which signifies that, not less than theoretically, spring enhancements in these numbers must be much more necessary than within the basic sabermetric stats (I believe I’ve a examine to do that summer season!).

Since Jake posted his piece, Arcia continued to hit, with a median exit velocity of 91.0 mph, pretty much as good as his shocking 90.7 final 12 months; getting into 2022, his profession determine was 87.1. Looking at percentages, his 42.5% hard-hit price was an enormous bounce over his 30.4% for his profession; that’s continued in a small pattern this 12 months at 51.4%, at the moment thirtieth of 196 qualifiers. In addition to hitting for extra energy, Arcia additionally confirmed shocking strides in plate self-discipline, which was one among his bugaboos with the Brewers. StatCast lists 71 complete pitches for him, which isn’t precisely the most important pool of knowledge to work with, however even over the quick time period, his plate self-discipline knowledge was extraordinarily spectacular, one thing I by no means anticipated to say about him. Of the 41 pitches out-of-zone he confronted this spring, he solely provided at six of them (14.6%), a price that’s in ultra-elite Joey Votto/Juan Soto territory. Even with a low qualifying standing of 100 plate appearances, one of the best in baseball final 12 months falls nicely wanting that (Josh VanMeter at 18.9%). This wasn’t simply passivity at work, both; Arcia swung at 70% of in-zone pitches in the course of the spring, proper in step with the MLB common of 67.5% in 2023.

What’s extra is that each scouts and stats actually preferred Arcia’s upside as a prospect. He was the ZiPS no. 26 prospect earlier than the 2015 season, then rose to no. 4, sandwiched between J.P. Crawford and Dansby Swanson, earlier than 2016. And whereas his debut didn’t go nicely, a .277/.327/.407, 2.0 WAR line at age 22 in 2017 for Milwaukee was extraordinarily promising. Let’s return to the 2016 projection for a second; the place did ZiPS suppose Arcia could be now?

Maybe the error wasn’t the projections and expectations for him, however the throwing in of the towel? That 2022 projection is mainly the participant Arcia truly turned out to be in 2022 (the triple-slashes are superficially increased as a result of ZiPS didn’t undertaking final 12 months’s offensive atmosphere again then). That kinda flips the story round a bit; it might imply that Arcia isn’t a utility infielder who lucked right into a beginning job, however a former high prospect who made a triumphant comeback.

Should Grissom play nicely over the remainder of April, it could re-ignite the place battle that seemed to be settled for the quick time period. But possibly that’s not true in any respect; possibly the query isn’t whether or not Arcia or Grissom lose their beginning gig once they get again, however one thing else totally? We didn’t anticipate the Braves to get a lot out of left subject this 12 months, and to this point, they haven’t, as Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna, Kevin Pillar, and a recreation of Sam Hilliard have mixed for a .466 OPS on the place. While the place received’t keep fairly that weak, it was lengthy anticipated that left and DH (held down by Ozuna, who’s been terrible) have been the staff’s weak spots. What if the odd-man out at shortstop turns into the even-man in at third base (if the staff needs to revisit Austin Riley in left subject briefly) or in left themselves? An Arcia/Harris/Ronald Acuña Jr. outfield may very well be fairly the boon for the staff’s flyball pitchers.

At its core, the Braves having a minor controversy at shortstop is barely an issue in the event that they make it one. Having an excessive amount of expertise has been an precise drawback for exactly zero groups in baseball historical past. Atlanta has different wants; Arcia’s harm and Grissom’s stint because the starter might find yourself with the “Grissom or Arcia?” reply being “why not both?”